Six key stats to help you beat the bookies on Saturday

There are six meetings in Britain and Ireland on a busy Saturday, with Doncaster offering the headline action on St Leger day. Navan, Bath, Lingfield, Chester and Musselburgh also host fixtures and here are statistics from each track which could help your punting . . .

Navan

Aine O’Connor has ridden the winner of two of the last three renewals of the 1m7½f handicap hurdle (2.45), and those victories have helped to boost her strike-rate when riding over hurdles at Navan to 43 per cent (3-7) in the last five years.  

She takes the ride aboard Hearts Are Trumps this afternoon.

Desmond McDonogh’s ten-year-old notched his fifth career win when going in at Ballinrobe in July. He was below his best on the Flat in the Ulster Cesarewitch at Down Royal last week but should be far happier back over hurdles and his current mark (115) remains workable given he has won off as high as 131 in the past.

Hearts Are Trumps14:45 Navan

View Racecard

Jky: Miss A B O'Connor Tnr: Desmond McDonogh

Bath

Simon Hodgson is 4-16 (25 per cent) with his horses aged four or older at Bath in the last five years and backing those runners blind would have yielded a healthy £16.83 level-stakes profit.

Hodgson’s only runner at Bath today is the four-year-old Villalobos, who takes his chance in the concluding mile handicap (5.45).

The son of Footstepsinthesand is currently 0-7 on turf, compared with 3-13 on the all-weather, but he went close when second at Windsor in July and finds himself on the same mark of 56 here.

Villalobos17:45 Bath

View Racecard

Jky: William Cox Tnr: Simon Hodgson

Doncaster

Andrew Balding is 9-44 (20 per cent) with his horses aged four or older at Doncaster in the last five seasons and backing those horses blind would have landed you a £42 profit to £1 level stakes.

Balding sends the Mick and Janice Mariscotti-owned Masekela to Town Moor today, and the four-year-old looks worth considering in the card’s 1m2f handicap (4.10) off a career-low mark. 

Last year’s Derby fourth shaped better than the bare result when tenth in a competitive race at York last time out, starting slowly but passing rivals late. Oisin Murphy is back in the saddle today and this will be Masekela’s first visit to Doncaster since he finished a three-and-three-quarter-length second to the high-class Adayar at last year’s St Leger festival. 

Masekela16:10 Doncaster

View Racecard

Jky: Oisin Murphy Tnr: Andrew Balding

Lingfield

George Baker has trained nine winners from 36 runners aged three on the all-weather at Lingfield in the last five years for a 25 per cent strike-rate, and backing those horses blind would have yielded a £28.88 level-stakes profit.

His only runner on this afternoon’s card is the three-year-old Quietness, who takes part in the 1m2f novice stakes (4.20).

The daughter of Bated Breath finished a half-length second on her debut on turf here in May. She was not quite at that level when a nine-and-three-quarter-length third at Ffos Las last month, but the good to soft ground possibly didn’t suit there and it would be no shock to see her put up an improved showing today.      

Quietness16:20 Lingfield (A.W)

View Racecard

Jky: Saffie Osborne Tnr: George Baker

Chester

Ralph Beckett has sent out 14 winners from 38 three-year-old runners at Chester in the last five seasons for an impressive 37 per cent strike-rate.

He sends Bluestocking to the Roodee this afternoon to contest the opening 1m4½f Listed Stand Cup Stakes (2.05).

The Juddmonte-owned daughter of Camelot has run four fine races in defeat this season – including at Group 1 level the last twice – and this significant drop in grade provides her with a good opportunity to get back to winning ways.  

Bluestocking14:05 Chester

View Racecard

Jky: Rob Hornby Tnr: Ralph Beckett

Musselburgh

Alice Haynes has trained three winners from just four juvenile runners at Musselburgh, and backing those horses blind would have yielded an £11.50 level-stakes profit.

The Newmarket trainer heads north with one runner on today’s card in the shape of two-year-old Asteverdi, who contests the 7f maiden (5.25).

The daughter of Advertise put a modest debut run at Newmarket well behind her when third at Epsom last month. She is unlikely to need to improve dramatically to feature here in what looks a moderate event.

Asteverdi17:25 Musselburgh

View Racecard

Jky: P J McDonald Tnr: Alice Haynes

Read these next:

Big-race trends: who will win the St Leger based on the key stats? 

Easyview: who comes out best of the runners in the St Leger at Doncaster? 

Racing Post Members' Club: subscribe for just £9.99 

Sign up to receive On The Nose, our essential daily newsletter, from the Racing Post. Your unmissable morning feed, direct to your email inbox every morning.