2021 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: confirmed runners and riders - plus a top tip
Stellar field of 15 declared for Sunday's Group 1 following Teona scratching
Godolphin pair Adayar and Hurricane Lane, the Aga Khan's superstar mare Tarnawa and dual Oaks winner Snowfall have been declared for Sunday's Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe as 15 runners stood their ground on Thursday.
The Roger Varian-trained Teona, who beat Snowfall in the Prix Vermeille this month, misses the race as the ground will be unsuitably soft.
The daughter of Sea The Stars, who was a general 20-1 chance, will nowbe aimed at the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar in November.
Philip Robinson, racing manager to owner Ali Saeed, said: "Teonahas not been declared for the Arc as the ground is set to be soft, which she didn't act on in the Epsom Oaks and took a long time to get over.
"It's a bit frustrating as she's in great form at home but we feel it's best to keep her for the Breeders' Cup."
Most forecasters agree there will be substantial rainfall moving across Paris from late Saturday and into Sunday, although the exact amount is hard to predict.
The going on Thursday morning remained unchanged according to the France Galop penetrometer at soft (3.5), while the Turftrax GoingStick has tightened a fraction at good, good to soft in places or 7.9.
The field for the middle-distance showpiece at Longchamp was reduced to 14 runners at Monday's first forfeit stage and all bar Teona have been declared alongside Adayar and Snowfall, who were bothsupplemented for Sunday's race at a cost of €120,000 on Wednesday.
It was confirmed William Buick would ride Derby and King George hero Adayar last Friday as he bids to win a first Arc for Godolphin since Marienbard's success in 2002, with James Doyle on Hurricane Lane for the first time.
Christophe Soumillon will ride Tarnawa, second in the Irish Champion Stakes to St Mark's Basilica and ante-post favourite at the start of the week.
Aidan O'Brien is well represented with Snowfall (Ryan Moore), Love (Frankie Dettori) and Broome (Yutake Take), while Britain's champion jockey Oisin Murphy is on Japan's Chrono Genesis.
Tarnawa has been drawn favourably in stall three, alongside Hurricane Lane in two. But the draw has been less kind to Adayar in stall 11 and Japanese-trained challenger Chrono Genesis (14), who has only one wider, Raabihah in stall 15.
Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Longchamp, October 3)
Paddy Power: 5-2 Tarnawa, 11-4 Adayar, 4 Hurricane Lane, 5 Snowfall, 12 Love, 14 Chrono Genesis, 20 Deep Bond, Raabihah, 25 Alenquer, 33 Sealiway, 50 Broome, 66 Baby Rider, Bubble Gift, Mojo Star, Torquator Tasso
Paddy Power spokesman Paul Binfield said: "The draw has finally allowed us to separate Tarnawa and Adayar at the head of the market with the former's three berth meaning she's now clear favourite with Adayar eased out a fraction due to a seemingly unfavourable stall 11."
Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runners and expected riders
Torquator Tasso(GER)Rene Piechulek (12)
Deep Bond(JPN) Mickael Barzalona(5)
Chrono Genesis(JPN)Oisin Murphy(14)
Mojo Star(GB)Rossa Ryan(1)
Baby Rider(FR)Ioritz Mendizabal(13)
Hurricane Lane(GB)James Doyle(2)
Bubble Gift(FR) Gerald Mosse(6)
On Friday's What A Shout . . .
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Pedigree punting:Arc verdict and 1-2-3 prediction
2 Hurricane Lane
Much depends on the weather in Paris this week ahead of a potentially seismic clash in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, a race filled with the best European and international talent on offer this year.
Tarnawa, the Aga Khan's daughter of Shamardal and the stakes-winning Cape Cross mare Tarana, has been kept in training purely for a crack at this race following a blistering four-year-old campaign that saw her land the Prix Vermeille, Prix de l'Opera and Breeders' Cup Turf.
After a narrow second to the now retired St Mark's Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes, the return to a mile and a half is much more her bag, especially given her dam won twice over the trip.
Adayar and Hurricane Lane, Godolphin's two Classic-winning Frankel colts, are among the top-class three-year-olds snapping at the older generation's heels.
Derby and King George hero Adayar is the third foal out of the Group 3-winning Irish 1,000 Guineas second Anna Salai, a daughter of Dubawi and from the family of dual French Group 2mile-and-a-half winner Annaba and Park Hill Stakes scorer Anna Of Saxony. He is bred to stay the Arc trip on both sides of his pedigree and the only real concern would be heavy ground as he does not lack for a turn of foot.
His stablemate Hurricane Lane, on the other hand, would arguably enjoy softer conditions based on his race record and pedigree. He was an impressive winner of the St Leger – having earlier landed the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance – but has to overcome the poor record of Leger winners in the Paris showpiece, although he is arguably classier than most who have tried recently.
There are no fears over his stamina, being out of the Shirocco mare Gale Force, who was a French Listed winner over an extended mile and seven furlongs on heavy ground. Gale Force is in turn a half-sister to British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes winner Seal Of Approval.
This season's outstanding three-year-old filly Snowfall heads to Longchamp off the back of a surprise defeat by potential opponent Teona, but it is worth noting the superb record of three-year-old fillies in this race in recent years.
By the late, great Japanese supersire Deep Impact, who caused such excitement at Longchamp 15 years ago, and out of a Group 3-winning sister to 2016 Arc heroine Found, Snowfall has a top-class middle-distance pedigree and arguably sets the standard given how much weight she will receive all round.
Japan has yet to win France's greatest race but they send a live contender in Chrono Genesis, whose second to Mishriff in Dubai reads well in the context of her rivals. By another Arc winner Bago, she was impressive when winning a Japanese Grade 1 in June.
Compatriot Deep Bond, an all-the-way winner over course and distance in the Prix Foy on trials day when readily defeating the high-class Broome, is another not to be underestimated.
The son of Shadai's young sire Kizuna – winner of the Japanese Derby and Prix Niel – has a generally progressive profile and will not lack for stamina, having finished second in the two-mile Tenno Sho in May.
Kitty Trice, Racing Post bloodstock reporter
This content was first published in Kitty Trice's Pedigree Punting column in Wednesday's Racing Post Weekender. Read more from Kitty and star Weekender contributors such as leading tipsters Tom Segal and Paul Kealy and exclusive columnist Ed Walker every week
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