This year's Arc is unique - and here's why the Japanese runners could be the key

This year's Arc has a rather unique look to it, and that's before you consider the possible supplementation of superstar Baaeed.

Of the top eight in the market, five are older horses (Alpinista, Baaeed, Pyledriver, Titleholder and Torquator Tasso), while two are trained in Japan (Do Deuce and Titleholder), a country yet to win the race despite their best efforts.

What does this tell us? Well, punters often latch on to the weight-receiving Classic generation, but they were let down by Emily Upjohn and Westover in the King George, who pulled their chances away.

Of the other European three-year-olds, the Irish Champion Stakes-bound Vadeni could stick to ten furlongs and has yet to prove his aptitude for a mile and a half, while St Leger favourite New London would be dropping down in distance and no horse has ever won the Doncaster race and the Arc in the same season.

Therefore, Alpinista is the shortest price of those actually holding an entry by virtue of doing plenty right in winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and Yorkshire Oaks, but also because she has done the least wrong.

Depending on how harshly you wish to view it, last year's Arc winner Torquator Tasso did something wrong when he was beaten in Sunday's Grosser Preis von Baden as the winner Mendocino had cut little ice in three runs in poorer contests this season.

The chestnut wasn't seen to best effect by the tactical, four-runner affair turning into a sprint, so is perhaps better judged on his excellent second in the King George on quicker-than-ideal ground.

Nevertheless, bookmakers pushed him out to 10-1 to retain his Arc crown, meaning he now represents the filling in the Japanese sandwich of Titleholder and Do Deuce, who are around 8-1 and 14-1 respectively.

Titleholder has been favourite for the race at various junctures this summer, but he was not an instant sensation in his homeland as he could manage only second and sixth in their Guineas and Derby last year.

Titleholder: unbeaten in three starts this year and Japan's leading Arc hopeCredit: Masakazu Takahashi

His peak form coincided with the step up to 1m7f in the Japanese St Leger, and although he was behind two of last year's Arc runners Deep Bond and Chrono Genesis in the 1m4½f Arima Kinen last year, he has bounced back to be unbeaten in three starts in 2022.

He had Deep Bond seven lengths in arrears when a relentless winner of the 2m Tenno Sho in May, and showed he could handle the step back down to 1m3f when an authoritative winner of the Takarazuka Kinen in June.

However, he has never raced on ground worse than good, and while his one-paced running style suggests it could suit, his sire Duramente was at his best on a fast surface and reportedly struggled when second to Postponed in the 2014 Sheema Classic on good.

Similar ground-related comments apply to the three-year-old Do Deuce, who also placed in the Japanese 2,000 Guineas but won this year's Japanese Derby, which is difficult to assess given the lack of subsequent form.

Unlike Titleholder, he is a closer with a potent turn of foot, and we will hopefully find out his wellbeing and aptitude for Longchamp in the Prix Niel on Sunday.

That race and the other trials should prove informative and while we are some way out from knowing the final fields and conditions, the Japanese runners could be instrumental in making this year's Arc a dour test.

Titleholder has produced his best efforts over staying trips and is usually ridden aggressively from the get-go, while Dubai Gold Cup winner Stay Foolish also made the running when second in the Grand Prix de Deauville recently.

Add in scrappy nine-furlong specialist and Dubai Turf dead-heater Panthalassa, who tends to blast off, and you could be looking at a potential pace burn up in this year's Arc.

Supplementary surprise?

The supplementary entries for the Arc will be made the week before the race, and while most will be hoping to see Baaeed's name, I wonder if Coolmore will stump up the €120,000 fee for Kyprios.

Ballydoyle currently holds just two entries – Luxembourg, who we will know more about after Saturday's Irish Champion Stakes, and the exposed Broome – and I wonder if they could be tempted by a bold show from Kyprios in Sunday's Irish St Leger.

Coolmore aren't averse to sending their star stayers to Longchamp, as their previous two Gold Cup winners contested the race at various stages of their careers.

Leading Light finished 12th in 2013, and Order Of St George ran gallantly when third and fourth in 2016 and 2017. St Leger winners Capri and Kew Gardens also made the trip to Paris in recent years.

If the strong pace does materialise it will suit Kyprios, who had the pace to win over a mile as a juvenile and has won on heavy ground, and a respectable run would surely embellish his stud portfolio far more than a win in the Group 2 Long Distance Cup could.

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Who stands in the way of Baaeed finishing his career unbeaten in the Arc?

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