Saturday stats: unexposed types usually come to the fore in Racing Post Gold Cup

1.50 Cheltenham

Key trends

• Won at least a Class 3 chase, ten winners in last ten runnings
• Won over at least 2m4f, 10/10
• Had run within the past 40 days, 10/10
• Officially rated no higher than 149, 9/10
• Aged six to eight, 8/10 (both exceptions four-year-olds trained by Paul Nicholls)
• Top-three finish last time out, 8/10
• Top-three finish at the track, 8/10 (two won)
• No more than seven runs over fences, 7/10

Other factors

Last year, Chatham Street Lad became the first winner to be making his debut at Cheltenham since Kings Fountain in 1991.

Five had run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, finishing 20923.

The record of placed horses in the Paddy Power is 1U2U394523748P13189

The last Paddy Power winner to follow up here was Exotic Dancer in 2006.

Verdict

November's Paddy Power Gold Cup is often a good starting point, but it's the placed runners who tend to fare better than the winner, so Lalor is taken to get the better of Midnight Shadow this time with the former solid on trends. However, the only runner to meet all criteria is Beakstown, who looks nicely handicapped on his best form. He remains lightly raced and will surely improve on his recent Aintree third, which came on the back of a long absence. Farinet is another lightly raced type of interest, as is the inconsistent Fusil Raffles, who has a shout if on a going day.

Unibet International Hurdle

3.00 Cheltenham

Key trends

• Adjusted RPR of at least 167, 9/10
• Rated within 6lb of RPR top-rated, 9/10
• Top-three finish last time out, 8/10
• Had already run that season, 8/10
• Aged four to seven, 8/10
• Carried a penalty, 7/10

Other factors

Three of the 29 to have carried a 4lb penalty were successful.

Five winners were RPR top-rated.

Verdict

Having run as well as could have been expected under a penalty on his reappearance at Ascot, Song For Someone looks set to repeat last year's success in this contest. Guard Your Dreams looks held by the selection on that Ascot form, which makes Sceau Royal the biggest danger. He's older than ideal, but has a nice profile otherwise.

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