2,000 Guineas market 'crying out for someone to take it by the scruff of the neck' - so will the Dewhurst help it make sense?
A major question looks set to be answered this weekend as a wide-open 2,000 Guineas market could spring to life thanks to Saturday's Darley Dewhurst Stakes.
The Newmarket Group 1 has produced plenty of Guineas winners in the past and looks poised once more to have major implications on the betting for next year's Classic.
The current Guineas market is 10-1 the field but Saturday's race features three leading players and a dive into the records suggests it could be worth taking advantage of some big odds while they last. The 2,000 Guineas market may be about to get the favourite it so desperately needs.
What is the state of play?
As it stands, three candidates head the Classic market in Royal Lodge winner Bow Echo, Ballydoyle's Albert Einstein and Godolphin's Distant Storm. The trio are around 10-1 for next year's Guineas and there is a big gap in the market for a star player to make their presence felt at Newmarket this week.
Distant Storm is the obvious candidate to improve his odds on Saturday. The Night Of Thunder colt won a hot maiden at Newmarket in July and has since won over the Dewhurst course and distance when running away with the Tattersalls Stakes, and is likely to be sent off favourite on Saturday.
The other obvious candidate is Gstaad, a 12-1 Guineas shot for the formidable operation of Aidan O'Brien. Ballydoyle's last Dewhurst winner was the sensational City Of Troy but, unlike the 2023 winner, this year's contender arrives off the back of two Group 1 defeats.
"The current Guineas market with a 9-1 favourite is crying out for something to take it by the scruff of the neck and as Britain's most prestigious juvenile contest, the Dewhurst may well do just that were Distant Storm or Gstaad to win really well," said Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield.
“If that happens, you could be looking at a sub 3-1 favourite, with Distant Storm trained by Charlie Appleby, who has saddled three of the last four Guineas winners and Gstaad in the superbly capable hands of Aidan O’Brien, the winning most handler in the first British Classic with ten successes."
The other leading Guineas hope is Zavateri, who narrowly got the better of Gstaad in the National Stakes last month and is similarly 12-1 for next year's Classic.
Binfield added: “Zavateri is arguably the best British two-year-old and if he prevails, it will propel him to favouritism, but he is likely to be a bigger price, just because his trainer doesn't have the fancy Classic record her two aforementioned colleagues possess.
“If something outside of those three were to score, the market will probably experience quite a bit of turbulence and will very likely take a reshaping."
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How could the Classic market change?
Past runnings of the Dewhurst Stakes suggest not only is it probable that a Guineas' favourite will emerge, but they are also likely to hold on to their market lead until the spring.
Since 2000, nine winners of the Dewhurst (from 16 runners) have subsequently gone off favourite in the 2,000 Guineas, and in the last decade it has become an even more common occurrence, with five of the last seven horses bidding to complete the Dewhurst-Guineas double heading the market.
The prices of Dewhurst winners in the Guineas have also largely shortened in the period between October and May. Shadow Of Light was the only Dewhurst winner this decade to go off the same price as he was cut to in October (maintaining at 6-1), while the rest have been cut over the winter, including three backed into odds-on shots.
As a result, this week could be the final window for punters to get value for the Guineas, with Coral's David Stevens unsure of what to expect in the Classic market once the dust settles at Newmarket on Saturday.
He said: "The Dewhurst is well established as one of, if not the, most important race for juvenile colts when it comes to the following season's 2,000 Guineas ante-post market and this year's Guineas betting is crying out for a clear-cut market leader, as we currently have ten horses priced between 10-1 and 16-1 for the race.
"A decisive victory for any of Distant Storm, Gstaad and Zavateri will see them emerge as that clear favourite for the Guineas. Such a victory would probably see their odds fall to around the 4-1 or 5-1 mark, so still some way off City Of Troy, who was evens after his Dewhurst success.
"However, with the Dewhurst betting itself very close, we could see one of the trio win only narrowly, in which case their Guineas price may shorten by only a couple of points. The picture may not necessarily be that much clearer by Saturday night, although we would at least have the prospect of an open and competitive 2,000 Guineas to look forward to next May."
Will the Dewhurst winner follow up in May?
While past runnings suggest we are set for a new 2,000 Guineas favourite on Saturday, it far from guarantees a future Classic winner.
Of the 16 runners to have contested the Guineas after landing the Dewhurst, just five have succeeded, with 2023 scorer Chaldean the only one to complete the double this decade.
Most recently, the Futurity Trophy has proved a more accurate read on the 2,000 Guineas instead, with Saxon Warrior (2018), Magna Grecia (2019) and Kameko (2020) all converting the Group 1 success into Classic glory. The Doncaster contest is set to be staged on October 25.
2,000 Guineas (Newmarket, May 2)
Coral: 10 Albert Einstein, Bow Echo, Distant Storm, 12 Benvenuto Cellini, Gstaad, Puerto Rico, Wise Approach, Zavateri, 14 Constitution River, 16 Publish, 20 Italy, Wild Desert, 25 bar.
Read more:
Confirmed runners and riders for the Dewhurst and Cesarewitch at Newmarket on Saturday
'He can prove a class above the opposition' - why this horse can win on Saturday
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