These draw statistics highlight the huge challenge Constitution River must overcome to win the French Derby

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It’s important not to get sucked into the record of individual stalls when looking at draw statistics because the samples are often small enough to mean that one freak result can significantly affect the results of individual stall numbers. It’s better to clump them together.

The best way to do this is to calculate the percentage of rivals beaten for a rolling three stalls. As a horse’s stall is best thought of as an expression of its position, that is far more accurate.

One look at the graphic for the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly shows that (data from 2010 onwards). The three-stall rolling average is calculated by averaging the percentage of rivals beaten for the stall in question with the two stalls on either side of it and it’s evident that being low is an advantage.