US racing tips: Shane Ketteridge with his two best Saturday bets

Simplification
11.38 Gulfstream Park
2pt win

Barber Road
12.35am Oaklawn Park
1pt each-way

The $1 million Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park has always been a key race on the road to the Kentucky Derby and whoever wins this will be well fancied to back it up at Churchill Downs in May.

Todd Pletcher has won this six times since 2007 and he saddles the promising Charge It this year, but there’s another contender who looks to have everything going for him, and that’s the colt in stall three, Simplification, who can land the spoils for Antonio Sano and his team.

Sano, who trains in South Florida, said after a recent workout at Gulfstream that his charge is 'getting stronger and stronger' which is a frightening prospect given he’s already a three-time winner at the course, including a Grade 2 win in the Fountain Of Youth Stakes last month.

That win came over 1m½f and he gave every indication there would be no problem stretching out an extra half a furlong to 1m1f as he finishes off his races well, and this exciting colt can make all the running under Jose Ortiz.

I have already pinpointed a filly who could be a potential superstar, Arrogate's daughter, Secret Oath, who enhanced her credentials when winning a stakes race at Oaklawn Park last time.

Now we see the rare early season sight of a filly taking on the colts in the $1.25m Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, which shows how highly regarded this filly is.

All eyes will be on her, however, and she is likely to go off a short price, but one who is overpriced is the strong-finishing Barber Road, who can catch her late on.

This son of Race Day loves a fast pace to aim at and he should get that with the horses at bigger prices showing they have a tendency to go off fast, which will bring his hold-up style into play.

Secret Oath will run her race but she could be vulnerable to Barber Road, who has been an eyecatcher when finishing in the money in his last two starts at this course, and looks a big player.

Catch our new in-depth review of the weekend's racing every Monday in the Racing Post. With big-race analysis from Grand National-winning jockey Leighton Aspell, Chris Cook's take on the weekend action, eyecatchers from the Raceform team, weekly awards and more, it is not to be missed.