How important is the November meeting for finding Cheltenham Festival winners? The answer might surprise you

Cheltenham's November meeting has traditionally been considered a strong source for identifying winners at the festival four months later.

But last season was the first time since 2012-13 that no Cheltenham Festival winner even ran at the November meeting.

The most high-profile of the 39 horses who ran at both meetings was Jonbon, who fluffed his lines when sent off favourite for the Champion Chase.

Unexpected Party, who was fourth behind Jonbon in the Shloer Chase in November,  finished runner-up when attempting to land the Grand Annual for the second successive year.

Then there was East India Dock, who, like Jonbon, was a November meeting winner sent off favourite at the festival. But he lost his unbeaten hurdling record when third in the Triumph.

The importance of the meeting as a font of future festival winners has been in noticeable decline since the pandemic. Unexpected Party was the only 2024 festival winner to have been seen at the track in the previous November, in the feature £160,000 handicap.

Likewise, The Real Whacker was the only 2023 festival winner to have participated in the same season's November meeting, making a successful start over fences in the now Listed 3m½f novice chase before denying Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase.

This decline is stark when you compare it to a decade ago, when nine of the winners at the 2016 festival had been seen at Cheltenham in November. Five of those were doubling up, with Sprinter Sacre taking his second Champion Chase after getting back to winning ways in the Shloer Chase and stablemate Altior beginning his path to stardom with Supreme success.

Ballyandy (red): won at the November meeting and then the festivalCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

Ballyandy followed up his Listed victory in the Champion Bumper before Unowhatimeanharry became the fourth winner from that Greatwood Hurdle Sunday card to also score at the festival, when progressing from handicap company to land the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.

The feat of Josies Orders, who completed a cross-country double, is guaranteed not to be matched this season as the cross-country contest which usually takes place in November has been moved to Trials day in January due to quick conditions. The veterans' handicap chase that has replaced it hardly screams potential festival winners, given the age of the participants.

The unseasonably dry weather this year and the evidence of recent seasons means that other long-term wagers for the later spring festivals, on likely faster ground, may be worth concentrating on. 

Seo Linn and Deep Cave won at Aintree’s Grand National meeting, alongside the more obvious Jonbon, after running at Cheltenham last November, while the JP McManus-owned pair Thanksforthehelp and Petit Tonnerre struck at the Punchestown festival after being comfortably beaten at the November meeting.

The days of 2013-14, when eight festival winners ran at the November meeting (with two winning at both), or even as recently in 2021, when Tiger Roll, Mrs Milner, Sky Pirate, Put The Kettle On and The Shunter (when the latter two won at both) all participated at Cheltenham’s main autumn fixture, seem long gone. 

Be wary when making those ante-post bets.

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