Classic pointers as Roaring Lion bids to cap incredible season in style

Breeders' Cup Classic (Grade 1) | 1m2f | Dirt | 3yo+ | ATR

In Justify’s absence, the 35th Breeders’ Cup Classic has in recent days been damned with the faint praise of being one of the most open editions of the Grade 1 in years.

That may be true, and there is no denying the void left by a horse who made such a colossal yet fleeting impact, but there is no shortage of contenders to light up the ninth edition of the race at Churchill Downs.

Viewed through a European prism, Roaring Lion is the one with the blue-chip credentials.

Beaten but by no means disgraced in four of his five starts before the Coral-Eclipse, Qatar Racing's talented colt seemed to find plenty of improvement for dropping to that 1m2f trip at Sandown after finishing a gallant third over two furlongs further in the Derby.

The Kitten’s Joy colt stamped varying degrees of authority on the Eclipse, Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes, before then demonstrating tremendous courage when dropped back to a mile for the QEII two weeks ago.

Despite struggling to go the early pace, he kept finding for Oisin Murphy and eventually ground out a triumph that enhanced his claim to the title of Europe's best middle-distance colt.

The challenge now, though, is to replicate that level of superiority and resolve at Churchill Downs when he races on dirt for a first time, on what is his swansong before a new career at stud at Tweenhills.

It seems almost a given that Murphy won’t look to race prominently on him, so, unless they conjure some other tactical masterplan, Roaring Lion will need to call on all of his undoubted resilience to absorb the sheets of dirt that are going to be thrust incessantly in his face.

“It's a huge challenge,” said trainer John Gosden, who won the 2008 Classic with Raven’s Pass. “He won the QEII only two weeks ago, but he's travelled incredibly well.

Raven's Pass: winner of the Classic in 2008Credit: Edward Whitaker

"I think he’ll handle the surface – it’s all about the kickback. When they get dirt in their face and are not used to it, they start losing the rhythm of their breathing and that’s a big problem. He's going to see a lot of dirt from stall two.

"He handles most conditions and won on soft ground at Ascot – he loathed it, but he still won. He's a tough cookie. Since the Dante he has been an extraordinary horse to train as he has an extraordinary constitution.”

O'Brien seeks first Classic with Mendelssohn

Mendelssohn’s preparation could hardly have been any more different from that of Roaring Lion.

Last year’s Juvenile Turf winner couldn’t cope with the gruelling slop in the Kentucky Derby, so Aidan O’Brien sought to ensure he would return to the Louisville circuit for this championship event better prepared.

O’Brien, who has saddled 11 top-level winners at the meeting but has never gone closer in the Classic than when Giant’s Causeway was denied by Tiznow in a Churchill Downs epic in 2000, sent him back Stateside to contest three more dirt races.

The Scat Daddy colt improved with each start, but still had no answer to Catholic Boy in the Travers, or to Discreet Lover and Thunder Snow in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Mendelssohn: set to peak for the ClassicCredit: Edward Whitaker

It was always about peaking here on November 3, but it remains to be seen if O’Brien can squeeze enough improvement out of him to finally deliver a Classic for Ballydoyle.

“It's a different preparation than we’ve ever done before,” O’Brien said.

“We kept him at home where we felt we could control his exercise and keep him safe in between runs, and all we had to do then was get back without him stressing him too much. He has a very good constitution and we think he's relaxed.

“We’ve always taught him to race hard and race fast and forward, and we feel he's in a better place now than he was going to the Kentucky Derby. He knows what’s expected now."

O'Brien added: “We're changing things all the time so it'll be very interesting, but you have to have the horse first. He's by Scat Daddy and a brother to a very good dirt filly, so it's exciting.”

Accelerate team hopeful of overcoming draw

Accelerate just about headed the market with British and Irish bookmakers on Friday night having readily beaten last year’s Breeders' Cup Classic third West Coast in the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita to complete a Grade 1 hat-trick.

He has improved markedly from the horse that finished just third in the 2016 Dirt Mile, and it will be fascinating to see if John Sadler can eke a bit more improvement out of him to win a Classic from the widest stall in 14.

Accelerate: drawn widest of all in stall 14Credit: Benoit Photography

Sadler said: “He's a really good horse, has a great record this year, and he's probably beaten 40 or 50 Bob Baffert horses at different times.

"The 14 is actually a good post because you're out in the clear and you have enough time to make a trip. That's actually not a bad post at all.”

Bin Suroor compares Thunder to Swain and Sakhee

Thunder Snow’s unruly behaviour put paid to his 2017 Kentucky Derby hopes but he has since redeemed himself, recording his third Grade 1 win when giving West Coast a near six-length beating in the Dubai World Cup.

Thunder Snow (white cap): winner of the Dubai World CupCredit: Edward Whitaker

He is charged with becoming the first horse to win that and the Classic in the same year, and would also be a first winner in the race for Sheikh Mohammed, whose Swain and Sakhee both fell just short.

