Who will win the 2022 Qipco 2,000 Guineas based on previous trends?

The first Classic of the season, the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, takes place on Saturday at Newmarket. We've taken a look at previous trends to try to help pick the winner.

3.40 Newmarket Saturday: Qipco 2,000 Guineas racecard and betting

Fitness

A trial run ahead of the Group 1 race is not as crucial as you would think and since 2010, only four winners ran as a three-year-old prior to their 2,000 Guineas victory.

Of those four, Makfi (2010), Frankel (2011) and Poetic Flare (2021) made a winning reappearance, with 2014 winner Night Of Thunder finishing second to Kingman in the Greenham.

Those who have backed Coroebus and Luxembourg can take comfort in this trend, although supporters of Native Trail should not be too disheartened following his emphatic Craven Stakes win.

Rating

It takes a smart horse to win the 2,000 Guineas. Since 2010, nine winners have been officially rated 110 or higher, with Makfi (unrated), Night Of Thunder (109) and Poetic Flare (109) the three horses to buck that trend.

Seven winners were rated 116 or higher, which highlights the daunting task for those who did not shine as a juvenile.

Only one horse clears a rating of 116 in this year's Guineas field, with Godolphin's Native Trail maintaining his rating of 122 attained at the end of a stellar unbeaten two-year-old campaign.

Native Trail: holds the highest official rating of 122 in the Guineas fieldCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Irish-trained

Irish dominance is not reserved for the jumps and since 2012, seven winners were trained in Ireland.

Aidan O'Brien (5) and Jim Bolger (2) have dominated proceedings and with the 2010 winner Makfi hailing from France, there is certainly no home advantage in this Classic contest.

The market would suggest British-trained runners hold the upper hand this year, with Native Trail and Coroebus both trained by Charlie Appleby in Newmarket, but Luxembourg is the chief Irish danger in the field.

Draw

There is a definite advantage to being drawn low in the 2,000 Guineas, with eight of the previous 12 winners drawn in stall nine or lower.

Field sizes must come into account, however, and the bias over which side is best to race on can shift from year to year.

With this trend, is it best to use some caution, and pay strong attention to the prior races in the card to see which side of the track runners are favouring.

Price

Starting at the head of the market has little impact on the likelihood of success in the race, with five of the last 12 winners carrying the favourites tag.

That being said, the last winning favourite was Churchill in 2017 and on paper that is another negative for Native Trail, though the winning favourites have unsurprisingly been the classier winners of the race, including Camelot and Frankel.

Verdict

The narrow selection is Luxembourg, an Irish-trained son of 2012 winner Camelot who arrives fresh, one of several big-race pointers in his favour.

Luxembourg: leading chance for the 2,000 Guineas field based on prior trendsCredit: Edward Whitaker

Rated 115, he fits the general trend on ratings and is just one below the 116-threshold, while also following the trend of not starting favourite – barring a significant market shift away from the Godolphin runners.

With the Aidan O'Brien-trained runner drawn low in stall four, he fits all five trends and could give the Irish another Classic triumph on Saturday.

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If you want more on the Qipco 2,000 Guineas:

Checkandchallenge 'the best-value outsider' in 2,000 Guineas, says John Gosden

Confirmed runners and riders for the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday

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