Dunlop's Red Verdon the latest Cup doubt for Europe after bruising heel

Barely a day seems to go by without connections of one of the European horses finding their Melbourne Cup dreams in jeopardy and on Thursday it was the turn of the Red Verdon camp to be put on edge by their charge.

Quite how Ed Dunlop's five-year-old, who races in the Ron Arculli silks made famous in this city by Red Cadeaux, bruised his heel remains a mystery but the team on the ground – travelling head lad Robin Trevor-Jones and work rider Steve Nicholson – have five days to get him right.

"He's got a bruised foot, everything else has been ruled out by the vet, and we're working hard on it now," said Trevor-Jones. "We've got a few days until the race so we've got time to get on it. I've no idea at all how he did it and it's highly annoying as it's just at the wrong time, but we're working on it now.

"The vet's been and x-rayed his leg to rule everything else out, they're all clear, it’s been poulticed. Fingers crossed everything's all right, the farrier felt it'd be a 24-hour issue but it's just at an annoying time as everything's fantastic with him. He's missed a gallop today which is annoying, but Steve and I are working hard on this foot now as we've got to draw all the soreness out of it. We've got five days."

It is not the first time Red Verdon has caused Trevor-Jones's blood pressure to sky-rocket on this trip, he had to pass the vet to run in the Caulfield Cup and he added: "He got some dermatitis on his skin, so he just likes throwing us these curve balls."

Of those based at Werribee, Emotionless fractured a pelvis, Hamada had to be put down after breaking down during a piece of work, Count Octave injured a leg, Withhold burst a blood vessel when running in the Geelong Cup and Duretto was ruled out of the race on Wednesday with a stress fracture to his near-fore fetlock, while Cross Counter had a small setback but looks like making the line-up for Charlie Appleby.

Asked if the rather extensive injury list was an issue with the track or it was just bad luck, Trevor-Jones said: "We're just pushing horses to the limit to get them spot on for a massive race."

Among all the bad news there was some good as Kings Will Dream has reportedly come through the worst of it and looks like surviving. He fractured his pelvis and ruptured blood vessels that left him fighting for his life, but his managing owner Brad Spicer tweeted a positive update on Thursday.

What does it take to win the Cup? Hugh Bowman answers

What does it take to win the Lexus Melbourne Cup? Hugh Bowman is still trying to work it out.

Winx's jockey may be world-renowned with 1,982 career wins and 83 Group 1s to his name, but he is yet to win the race that stops a nation.

This year, as last, he partners Hughie Morrison's Marmelo - who was sent off the 6-1 joint-favourite last year after an encouraging sixth in the Caulfield Cup. Morrison wanted to go straight to the Cup but was overruled by the owners. This year he has got his way and while he said "you probably need a Group 1 horse handicapped as a Group 3 horse to win the race and we've a Group 2 horse handicapped as a Group 2 horse so we've a way to go", Bowman is more positive.

That is not necessarily due to Marmelo, but the Cup itself - or more importantly the way the Cup is run. Bowman has ridden the world over and said: "I think European trainers have realised it's an advantage to have an Australian jockey because the way our races are run is different. The pace is a lot different here, there's a lot more urgency early in the race here, then they might slow it up and sprint home. The races aren't run as evenly as in Britain and Ireland, it's much more like French racing.

"Who knows how the Melbourne Cup will be run. Realistically you need to be between 52kg and 55kg to win the Cup, history will tell you that, but to me having ridden in it and having the experience of riding a lot of good horses it's got more to do with the way the race is run than what weight the horses have. You need the horse in the race to peak on the day and if the race is run to suit your horse and you're in the right position – that's how you win it. It's not about getting the horse in with the right weight.

"It's not even a specific type of horse you want. You've got so many different horses coming from so many different places, some are going directly in, others have prepped right through, some are coming off just one run.

"To try and line it all up and assess exactly how the race will be run to start with is impossible because of all those factors, but it's what makes it so intriguing. If it wasn't a handicap the better horses would come and you'd have more of an understanding beforehand how the race would be run."

So what does he make of Marmelo? "He's a bit stronger this year, there's no doubt about that and he appears to have travelled over very well so all of the signs are good. It's well documented Hughie wasn't so keen to run last year in the Caulfield Cup, but he didn't run as well in the Melbourne Cup. We know he's capable of performing well fresh off the plane and he feels good to me.

"It'd be a childhood dream to win the Melbourne Cup and I feel I'm going in on a horse with a realistic chance of doing that but it's a very difficult race to win and there's many chances this year - it's a very open race."

Bowman believes Yucatan is a worthy favourite, but does see one potential question mark. He said: "He's probably the one, just because of the arrogance he won with, but he probably has to improve on that and can he do that? It's rare you see a horse come and run that well and then improve on it again, I'm not saying he can't but it's rare."

Bowman's demand by European trainers stretches back to him riding in Britain and he regularly allows himself to fantasise about riding in Britain again, but the economics of the situation make it very hard for him to leave Australia. "I think this is probably the healthiest place in the world to be a jockey," he said.

"I've ridden most places with the exception of the United States and the good thing here is there's different levels so the top jockeys aren't competing for the rides of the second and third tier jockeys as they're in the country, so that's a great way for youngsters to get started as they don't have to ride against the Ryan Moore's and Richard Hughes's of the world.

"And because it's such a big country we can't be everywhere and the prize-money's so good you don't need to be aligned to a stable or on a retainer to make ends meet, because you can earn good money through winning races.

"I've a lot of close friends in England and Ireland, my wife's Irish, so I've a great connection with that part of the world and it'd be my dream to spend more time there, but the reality is from a business point of view it's not a good option."

Storms expected to make no difference to Flemington ground

Churchill Downs may be facing a deluge, but at Flemington the track is in prime condition. The track is currently a good 4 (on a scale that goes from one to ten, with ten being bottomless) with no variations.

With no rain in the last seven days and a dry forecast with several days getting into the 30s in terms of temperature this week 8mm has been applied in the last 24 hours and 32mm over the week.

Track manager Liam O'Keeffe is preparing the course for Saturday's Derby card and said: "We're on a good 4 this afternoon and we won't be watering tonight as there are storms forecast for tomorrow afternoon. We'll see what, if any, we get out of that but they're forecasting 4mm. If we don't get sufficient rainfall we'll irrigate tomorrow night, we'll play it by ear.

"We'll aim to start on a good 4 and get to a good 3 in the early part of the day, those are the Racing Victoria guidelines and it'll be the same for Cup day, Oaks day and Mackinnon day as apart from the storm tomorrow there's no rain forecast."

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