Predictions measured for a Tattersalls Book 2 event not short of quality

Last year’s Derby winner Desert Crown and the elite Emily Upjohn have been upfront reminders of the kinds of horses that could be lurking in this week’s Book 2 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale.

Indeed, as Book 1 soared to record heights last year so did the next tier, with the average even threatening to pass 100,000gns for the first time. Back in 2019, there was even a seven-figure lot.

With the Book 1 numbers dipping across its three sessions at Park Paddocks last week, results from the next six days, with three more apiece of Books 2 and 3, the last of which is combined with a Book 4 session, will be telling.

"We weren’t overstating it when we said Book 1 last year was monster, we added nearly 40,000,000gns turnover in the space of 12 months, those were outlandish returns," said Tattersalls marketing director Jimmy George.

"Book 1 and Book 2 in the last decade have made relentless progress, bar obviously the issue of Covid. Book 2 very much followed in the footsteps of Book 1, perhaps quite not as spectacularly but still with records across the board in turnover, median and numbers of horses selling for two, three hundred thousand or more. 

"You always want and aim to match that but, equally, there are limits to what can be achieved at times. We know we’ve got a good catalogue and an awful lot of lovely yearlings, as there are every year, and interest in the sale has been widespread and encouraging."

Swingalong: a sibling to last year's Lowther winner is in the catalogueCredit: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)

The catalogue of Book 2 has plenty of the same sire power of last week’s highlights, including three Frankels, a hatful of Wootton Bassetts, Kingmans and Siyounis, and even a Dubawi wildcard filly (lot 552A), Lodge Park Stud’s great-granddaughter of the mighty Park Express.

Individual highlights are numerous, too. There is Mountarmstrong Stud’s New Bay colt (561), a half-brother to the Lowther winner and this year’s Commonwealth Cup third Swingalong, a Sottsass colt (614) from Baroda Stud who is a three-parts brother to the brilliant Laurens, and a colt from Sherbourne Lodge (790) who is a Mohaather sibling of July Stakes winner Jasour.

A prime filly on offer is from New England Stud (998), a Bated Breath half-sister to Goodwood Cup winner Quickthorn, while Kirsten Rausing’s Lanwades has a Study Of Man half-brother (1147) to her celebrated Hong Kong achievers Time Warp and Glorious Forever.

It makes for a delicate process for those deciding which yearlings end up in which section of the Newmarket fortnight.

"Between the Craven, Guineas time and Royal Ascot is peak yearling inspection time and our team are on the road throughout Europe, even in America, sifting through the candidates," said George.

"The process with the vendor and breeder is very much collaborative and, by and large, we find ourselves in agreement. It’s not always straightforward but the aim is always to put every yearling in the sale we all think is the most appropriate, which appeal to the buyer demographic you’re hoping to attract to that particular sale.

"It does sound really simple and fundamentally it is, but the decisions aren’t taken lightly."

On the sales ground last week there seemed to be no consensus as to precisely why the figures had fallen, at least compared with the feast of 2022. There was the obvious school of thought that a market correction was due, while there are widespread worries about racing’s sustainability and funding as well as the wider economy for just about all but the inordinately wealthy.

Jimmy George: "We'll have a clearer picture by the end of this week"Credit: Edward Whitaker

It also felt quieter, lacking trainers who would either have orders or buy on spec. On the flip side, there might have been an element of Book 1 becoming a victim of its own success; Americans are not yet prepared to spend as much on turf horses as they would for dirt pedigrees, while some players of every shape and size might have predicted they wouldn’t get a look in. Others wondered privately if the catalogue had become a bit bloated and might be better as two sessions.

"We’ll have a much clearer picture by the end of this week," said George. "We’ve got more than 800 catalogued for Book 2, which is the largest yearling sale in Europe numerically and is very significant for a huge number of British, Irish and European breeders.

"It’s a quality yearling sale. Romantic Warrior, the Hong Kong superstar, came from Book 2 and so did a number of the top two-year-olds in Europe, with Big Evs and Iberian being Group 2 winners. 

"Last year’s average price was a wide-margin record for the fixture, and probably tells you all you need to know about the quality on offer."

Tattersalls October Yearling Sale Book 2 factfile

Where Park Paddocks, Newmarket

When Three-day sale begins on Monday, with sessions starting at 10am

Last year's stats From 732 lots offered, 633 sold (86 per cent) for an aggregate of 60,780,500gns (up ten per cent year-on-year), an average of 96,020gns (up 13 per cent) and median of 70,000gns (up 11 per cent)

Notable graduates Emily Upjohn (sold by New England Stud, bought by Blandford Bloodstock for 60,000gns); Desert Crown (sold by Strawberry Fields Stud, bought by Blandford Bloodstock for 280,000gns); Romantic Warrior (sold by Corduff Stud, bought by the Hong Kong Jockey Club for 300,000gns); Lady Bowthorpe (sold by John Troy, bought by James Toller for 82,000gns)

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