'I'm confident he has more in hand' - four Cheltenham handicap outsiders to note

Come On Teddy
Ultima Handicap Chase
1pt each-way at 16-1, five places NRNB Sky Bet

Red Rookie
Grand Annual
1pt each-way at 16-1, five places NRNB Sky Bet

Everglow
Kim Muir
1pt each-way at 20-1, five places NRNB Paddy Power

Balco Coastal
County Hurdle
1pt each-way at 16-1, four places NRNB bet365

It's nearly here, folks. All the talking will soon stop and this time next week I'll either be celebrating a few winners or working out where it all went wrong after the first day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival.

Much is still up in the air regarding the open races so I'm going to leave it closer to the time until I nail my colours to the mast in those.

There is also the possibility a few of my fancies won't get in or will go elsewhere in the handicaps, but for that we still have the non-runner no-bet guarantee, which offsets the fact you're likely to get better place terms on the day.

Let's start in the Ultima (2.50, March 15) with Come On Teddy, who was my nap of last year's festival when finishing third in the Pertemps.

He's number 62 on the list so needs plenty to come out but his mark of 137 would have been enough to get into nine of the last ten runnings of this race.

I don't think he fulfilled his potential over hurdles – he was given a lot to do behind Mrs Milner last year – and has continued to progress over fences despite racing over insufficient trips.

He beat some smart rivals on chasing debut before finishing behind L'Homme Presse in the Dipper, a formline which could prove key as the week progresses, and there was no shame in going down to a progressive horse in Omar Maretti last time.

Come On Teddy gave him 8lb and that horse has gone up the same amount after winning again, while the 2m7½f on good to soft ground at Newcastle provided nothing like the stern test he wants.

Racing Post Ratings of 142, 137 and 142 this season show he could already be feasibly treated off his mark and that's not accounting for projected improvement for going up in distance.

He has form figures of 135 at the course and should be very much at home if Cheltenham receives the forecast rain predicted in the run up to and on the day of the meeting given his three lifetime wins have come on soft ground.

It's worth noting the Irish have a dreadful record in this race as they haven't won it since 2006, so I hope Come On Teddy can help the Brits get one in the locker in the first handicap of the week.

Another horse I'm confident who has more in hand off his mark is Red Rookie, who will presumably bypass the Arkle to run in Wednesday's Grand Annual (4.50).

That entry shows how highly regarded he is by Emma Lavelle and for a horse who has won four of his eight starts he appears to have been overlooked.

His second on chasing debut at Chepstow in November is a key piece of form and he was unlucky not to win given how much ground he made up from the rear.

Not Available (third) went on to win twice, Amarillo Sky (fourth) did the same and has risen 14lb since, Can You Call (fifth) has won since while Brave Seasca (sixth) has won three times and rocketed 23lb up in the handicap. Tokay Dokey (ninth) also won and remains well handicapped – I fancy him for the Red Rum at Aintree – and Java Point (tenth) has also won twice. Even Powerstown Park, who unseated at the third, has won twice as well.

Red Rookie was a strong fancy and going well prior to a novicey fall in a race won by Brave Seasca at Ascot in December but made up for it with a strong-staying win at Hereford in January.

The race comment describes him winning readily by three and three quarter lengths but he was only raised 4lb for it and, although Brave Seasca has undoubtedly improved, I can't understand why that horse is 8-1 for this and Red Rookie is 20-1 when he'll be getting 8lb from Venetia Williams' charge.

Similarly to Come On Teddy, RPRs of 142 and 140 suggest he has much more to offer and he'll also be much more suited to the more galloping old course than he was at the tight turns of Hereford last time.

Lavelle has won the Martin Pipe and Boodles and, given her success in valuable handicap chases like the Classic Chase and Ladbrokes Trophy, can hopefully add this race to her festival tally.

If Come On Teddy doesn't get into the Ultima then he could be rerouted to the Kim Muir (5.30, March 17), in which I have another fancy.

There's no escaping the fact the British handicapper has been harsh on Everglow by saddling him with an extra 7lb on his Irish mark, but if he hadn't then it would be unlikely he'd have got into this race.

A mark of 139 is perfect territory for this race and although Everglow has yet to win over fences, his form reads very well.

He was able to finish six and a half lengths behind Arkle contender Blue Lord over 2m in December yet his (albeit distant) second to En Beton afterwards suggested staying is more his game.

His most recent fifth to Floueur also reads well as the fourth, Egality Mans, won at Wexford on Sunday and Frontal Assault and Grand Paradis, who dead-heated for second, will have solid claims wherever they turn up next week.

Everglow, who was a staying-on ninth in the Pertemps for Philip Hobbs last year, has gone a little more under the radar and represents value in a race which should suit better than any race he's contested in Ireland.

The final recommendation is in Friday's County Hurdle (2.10) and there is a chance the price could crash as Balco Coastal is entered in Saturday's Imperial Cup at Sandown.

Nicky Henderson won that race with Dave's Dream in 2009 and that horse was sent off the 7-2 favourite for the County afterwards, so don't be surprised if he charts a similar route with this horse. He's not guaranteed to get in off 134 and a 4lb penalty would certainly aid his cause.

Connections seemed to be entertaining a shot at Saturday's Morebattle Hurdle bonus but he didn't turn up. There isn't a reward for winning the Imperial Cup and at the festival this year but it could nevertheless be tempting for connections of the novice, who looks well handicapped after two easy wins in novice hurdles.

The strong-travelling type cantered all over his rivals over 2m4½f on Trials' day (afterwards Henderson said he was a two-miler, so I wouldn't be too worried about his Martin Pipe entry) before his stamina emptied out and a big-field handicap over two miles should be exactly what he wants.

North Lodge boosted his Cheltenham form at Kelso by finishing an unlucky second in the Grade 2 Premier Hurdle and Balco Coastal could be something of a plunge horse if the plan works out.

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