US expert Tom Collins plumps with sharp worker who can strike at Will Rogers

Break At Dawn
7.45 Will Rogers Downs
2pts winWord To The Wise
8.15 Will Rogers Downs
1pt winFloyd Wethey is likely to go further and further clear in the jockey standings at Will Rogers Downs now that he has headed Ty Kennedy, and plenty of punters will get stuck into Santa Ana Winds, who he partners in the $12,650 claimer (7.45) early on the card.

I can certainly see why she will be fancied given her unexposed profile and the fact she comes here on the back of an unlucky second in claiming company at Oaklawn Park, where she beat the reopposing Weekend Madness by three-quarters of a length.

That is good form in the context of this race and both runners should get the required early gallop they need to come home fast and late.

Another runner that will look to do the same thing is Break At Dawn, and I'm hopeful that Danny Pish's runner will get the early jump on the aforementioned duo and never look back.

Break At Dawn is unexposed after just six starts, breaking her duck at the third attempt in a Remington Park maiden special weight contest before finishing outside the money in allowance optional claimers at that track and Sam Houston Park on her subsequent three outings.

Those races were much tougher than this, though, and her last two starts came on the turf, so you can put a line through them.

Her previous fourth at Remington Park was a good effort and if she can get back to that kind of form now that she reverts to dirt, she has to be entering this contest with a huge chance.

Break At Dawn gets 6lb weight-for-age allowance from her elders, which is another plus, and her most recent work at Sam Houston Park caught the eye.

She ran 4f in a sharp 48 seconds flat, which was the fastest time recorded of 56 horses in that session. That is far better than any work she has put in since returning from a break in February and a career-best can be expected.

The following $25,080 allowance (8.15) race is arguably the feature on the card despite being contested by horses who have never won two or more races, and I like the chance of the Word To The Wise.

Francisco Bravo's five-year-old has only had three races in his career, so has clearly had problems, but has performed very well on both outings at this track in the last couple of months and is due a first Will Rogers Downs success.

He was heavily punted on his first start here in late March despite the fact he was returning from a four-month absence, which clearly took its toll in the final furlong.

Word To The Wise showed bright pace in that course-and-distance affair but weakened late, a trait he didn't show last time when sticking on well despite being up with the speed from the outset.

The leaders, which included Word To The Wise, went far too quick in a 6f allowance contest, but he survived by far the longest and looked all over the winner before being collared late by the fast-finishing Ninethirtyturbo, who is a horse on the up.

A repeat effort makes him very hard to beat, especially if he is allowed his own way out in front under Ry Eikleberry.

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