Commander can boss field on handicap debut

Commander
4.30 Thirsk
1pt winNightingale Valley
6.10 Kempton
1pt winZubayr
7.40 Kempton
1pt winI'vegotthepower
7.30 Bath
1pt winCommander
4.30 Thirsk

Commander has given plenty of encouragement in his two runs in maidens this season and is fancied to go well on handicap debut.

A mark of 85 is fair for what he has achieved so far, but there is scope for further improvement from this lightly-raced son of Frankel.

Roger Varian’s three-year-old ran very well when narrowly denied in a traditionally decent maiden at Newbury in April and then went one better over the straight mile at Doncaster, scoring with a bit in hand as the first two pulled clear of a next-time-out winner.

First-time-blinkers are applied here, which should help to keep his mind on the job in hand, and Varian’s red-hot form boosts confidence, as does the booking of Silvestre de Sousa (10-22 in three-year-old races for the yard this season).

Nightingale Valley
6.10 Kempton

There can be a tendency for horses to go too fast over the 6f track at Kempton as there’s not much time before reaching the first bend and, with likely front-runner Picket Line drawn wide, there is a good chance of a pace meltdown in the closing stages.

That would suit Nightingale Valley, who is fancied to repeat her course-and-distance win on her penultimate start.

Stuart Kittow’s four-year-old was last turning for home under similar conditions, but she showed smart acceleration to pass the entire field and get up on the line.

Nightingale Valley returned in a better race over 7f and again came with a late run but was trapped behind a wall of horses. As she went for a gap, she clipped heels with one of her rivals, which cost her momentum, and her jockey wasn’t hard on her after.

The handicapper raised her by 2lb for her win and she remains well enough handicapped to win this.

With only eight career runs, further improvement should be forthcoming.

Zubayr
7.40 Kempton

There is a chance that the handicapper has seriously underestimated Zubayr as he makes his Flat handicap debut.

Rated 142 over hurdles after a short-head second in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, Paul Nicholls’ five-year-old translated his excellent recent jumps form to the Flat when running away with a good maiden over course and distance at the end of May.

That was run at a good pace and Zubayr still had plenty to do turning for home but, given a couple of taps by Megan Nicholls, he took off to score by two and a quarter lengths.

The form looks solid, yet Zubayr has been given a mark of just 83 here with Nicholls taking off another 5lb.

He is clearly on the upgrade and looks well worth a bet.

I’vegotthepower
7.30 Bath

I’vegotthepower has been in great heart this season, clearly improving for a gelding operation at the end of last term.

Having needed his seasonal debut, Brian Meehan’s three-year-old has since won two of his last four races, kicking off over this course and distance when he made virtally all to win easily.

He lost nothing in defeat over a longer trip when a neck second and, having hated soft ground after that, he was back on song at Goodwood last time on a quicker surface, showing a great attitude to regain the lead once headed as the first two pulled seven lengths clear of the third.

A 6lb rise looks fair enough for this improving sort, who will relish the conditions and goes well on the track.

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