The Cesarewitch's biggest upsets of the last decade - and who might join the list this year?

Big handicaps can throw up some big-priced upsets and the Cesarewitch at Newmarket is no different.

The £175,000 race has seen its fair share of shock results, with winners returning at odds as big as 66-1 and an average winning price of 16-1 over the past decade.

Here’s a look back at some of the biggest upsets in recent years and top tipster Harry Wilson flags up a 25-1 outsider who could repeat the feat this Saturday (3.40).

2015 – Grumeti 50-1

Grumeti caused the biggest-priced upset in the last decade when he snatched victory at a huge 50-1 by a tight margin.

The Alan King-trained gelding arrived having not won on the Flat since 2012. His only success that year came in a novice chase at Plumpton in January.

Grumeti (far side) winning the Cesarewitch Credit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Grumeti came into the race after three months on the sidelines with question marks over the trip, having finished midfield in the Stayers’ Stakes at York when last seen.

The race looked wide open in the final furlong, with half the field seemingly in with a chance, but as others began to fade, the seven-year-old stole the show by edging out 7-1 shot Oriental Fox by a short head.

2024 – Alphonse Le Grande 33-1

The joy of jockey Jamie Powell and the owners of Alphonse Le Grande could be shortlived

Jockey Jamie Powell and trainer Cathy O'Leary with Alphonse Le Grande's owners after the raceCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

When Alphonse Le Grande crossed the line, he became the centre of the most high-profile disqualification since the new whip rules came into force at the start of 2023.

Apprentice Jamie Powell rode the 33-1 shot, who surged late to score by a nose, but the result was overturned three days later after it was ruled he had used his whip four times over the permitted level.

In a dramatic twist, Cathy O'Leary's runner was reinstated on appeal when it emerged Powell had used his whip one shy of the disqualification threshold required.

Nonetheless, it was surprising to see the five-year-old sent off at such a big price. While he lacked standout form on soft ground, he finished eighth in the 30-runner Irish Cesarewitch and earlier in the summer landed the Northumberland Vase to complete a hat-trick.

2019 – Stratum 25-1

The first three home were double-figure prices but it was Stratum who defied his 25-1 odds to give Willie Mullins back-to-back wins in the race.

Stratum had made no impression when sent off at 6-1 the previous year and despite having shown a couple of solid efforts on testing ground in the past, soft conditions saw his price drift into double figures this time round.

Stratum (Jason Watson, blue) wins the Cesarewitch at Newmarket in October

Stratum (blue) beating 50-1 outsiders in the raceCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

The gelding’s form had been patchy over hurdles and on the Flat. However, he had run with credit in tough company, including a midfield finish in the Galway Hurdle before arriving here.

However, Stratum put that all behind him as he pulled clear of the field approaching the final furlong, ahead of 50-1 shots, Party Playboy and Summer Moon, with Mullins’ six-year-old prevailing by half a length.

Who could cause an upset this year?

Surrey Belle

Odds: 25-1

By Harry Wilson

Eight of the last ten winners had no more than three runs on the Flat that season and seven had run over hurdles or fences, so the Cesarewitch has turned into a bit of a guessing game about which jumper might be best equipped to transfer their ability.

The Irish have dominated this contest recently, winning six of the last seven runnings, but there's no reason to think Adrian Keatley's Surrey Belle won't outrun her odds of 25-1.

Surrey Belle winning over hurdles at NewcastleCredit: John Grossick (racingpost.com/photos)

She has taken her form to a new level since joining the yard in December, with form figures of 221161 over hurdles and 221 on the Flat.

Her last victory saw her bolt up by eight lengths from a subsequent winner in a 1m5f handicap at Ayr after 103 days off the track last month, for which she is due a 10lb rise. However, she gets to run under a 4lb penalty here, so is officially 6lb well in.

Surrey Belle proved she stayed this far when narrowly beaten in the Chester Plate in May, form that looks solid, and there is every chance she’ll get the run of the race in front.