2023 Welsh Grand National at Chepstow: the runners, the odds, the verdict
We have a December thriller in store at Chepstow as the Coral Welsh Grand National (2.50) takes centre stage. Will Super Survivor give Gavin Sheehan another big-race win? Can Nassalam follow up on his trial victory, or will Iwilldoit be a repeat winner? It's a complex 20-runner puzzle, so here's everything you need to know about the big race.
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2023 Welsh Grand National: the full list of horses for Chepstow
1 Iwilldoit
4-6 over fences, including wins in the 2021 Welsh National (soft) and last season's Classic Chase at Warwick (3m5f, heavy); disappointing in the 4m2f Midlands National in March but reappearance second at Aintree last month augured well on his first hurdle race since April 2021; 6lb higher than at Warwick but a 7lb claimer is recruited this time; soft or heavy ground would be preferable and he needs plenty of respect.
Trainer: Sam Thomas
Jockey: Dylan Johnston (7)
Forecast odds: 7-1
2 Complete Unknown
Highly progressive as a novice chaser last season, ending with an easy handicap win at Kempton (2m4f, soft) and staying-on second in Grade 1 novice at Aintree (3m1f, good to soft); won an intermediate chase on return but made a backward step when favourite for top 3m2f handicap at Newbury on latest outing;
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Harry Cobden
Forecast odds: 15-2
3 The Big Breakaway
No win since chase debut in 2020; started last season with two excellent seconds, notably with a big career best when second in this race (soft) but he has not clicked in any of his four starts since; 1lb lower than 12 months ago but hard to trust.
Trainer: Joe Tizzard
Jockey: Adam Wedge
Forecast odds: 12-1
4 The Galloping Bear
Fell in the closing stages on both his appearances at Chepstow, latterly when in a well-held fifth at the fourth last in this race last year; had come to the fore on soft/heavy ground but he also kept plugging away for second in the 4m1f Eider at Newcastle in February on good to soft; flopped in the Midlands National in March and had wind surgery in July; more exposed than a lot of these but no doubts over his stamina if he is back on song.
Trainer: Ben Clarke
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Forecast odds: 14-1
5 Nassalam
It took him three attempts to prove his effectiveness over about 3m but when he did it was in tremendous fashion under Caoilin Quinn at this track (heavy) 18 days ago in the National Trial, going on five out; his stamina will get much more of an examination today but he's well handicapped under a 4lb penalty after that major career best.
Trainer: Gary Moore
Jockey: Caoilin Quinn (3)
Forecast odds: 6-1
6 Chambard
Won at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival (3m2f, soft) and, after a patchy campaign last term, he's never been better than in his two starts this season, both under Lucy Turner; unraced beyond 3m2f but he won by 13l at that trip over the big Aintree fences on heavy going on latest start, so there must be strong hopes that he will stay; has 4lb penalty and is due to go up another 5lb, so he's a huge player if able to back up that latest effort 18 days later.
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Jockey: Miss Lucy Turner (5)
Forecast odds: 10-1
7 Iron Bridge
Ran poorly over hurdles on sole start here; only nine races in all, winning five but best form when a beaten a head by Autonomous Cloud at Uttoxeter (3m, soft) last March and he looked sure to stay further that day; it was disconcerting that he found reappearance this month quite so tough, notwithstanding the 2m4f, but he's interesting on the Uttoxeter performance.
Trainer: Jonjo O'Neill
Jockey: Jonjo O'Neill Jr
Forecast odds: 10-1
8 Truckers Lodge
Second, fifth, third and fourth in the last four Welsh Nationals, as well as winning the Midlands National (4m2f, heavy) in 2020; this year he's added wins in the West Wales and London versions at Ffos Las (3m4f) and Sandown (3mf, heavy) under his now regular partner Freddie Gingell, the latter race 18 days ago; has 4lb penalty and this probably requires his best form in nearly two years, but no shock if he is on the premises once more.
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Freddie Gingell (5)
Forecast odds: 11-1
9 Only The Bold
Started off for David Pipe with two emphatic chase wins in the mud last winter but there have been three backward steps since, the last two over hurdles in November after wind surgery; unraced beyond 3m1f; form chance if he could surge back to last season's best.
Trainer: David Pipe
Jockey: Jack Tudor
Forecast odds: 25-1
10 Autonomous Cloud
Progressive in his five chases and has had just ten races overall; pipped Iron Bridge at Uttoxeter on final start last term; reappeared in four-runner race there (3m, heavy) one month ago and was challenging when left well clear three out from the only other finisher; has 4lb penalty; good jumper who keeps on galloping at 3m/3m2f and has more in the tank, which may well be revealed with this step up in class and distance.
