Majborough now has a clear form edge in the Champion Chase - but that doesn't mean he's a good thing

Marine Nationale being withdrawn from the Champion Chase means that we are set to have an odds-on favourite for the race for the ninth time in 11 years. 

The fate of Majborough's forebears should make his backers nervous. Seven of the previous eight lost, which is pretty staggering when you consider that, by definition, these horses have a better chance than the toss of a coin. Two of them have been as short as 2-9, which is close to the statistically accepted chance of a professional footballer scoring a penalty kick.

Surely, if these horses are so well regarded by the betting, they should come into the race with a significant form edge? The reality is not quite so simple. As the graphic shows, only three of the eight were more than 5lb clear on pre-race Racing Post Ratings. They include Altior, the sole odds-on shot to oblige in the last decade. Majborough's edge, which is 3lb over stablemate Il Etait Temps, sits right on the median.