'It should ring alarm bells' - illegal black market operators on track to overtake regulated firms for UK gambling spend, new research warns

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Black market bookmakers will spend £1 billion on advertising their illegal activity in the UK by 2028, exceeding the total of all regulated firms like Coral and William Hill, according to a new independent analysis.

Such a "tectonic shift" in the marketplace is anticipated to set alarm bells ringing in Westminster and is the latest warning following interjections from leading trainer John Gosden and BHA chief executive Brant Dunshea over the weekend about the growth of the black market, amid concerns the problem could deepen if affordability checks are introduced by the Gambling Commission. There are fears that could happen as soon as next month following a pilot.

New research from the World Advertising Research Center (WARC) found black market operators are projected to grow their advertising spend by 32 per cent to £845 million by October, with the total UK gambling advertising market forecast to reach £1.9bn by then.

Licensed firms are expected to reduce their gambling advertising spend by more than nine per cent to £1.1bn this year, and it is forecast that by 2028 regulated operators will account for less than half of advertising spend, while unregulated operators' promotional outlay is expected to exceed £1bn by then.

WARC, a global marketing intelligence business, said: "While ad spend within the UK’s gambling sector is set to rise to £1.9bn this year, WARC research has found that there is a two-speed market at play, with almost all growth now being driven by unlicensed firms.

“These operators are predominately based overseas and are paying ever-increasing amounts to reach UK consumers online via search and social media. Sponsorship too is heavily leveraged by unregulated firms who are, collectively, set to account for over more than half of sponsorship ad spend in the gambling sector next year.

“Most significantly, unlicensed operators are on course to account for more than half of all ad spend within the gambling sector by 2028; a sign of the tectonic shift currently occurring within the market.” 

MPs are set to debate gambling advertising on Thursday afternoon, and the Betting and Gaming Council's (BGC) chief executive Grainne Hurst has called on the government to focus on tackling illegal firms to stop the issue from spiralling out of control.

"This should ring alarm bells in Westminster," she said. “The real question is whether advertising is coming from regulated operators, who are held to strict standards, or from the harmful illegal black market, which operates entirely outside the rules.

BGC chief executive Grainne Hurst: "The government must go further and faster"

"Targeting licensed operators when their advertising spend is already falling will not reduce overall advertising, it will simply bolster the harmful illegal black market, which is aggressively targeting UK customers.

“The government must go further and faster to clamp down on the black market before it is too late."

The BGC also warned the introduction of affordability checks, alongside other pressures on the industry like tax increases announced in last year's budget, risks accelerating the growth of the black market by making the regulated sector less competitive. 

Hurst called on the government to pause the rollout of the checks  – termed financial risk assessments by the Gambling Commission – in a Racing Post column this week. 

The UK government's increase in remote gaming duty to 40 per cent – up from 21 per cent – this month is also expected to put pressure on gambling advertising spend.

The warning comes after Google revealed it had to remove more than 270 million gambling advertisements last year in its bid to tackle illegal betting content. 

Google's Ad Safety Report said gambling was the third-biggest category for restricted ads at just under 124 million, while it was the eighth-biggest category of banned ads. Nearly ten million page violations of gambling and gaming also occurred in 2025.

Read more:

The evidence has spoken and it’s time to listen: financial risk assessments need to be reconsidered 

'Affordability checks are already pushing people into unprotected places' - John Gosden calls on government to grasp black market issue 

'Our sport's in danger if we don't get it right' - Kim Bailey warns of impending disaster for racing due to affordability checks 

Save Our Bets campaign launched in Grand National week

To add your signature to the campaign against affordability checks, visit https://saveourbets.eaction.org.uk/ and follow the instructions. 

The Racing Post also wants to hear from you: What has been your experience of affordability checks? It's a chance for your voice to be heard. Email the Racing Post at editor@racingpost.com with the subject 'Affordability checks' to share your experiences and your contact details.