'He has advanced his case in a big way' - Paul Kealy with four early weekend suggestions

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Bullet Point
2.20 Newmarket, Saturday
1pt each-way at 8-1 William Hill

Frost At Dawn
2.55 Newmarket, Saturday
2pts each-way at 10-1 bet365

Thesecretadversary
3.35 Newmarket, Saturday
1pt each-way at 28-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Goblet Of Fire
2.55 Newmarket, Sunday
1pt each-way at 10-1 generally

Pretty much everything that counts stood its ground at the five-day stage for the Betfred 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket, and we had the added bonus of Gstaad being put back into the race at the supplementary stage after he was mistakenly taken out a couple of weeks ago.

It is easy enough to argue that Gstaad is the form horse on his Dewhurst second to the ill-fated Gewan, and his subsequent Breeders' Cup win, but there was clearly some doubt about his participation as he was as big as 16-1 until being put back in.

You could argue that the 8-1 available in a couple of places early in the week was still value, although we have become used to Aidan O'Brien not having his horses completely ready for the season's opening Classic.

That said, he has still won it more times than any other trainer in history (ten) and will certainly do so again soon enough, if not this year.

The Dewhurst form has been shown in an excellent light this season, with fifth-placed Oxagon winning the Craven and the sixth, Alparslan, taking the Greenham, and Gstaad is clearly a player, as is Distant Storm, who stayed on late for third at Newmarket last October.

He has been the subject of good reports from Charlie Appleby and is my idea of the most likely winner from the front of the market, but this race suddenly looks a lot more competitive that I was expecting and I'm not sure 5-1 is much of a gift.

He's certainly at least a bit better value than Bow Echo, whose form doesn't really entitle him to 3-1 favouritism, even if George Boughey has been talking about him quite bullishly this spring.

Bow Echo looked likely to be held in a Listed contest at Haydock before the babyish Publish (met with a setback, so doesn't run here) threw it away and, while he kept his unbeaten record intact when beating Humidity by a length in the Royal Lodge, that's hardly form that should have anyone running scared.

If everything stands their ground at the final declaration stage, I think there's every chance it will be more like 4-1 or 9-2 the field, so I'm not playing at the front end at this stage.

It's always difficult to know how much credence to give to trials these days, but one horse who advanced his case in a big way just under three weeks ago was Fozzy Stack's Thesecretadversary.

Second to Humidity in last season's Chesham, he then suffered the ignominy of being beaten in an Ayr maiden at odds of 2-13, but he's been on a massive upward curve since then.

He won a Listed race at Tipperary in August and closed his campaign with an unlucky-in-running fifth in a Canadian Grade 1, but even that form was left well behind when he stormed home from the 114-rated Power Blue in the Group 3 Red Rocks Stakes at Leopardstown on his return.

The runner-up, winner of the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes on his final start last season, was conceding 3lb, but Thesecretadversary left him for dead in the final 100 yards or so to score by two and a half lengths, with his rider already trying to pull him up before they hit the line.

The son of St Mark's Basilica has clearly trained on very well, and is also clearly extremely highly regarded, with his trainer saying afterwards that he'd just put him in a $1 million race in America on the same day as the Guineas.

Thesecretadversary is no longer among the entries for that Churchill Downs contest, though, so we can assume he's going to be challenging for a big prize closer to home, and he makes some appeal at around 28-1.

He's not really the sort of horse about whom we can expect much of a plunge, so it might be worth waiting until declaration time, when the bookmakers will almost certainly be offering at least one extra place.

Of the others, I'd love to see Into The Sky run a big race for the Epsom yard of Jim Boyle, but I am not entirely sure he will see out the mile.

He looked a bit of a monster until the closing stages of the Mill Reef at Newbury last season, though, and I hope he can turn out top class this season.

Bullet remains on an upward trajectory

There's plenty of good action outside of the Guineas races at Newmarket this weekend, although Andrew Balding has spoiled the 6f Betfred Handicap by having a horse with clear Group potential running off just 95.

Double Rush showed some decent form for Charlie Hills last season, but left that well behind with a near five-length win in the Craven meeting handicap won last season by More Thunder, who also went on to take this.

He was running off just 90 then and has been raised to a rating of 103, but only carries a 5lb penalty, so is fully deserving of his short price. 

At least the Betfred Suffolk Stakes is more competitive, though Balding also has a last-time-out winner under a penalty at the head of the market for that as well.

Still, Mister Winston has been put up only by the same 5lb as the penalty he carries for his commanding win at the previous meeting, and this race is a slightly different level.

My preference is for Bullet Point, who gagged up in a Craven meeting handicap last season before running a close second to My Cloud in the Hunt Cup.

He improved again after that, winning a very competitive handicap at York's Ebor meeting, and he was surprisingly backed down to just 9-4 favourite two days later in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes.

He didn't show up there, with the race almost certainly coming too soon, while things didn't go right for him when he was sent to Australia for a big prize in November (missed break).

He'll be fresh and ready here for William Haggas, though, and I've no doubt he can still be competitive off 5lb higher than for his York win.

Dawn can rise to the occasion for in-form Knight

Asfoora looks set to make her reappearance in the HKJC World Pool Palace House Stakes on Saturday under a new trainer, with Lemos De Souza now officially taking over from Henry Dwyer.

She was a star at the end of last season, winning the Nunthorpe and the Abbaye, but she was also a slow starter, and I wouldn't be backing her under a 7lb penalty on Saturday.

Strong preference is for Frost At Dawn, who came within inches of winning the King's Stand on her favoured fast ground last season, and proved that was no fluke when beaten only a length and a quarter into third in the Nunthorpe.

She was well beaten in the Abbaye, but on very soft ground that she doesn't like, and conditions will be much more in her favour on Saturday.

I think she has a serious chance of winning this time and should not be far off favourite with William Knight seemingly in such good form.

He's had two winners and two seconds from his last five runners, and the only blowout was Checkandchallenge in the Spring Cup at Newbury - and he'd have gone a hell of a lot closer than his four-length tenth with anything like a clear run.

I don't have an opinion worth dwelling on in the Betfred 1,000 Guineas as I think Aidan O'Brien will win it with either Precise or Diamond Necklace, and they are two of the first three in the betting, but I will be playing in the preceding Betfred Handicap over 1m6f.

Many Men and Daiquiri Bay, second and third in the Melrose last season, will have their supporters, but I think Nicky Henderson, so good with his few Flat stayers, has laid out Goblet Of Fire for this, and I expect him to run well off a workable mark.

A winner of ten of his 30 races, Goblet Of Fire was sent for a wind op after seemingly failing to get home over 2m41/2f in a Plumpton hurdle in November, and I thought he made a lovely return when beaten only three lengths in a Kempton handicap earlier this month.

That was over just 1m4f, which is way too short, so it's a good sign that it was a clear career best at that sort of trip. There must be every hope he can find a bit extra over a more suitable distance now, and he makes plenty of appeal at around 10-1 off such a low weight.

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