Hero can ride the rail to Valley victory again

Vara Pearl
Happy Valley 12.15
2pts win

Hero Time
Happy Valley 1.15
1pt win

Storm Signal
Happy Valley 3.15
0.5pts each-way

Rail movement can be very important in HK and the data for 1200m sprints when Happy Valley uses today’s tight ‘C plus 3’ setup is striking.

The sample isn’t huge but nor is it small and the fact that 19 of the last 65 winners have emerged from stall one – with almost half those drawn 1 and 2 finishing placed – makes it very tempting to nose on the inside men.

Hero Time is drawn hard on the inner for the Green Lane Handicap at 1.15 and the way that Richard Gibson’s gelding sealed matters on just his fourth start here recently suggests a 7lb rise may not be enough to prevent a repeat.

California Whip and Alcari hold strong credentials for the 1.45 and 2.15 from stall 2 and 1 respectively, but the market won’t miss them and it’s tempting to use the inside angle at much more rewarding odds with Storm Signal in the Hawthorn Handicap at 3.15.

John Moore’s gelding has run with credit in some strong handicaps since bringing an unbeaten record from Australia and he has the speed to get a perfect trip back over the distance that seems to suit him best.

The case for backing two interesting horses in the races over longer trips rests more on course form than potential draw bias.

Dinozzo has built an impressive record around the Valley’s quirky layout and the step down from G1 company and the return of Joao Moreira for the Happy Valley Vase at 2.45 should help him go very close.

Vara Pearl will be operating at a much more humble level in the Briar Handicap at 12.15 but this looks an ideal slot from a much reduced mark.

The fact that Michael Freedman’s gelding has recorded all his four career wins over course and distance is notable and a clear second in a stronger Sha Tin contest gives him the look of one of the best bets of the day.

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