Help or hindrance: what do the stats say about Godolphin pair's extreme draws?

The draw for Saturday's Qipco 2,000 Guineas on Thursday gave us a fascinating subplot with the Godolphin big guns, first and second in the market, drawn right out on the extremes on either wing. Native Trail has been drawn in stall 15 of 15, with second favourite Coroebus in stall one. But is this likely to be a help or a hindrance?

The first thing to note is that switching stalls and configurations on the Rowley Mile makes draw analysis difficult. A top-level view, across the last ten years, is best for painting a general picture and the specifics of Saturday's configuration, and pace make-up, could change things.

Looking at the figures for races over a mile only with at least ten runners shows a slight advantage to being drawn low (stalls one to four), nearest the far rail. Over the last ten years, from 610 runners in those stalls 51 have won, giving a strike of 8.4 per cent. Stall one in particular has a noticeably higher average percentage of rivals beaten compared to other stalls, which shows that even if runners from that stall do not win they are more likely to be to the fore at the finish.

There is a slight drop in performance for runners drawn in five and six, a strike of 6.3 per cent, and an upturn again for those drawn higher, a strike of 8.2 per cent. This fits with the perception that the preference is to be drawn towards one side or the other on the Rowley Mile, something the poorest-performing stalls will never be in the field sizes sampled.

That suggests Godolphin have got lucky with Native Trail and Coroebus being drawn on the wings on Saturday, rather than the dreaded middle stalls. That said, which side pans out best in the Guineas will depend on various factors outside the scope of this article and the patterns observed on Friday's racing are likely to give punters a clue – and it is hard to see a scenario that would favour both.

3.40 Newmarket Saturday: Qipco 2,000 Guineas racecard and betting

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The Front Runner is our latest email newsletter available exclusively to Members' Club Ultimate subscribers. Chris Cook, a four-time Racing Reporter of the Year award winner, provides his take on the day's biggest stories and tips for the upcoming racing every morning from Monday to Friday