World Cup Golden Boot race: predictions, latest odds and betting offer

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Just eight teams remain in the hunt to win the 2026 World Cup but it's still a wide-open competition and the same applies to the Golden Boot race as the tournament in the United States, Canada and Mexico reaches the quarter-finals.

Lionel Messi leads the way on eight goals after his dramatic equaliser in Argentina's 3-2 round-of-16 victory over Egypt, but the big guns of the game are right behind him with France's Kylian Mbappe and Norway's Erling Haaland on seven goals each and England's Harry Kane on six.

New customers signing up for an account with Matchbook PredictStreet to bet on the Golden Boot race can add extra value to their World Cup bets when they claim the generous Bet £20, Get £26 in Free Bets offer using the bonus code WC2026. 

Read on for more details of how the site works and the simple steps to take to claim the offer.

Claim the PredictStreet World Cup offer

Matchbook PredictStreet is an innovative new way of betting and their World Cup offer is the perfect opportunity to give it a try and see if it's for you.

The site uses simple Yes or No options for a wide range of betting opportunities, with the return expressed as a percentage rather than traditional bookmaker odds.

The best way to get to grips with it is to dive in and have a go and the excellent introductory offer enables you to do that while taking advantage of some free bets.

• Sign up using WC2026
• Place and settle a first bet of £20 or more to receive £26 of free bets within 24 hours.
• The free bets will consist of 2 x £10 free bets to be used on prediction markets PLUS a £3 free bet on the World Cup outright winner market and a £3 free bet for use on the World Cup Golden Boot winner market.

In order to get started and claim your offer, simply click any of the links on this page to register with Matchbook PredictStreet.

Who is leading the World Cup Golden Boot race?

The 2026 World Cup Golden Boot race is set to be the highest-scoring contest for more than 50 years with some of the game's top names in sensational scoring form in North America.

Lionel Messi already has eight goals for Argentina, a total which would have been more than enough to win the award at four of the last five tournaments and equals the figure that won the 2022 prize for Kylian Mbappe.

No more than six goals were needed to win from 2006 to 2018, and a double-figure tally may be needed to take it this time, which has not been seen since Gerd Muller scored 10 goals for West Germany at Mexico 1970.

Three other players from eliminated teams also have four goals but can no longer win

How does PredictStreet work?

PredictStreet uses prediction markets instead of traditional fixed-odds betting, so for each betting question there is a simple Yes or No answer such as: Will England win the match against Norway or will Lionel Messi win the Golden Boot? 

All odds are expressed as percentages and fluctuate depending on the stakes on each outcome, with the lower percentages providing the greatest returns.

Bet Yes or No

Selecting your bet could not be simpler as you just have to select Yes or No on whether an event will happen. For example, if you think France will win the World Cup, select Yes, or if you think Harry Kane will not be the top tournament goalscorer, you can select No in the Harry Kane to win the Golden Boot market.

Understand the market probability

All market odds are displayed as percentages rather than decimal or fractional odds, making them easier for newcomers to understand. So, in the above examples, the odds for France to win the World Cup were available at 33% at the time of writing, while Harry Kane not to win the Golden Boot were 91.7%.

If you think the prospects of a bet landing are higher than the Yes price, you might want to back that option, or if you think the chances of an event happening are even lower than the No price, that could be an attractive option.

Watch the market move

The odds on Matchbook PredictStreet are not static and will fluctuate as users express their opinions by selecting the Yes/No options on each proposition. If a majority of users select the Yes option, the percentage of that selection will increase and the return will in turn decrease, while the percentage for No will be reduced and offer a greater return.

Golden Boot favourites

There are four clear front-runners in the World Cup Golden Boot market after the round of 16, with an elite group of forwards having scored six or more goals while no other player currently has more than four.

With the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final or third-place playoff to come, some contenders will have three more matches to add to their tally, but at least one of the top four will bow out this weekend as England face Norway in the quarter-finals, so either Harry Kane or Erling Haaland will take no further part in the tournament.

Here's a run-down of how the players got to the top of the goal charts and who has the potential to claim the coveted prize:

Lionel Messi

Lionel Messi is considered the greatest of all time by many football fans but the magical Argentina star has never won a Golden Boot award. He is leading the way this time, however, having scored in all five of his side's matches with eight goals in total.

