The Evening Punt: Tom Collins' free horse racing tip on Tuesday

DARK HORSE

(7.30 Southwell)

All bar one of the ten runners in this classified stakes are rated between 44 and 50, so little separates them, but the two three-year-olds in the race – Sea Willow and Stormy Boy – receive 19lb weight-for-age allowance and that should enable them to dominate. Although the money has been for Stormy Boy this morning, Sea Willow boasts the more encouraging profile and she can easily outrun her odds of around 7-1 for trainer Henry Spiller. Sea Willow has run well in two handicap starts, finishing fourth both times and suggesting the step up in trip will suit. The form her last start is working out well (winner and second won since) and providing she handles the Fibresand, she has to go close.

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