Paul Kealy's play of the day at Ascot

Nashwa
3.05 Ascot

The market for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes seems pretty certain that Paddington was some way below form when only third in the International at York and will bounce back after a break dropped to a mile.

I wouldn't be confident enough to punt with my hard-earned at the prices as I don't think he was at his best when beating some average horses on bad ground in the Sussex, and he was beaten on merit at York by both Mostahdaf and runner-up Nashwa.

It is the latter who surely has to be the bet following another cracking run when given far too much to do in the Irish Champion Stakes last month.

She has long looked a filly capable of handling the drop to a mile, and she proved that in the Falmouth in July, slamming Remarquee by five lengths, which is four lengths more than Tahirya managed at Royal Ascot.

The latter is second favourite because she has a load of 1s next to her name, but Nashwa's form is considerably better as things stand, while she has travelled very well on bad ground in the past without quite getting home on it over further. 

I don't see why she won't beat Paddington again, or the rest of them.

Nashwa15:05 Ascot

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Jky: Hollie Doyle Tnr: John & Thady Gosden

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