US racing tips: Tom Collins fancies Belmont Stakes winner to justify favouritism

Creed
7.55 Belmont Park
1pt winSir Winston
10.36 Belmont Park
2pts winBelmont Stakes winner Sir Winston is the star attraction at the New York track on its first fixture of the week on Thursday.

The Mark Casse-trained colt caused a shock when he ran away with the final leg of the 2019 Triple Crown this time last year and has since plundered an allowance optional claimer at Aqueduct in January.

He has been off the track since then but now returns to Belmont Park, the scene of his greatest triumph, to contest the feature $80,000 Listed Flat Out Stakes (10.36).

The deep closer looked slightly below top-class level before his Belmont Stakes victory. However, he proved his mettle that day and remains unexposed after just 12 outings.

The form of the race hasn't worked out overly well with the likes of Tacitus and War Of Will failing to win a race since.

However, third-placed Joevia won an allowance optional claimer on his next outing, while fourth home Tax took the Grade 2 Jim Dandy.

Sir Winston let the form down himself when a bitterly disappointing 11th in the Listed Woodchopper Stakes at the Fair Grounds on his return in December, but the long absence and the fact he suffered notable interference early in the contest clearly didn't help his cause.

He bounced back in fine style at Aqueduct last time and has been working extensively at Belmont Park ever since. He should be ready to roll in this contest and with Joel Rosario booked and a decent pace to chase, Sir Winston should gain his fifth career victory.

Thunderstorms and showers are predicted in New York, which means the turf events are at risk of being moved to the dirt, so I'll stick to the main track for the other selection on the card.

That runner is Creed, who will look to record his first success at the second time of asking in the $64,000 maiden special weight (7.55).

Shug McGaughey's son of Honor Code cost $650,000 as a yearling and should have repaid some of his lofty price tag when he made his debut at Tampa Bay Downs at the end of April.

Ridden by Antonio Gallardo in an above-average contest, Creed broke slowly and raced green through the early part of the contest, but he really found his stride entering the turn and moved up into a promising fourth from last position.

Gallardo didn't have his finest moment in the saddle rounding the bend as he forced Creed into a pocket and had to put the brakes on for a good five to ten strides, which allowed the protagonists to scoot clear as Creed tugged for his head behind a fading front-runner.

He showed serious signs of promise once he regathered his stride, though, and mustered a second run at the leaders. He was only denied by three-quarters of a length and would have won with plenty in hand were he granted a clear run.

This represents a tougher contest with the likes of Chad Brown's Cousin Andrew and Todd Pletcher's Ajhar in opposition, but I like his outside post in gate eight and Jose Ortiz is a good jockey booking. His morning line price of 3-1 looks fair and his recent breezes at the track will have him spot on for this.

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