“He's similar to Swain and Sakhee in that he's a class horse," said trainer Saeed Bin Suroor. "Unlike them, he's won on the dirt already. He won on dirt going a mile and a quarter and he has speed.”

Leading trainer Baffert fires two bullets

Bob Baffert, the meeting’s leading trainer with 14 winners, is vying for a fourth Classic in five years with West Coast and Mckinzie, who is closing in on favouritism with British and Irish firms.

Last year’s third West Coast is admirably consistent, while Mckinzie remains an unknown quantity who has passed the post first in each of his five starts.

He was disqualified after winning at Santa Anita in the spring and picked up an injury that kept him off the track until he returned to defeat the re-opposing Axelrod in the Pennsylvania Derby in September.

McKinzie (blue noseband): may be lacking a runCredit: Benoit Photo

“McKinzie is fast enough to win it but he has had only the one race off the layoff, so you don’t know,” Baffert said.

“He hasn’t had the racing the others have. It’s a big Classic field and the first quarter-mile is so important for the trip they'll get. We figure that Mendelssohn will probably be fighting for the lead early with one of mine, so we'll see what happens.

"With the right trip Mckinzie could run well. He's a fast horse and is getting better, so I’m feeling pretty good about it."

He added: “West Coast has the maturity, and he gets a mile and a quarter, so I like him. He has a gap to bridge, but you're always hoping."

Thomas hopes Boy conquers elders

Like Mckinzie, Catholic Boy, trained by rookie handler Jonathan Thomas, is another three-year-old who missed all of the Triple Crown events.

Beaten less than two lengths by Mendelssohn in the Juvenile Turf, he has bloomed following a break after bleeding in the Florida Derby in March.

He won for a third time on the spin when crushing Mendelssohn in the Travers in August, having previously won his first Grade 1 in the Belmont Derby.

Catholic Boy: tackles elders for the first timeCredit: Jessie Holmes/EquiSport Photos

“It could become a rider’s race, or whoever gets the best trip,” said Thomas. "It’s Catholic Boy’s first time against his elders. That’s a big leap and we're aware of that.

"From his training, how he approaches his races and how generous he’s been while running, I think he’s going to give a very good account of himself.”

Is this trip suitable for Biscuits?

Perhaps the most intriguing contender is Mind Your Biscuits. No-one who saw the incredible turn of foot that enabled him to secure the Golden Shaheen at Meydan in March could possibly have envisaged him lining up in the Classic over 1m2f.

But here we are. Connections had the choice of the Sprint, Dirt Mile and Classic, and chose the biggest pot of them all over the longest distance.

Mind Your Biscuits' cause at Meydan looked hopeless turning into the straight, but he made up relentless ground to win by a head, since when connections have tried to harness that potent turn of foot over a mile or further.

Mind Your Biscuits: will need to prove he stays the tripCredit: Jessie Holmes/EquiSport Photos

After finishing second twice in Grade 1s, he beat Toast Of New York by four and three-quarter lengths in a Grade 3 at this track.

Trainer Chad Summer said: “He's going a mile and a quarter for a first time and we won’t find out until we try. The way he's handled himself since the Met Mile showed us he can handle the extra distance.”

Yoshida looks to score for Mott?

Bill Mott, who won with Cigar in 1995 and Drosselmeyer in 2011, relies on Yoshida, who finished fifth on his Royal Ascot foray in the Queen Anne.

He comes here on the back of a second Grade 1 success at Saratoga, where he beat the reopposing Gunnevera.

Yoshida: bids to make it three winners in the race for Bill MottCredit: Churchill Downs/Coady Photography

Yoshida was around a 12-1 chance on Friday and, quoted by Bloodhorse, Mott said: "I don't think you can be overly confident when you're in these kinds of races.

"The competition is world-class. We've got the best horses in the country, it's a big purse, everyone will be trying hard. My confidence is as least as good as it was with Drosselmeyer."

What the others say

Antonio Sano, trainer of Gunnevera
I’m so happy with my horse right now. Last year it was different. The horse was good, but right now he’s doing better. He’s more mature.

Tom Amoss, trainer of Lone Sailor
I hope the pace materialises like I see it on paper with more than one horse and sets it up for a closer.

Doug O’Neill, trainer of Pavel
He’s all good. He always seems to run following a trip. Churchill Downs happens to be a favourite track for him. Winning the Stephen Foster shows that.

Mike McCarthy, trainer of Axelrod
I expect Axelrod to be laying sort of close but in a very manageable situation. He’ll do whatever the rider asks of him. He can lay close to the pace or a little off it. We always expect him to fire.

Uriah St Lewis, trainer of Discreet Lover
The harder they go, the more it will suit him. People expect him to fall back, but that won’t happen. His stamina is his strength so he'll be coming at them in the straight.

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