His lead over the field might easily be even greater as the Inter Miami man has also missed two penalties in the tournament. With a hat-trick against Algeria and a brace against Austria in the group stage, Messi was soon ahead in this competition, but he has some high-class opposition.

Messi is next in action against Switzerland, who have kept two clean sheets in the knockout rounds, with a potential semi-final against England or Norway to follow.

Kylian Mbappe

France's Kylian Mbappe pipped Messi to this award in 2022, scoring eight goals to the Argentinian's seven, and he has been in sensational form again. 

Mbappe scored doubles against Senegal and Iraq in the group stage and added two more against Sweden in the last 32 before netting from the penalty spot against Paraguay. He will next be tested against Morocco, who have conceded only one goal in two knockout games.

Erling Haaland

Erling Haaland is a prolific scorer for Manchester City in the Premier League and has shone for Norway at these finals with seven goals. The imposing striker scored twice against Iraq and Senegal, notched the winner against Ivory Coast and bagged both goals as Brazil were beaten 2-1.

The England defenders who he will face on Saturday know all about his game but that won't make it any easier for them to stop him.

Harry Kane

The England captain won the Golden Boot in 2018 with six goals in Russia and has already matched that tally but is only in fourth place this time. 

Kane scored twice in the first half against Croatia, was on target against Panama, supplied both goals in the last-16 win over DR Congo and scored a penalty against Mexico. With England getting involved in some high-scoring games, he could stay in the hunt if England negotiate a path to the last four.

Jude Bellingham/Ousmane Dembele/Mikel Oyarzabal

The other three top contenders have ground to make up as they have only four goals each.

England's Jude Bellingham is playing in a more advanced role and was the Three Lions' hero against Mexico with a first-half double. 

France's Ousmane Dembele scored three of his four goals with a sensational first-half hat-trick against Norway but has yet to score in the knockout rounds, while Spain's Mikel Oyarzabal has not really grabbed the headlines but netted twice against Austria in the last 16. 

Our World Cup Golden Boot prediction

Kylian Mbappe is one goal behind Lionel Messi at this stage but the fantastic France striker looks to have a strong chance of becoming the first player to retain the World Cup Golden Boot.

While Messi's feats for Argentina have been amazing, his team's shortcomings have seen them on the ropes in back-to-back games against Cape Verde and Egypt and his record of scoring in every match in the tournament is going to be hard to maintain as the standard of opposition increases.

France's sublime attack has been the best in the business when they hit form and Mbappe will remain a threat to add to his tally every time he takes to the pitch.

One of Haaland and Kane will perish from the competition this weekend, and while England have the potential to go further, Kane has not dominated his side's scoring as some of his rivals have. 

The trio on four goals probably have too much ground to make up, although Ousmane Dembele already has one hat-trick and has the most potential to get involved at the top.

Most likely winner

Kylian Mbappe is hard to look past as France look strong contenders to take the title and he has a fantastic chance of exceeding his 2022 tally of eight goals.

Best value selection

Harry Kane can't be counted out entirely. The former winner has scored in four of his five outings and has benefited from an enterprising attacking approach from Thomas Tuchel's team.

Want more top football betting advice? Make sure you take a look at Racing Post Sport's tips for more of the latest picks from our experts.

FAQs

Who is currently leading the World Cup Golden Boot race?

Lionel Messi is one ahead in the race for the Golden Boot with eight goals.

How is the Golden Boot winner decided?

The player to score the most goals at the World Cup wins the award.

What happens if players finish level on goals?

If there is a tie on goals scored, the award goes to the player with most assists. If it is still tied, the player who scored their goals in the fewest minutes wins.

Can I predict the Golden Boot winner with PredictStreet?

Yes, the Golden Boot market is just one of many World Cup markets available on Matchbook ProfitStreet.

How do I claim the Bet £20, Get £26 offer?

Simply register for a new account with Matchbook ProfitStreet using the bonus code WC2026.

Then place and settle a first bet of £20 or more to receive £26 of free bets, which will be 2 x £10 free bets to be used on prediction markets PLUS a £3 free bet on the World Cup outright winner market and a £3 free bet for use on the World Cup Golden Boot winner market. Terms and conditions apply.

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