Trainer: Fergal O'Brien
Jockey: Paddy Brennan
Forecast odds: 7-1
11 Iceo Madrik
Interesting on some French chase efforts (stays 2m7f in the mud) but pulled up over fences at Cheltenham Festival (3m1f) and Newton Abbot (2m5f) in the spring for new connections; had wind surgery in July and always behind on recent reappearance (hurdles) so needs a dramatic turnaround.
Trainer: David Pipe
Jockey: David Noonan
Forecast odds: 66-1
12 Super Survivor
5l winner in a 3m novice handicap chase (soft) on this card last year; pretty lacklustre at Uttoxeter (17l behind two of these) in March but reappearance second of five at Lingfield five weeks ago was much more like it; a very lightly raced 7yo who could have improvement in him as well as major stamina reserves, but he wasn't the quickest over his fences last term and there's a concern that that may put him on the back foot.
Trainer: Jamie Snowden
Jockey: Gavin Sheehan
Forecast odds: 11-2
13 Amateur
Last three wins were over 3m4f at Ffos Las (good to soft/good) in spring of 2021, 2022 and 2023; also staying-on third to Truckers Lodge there (3m4f, soft) this April and although he's not yet proved it, he should be fully effective at this trip; more to prove on first run since July and at this level.
Trainer: John Flint
Jockey: Connor Brace
Forecast odds: 50-1
14 Charlie Uberalles
Both wins came from the front over fences at Perth (3m, good) in 2022; while he was a rising force in that first campaign under rules and looked likely to stay further, he was then absent for 416 days before well below form in a novice hurdle last month; unraced on soft since his early pointing days, so there's stacks for him to prove but he is very lightly raced.
Trainer: Dianne Sayer
Jockey: Danny McMenamin
Forecast odds: 40-1
15 Wayfinder
Ran well on both completions this term, second to Nassalam here last time; 4-8 overall at Chepstow, where he's proved himself over 3m2f on soft; however, he's failed to complete in his four attempts beyond that, pulled up in three of them including this race last year; 2lb out of the handicap.
Trainer: Rebecca Curtis
Jockey: Lilly Pinchin
Forecast odds: 20-1
16 Blade Runner
Furthest he's been was an extended 3m4f with clearcut win in small field at Plumpton (good) last November; pulled up over hurdles at Ascot on latest outing but rewarded his jockey's efforts (he usually goes in snatches) with wins in five of his six chases and one of his two wins this autumn came on soft ground here under Freddie Gordon; this trip should suit if his jockey can get him to maintain a competitive position; 3lb out of the handicap.
Trainer: Chris Gordon
Jockey: Freddie Gordon (5)
Forecast odds: 33-1
17 Max Dynamo
13yo whose career best was a 25l win here (3m2f, good to soft) in February, leading from a fairly early stage and going with great verve; creditable second at Fontwell (3m4f, heavy) on reappearance but whether he can cut it in this much higher grade remains to be seen, with two runs last spring casting doubts; 7lb out of the handicap and 7lb-claiming rider is recruited.
Trainer: Emma-Jane Bishop
Jockey: James Turner (7)
Forecast odds: 50-1
18 Domaine De L'Isle
2-4 at Chepstow, including an authoritative win (3m7f, soft) this March; pulled up both starts this season, given wind surgery (his second) in between; 8lb out of the handicap today and although he used to be capable of significantly better, he last showed it in December 2021.
Trainer: Sean Curran
Jockey: Ned Fox (5)
Forecast odds: 50-1
19 Didero Vallis
Used to act in the mud; inconsistent; the first of his two Cheltenham cross-country runs (3m5f) this season showed that plenty of ability remains but he has not won since February 2021 and is unlikely to put that right in this hot race from 12lb out of the handicap.
Trainer: Venetia Williams
Jockey: Charlie Deutsch
Forecast odds: 40-1
20 Not Sure
Scored in good style on seasonal debut at Wetherby last month and creditable third at Sandown (again 3m on soft) 19 days ago; going beyond 3m (first time today) may well suit him but position 12lb out of the handicap makes for a very stiff task.
Trainer: Kerry Lee
Jockey: Richard Patrick
Forecast odds: 40-1
Verdict: our Welsh Grand National betting tip
By Richard Austen
2021 winner Iwilldoit returns for more and should put up another bold show but this time he may prove vulnerable to one of the younger, less exposed contenders. Autonomous Cloud (nap) goes beyond 3m2f for the first time but shapes like a thorough stayer and reappeared one month ago with another improved effort, in marked contrast to Iron Bridge who would be of major interest if judged on his close second to the selection last season. Autonomous Cloud is one of four penalised last-time-out winners, with Aintree's Becher Chase winner Chambard feared most among that group and perhaps posing the greatest threat overall. Truckers Lodge is a familiar face in this race and has each-way claims again, while his stablemate Complete Unknown bids to make amends for his disappointing run when favourite in the Coral Gold Cup.
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