Why a dented breeze-up market may not be bad news for all sides of the industry

After a sobering session at the rescheduled Tattersalls Craven and Tattersalls Ascot Breeze-Up Sales on Thursday, the early indication is that a change of date is far from the only impact the Covid-19 pandemic will have on bloodstock auctions this year, and quite possibly beyond.

The end-of-sale figures made for bleak reading, although the catalogue had been hit so heavily by withdrawals that direct year-on-year comparisons are not entirely reflective.

Some 25 fewer lots came under the hammer than in 2019 - a 23 per cent drop - and the 70 that changed hands brought turnover of 6,649,500gns - a 36 per cent decrease on the 10,343,000gns generated 14 months ago, when the sale was held in its usual pre-Royal Ascot slot.

The average and median figures also headed in the same direction, with the former down by 22 per cent to 94,995gns and the median, often the more revealing metric when dealing with a smaller sample size, down by 28 per cent at 61,000gns, having been 85,000gns 12 months ago.

There is, of course, no suggestion that Tattersalls are in any way culpable, with vendors and buyers alike expressing their gratitude for the considerable lengths the sales company had gone to to host the event amid such trying circumstances.

Rather, Thursday's trade was a cruel reminder that the bloodstock market is not immune from the prevailing conditions of the wider economic climate.

And if government projections prove to be accurate, the bloodstock industry is going to require every ounce of resilience it has over the coming months. When speaking at a Lords Economic Affairs Select Committee meeting last month, chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak warned: "There is no doubt there will be more hardship to come.

Rishi Sunak: 'There is no doubt there will be more hardship to come'Credit: UK Parliament

"This lockdown is having a very significant impact on our economy and we're likely to face a severe recession, the likes of which we haven't seen."

Moreover, just 24 hours before the Craven Sale took place, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) released data highlighting that the Covid-19 crisis has caused the British economy to shrink by an unprecedented 25 per cent compared to pre-lockdown levels, with GDP in April falling by 20.4 per cent, the steepest monthly drop since comparable records began in 1997.

Among those within the bloodstock industry now having to come to terms with such a harsh economic reality is John Cullinan, one half of the Church Farm and Horse Park Stud team who sold the Kodiac colt out of Life Of Pi to Stroud Coleman Bloodstock for 300,000gns on Thursday.

Despite selling the Craven Sale's fourth-most expensive lot, Cullinan pulled no punches when offering his assessment of Church Farm and Horse Park Stud's fortunes on Thursday.

However, as the dust began to settle 24 hours later, he was taking a more sanguine view on proceedings, with vendors acutely aware that being able to bring their two-year-olds to auction, albeit when the market may be challenging, is infinitely more preferable to having no sales at all.

"I regret the use of the word 'disaster' in my comments regarding the Craven Sale," said Cullinan, who is also a leading figure in the Breeze-up Consignors Association. "While we had a very tough day ourselves with some of our own horses going unsold, we were very appreciative of Tattersalls putting on a sale at all, and in the circumstances they did a fantastic job to get the people in there.

John Cullinan: 'The sales companies have moved heaven and earth to get sales on 'Credit: Laura Green

"The traffic around the sale was very good but agents were finding it difficult to get orders from clients. The sales companies have moved heaven and earth to get sales on and we greatly appreciate that and know we're lucky to get horses to a sale at all."

It should be acknowledged that market trends at public auction are rarely universal. So while those who have pinhooked yearlings to sell at this year's breeze-ups may be set to take a hit on all but the most choice offerings, a drop in prices should present an opportunity for owners to invest in a calibre of stock that may have previously proved beyond their budgets.

Those within the industry are famed for their resilience in trying times, and, in keeping with that mentality, Cullinan said he remained hopeful that potential purchasers would take heed of these opportunities as the breeze-up season progresses.

"It's important that people don't feel the opportunities these two-year-olds present have passed them by," he said.

"There's a packed racing programme in Ireland and Britain from here on in. And the success of breeze-up horses over the last number of years has proven that there is a much more diverse type of horse on offer; they've produced a St Leger winner, a Derby runner-up and a Prix de Diane winner, among others. It's not all about the early two-year-olds.

"This year should be seen as an opportunity by potential racehorse owners to buy the type of horse that they mightn't have been able to afford when the market is strong."

The odds may now be stacked against breeze-up consignors turning a significant profit on all but the most in-demand lots, having pinhooked their two-year-olds at premium prices during a round of robust yearling sales in 2019.

But Cullinan felt the opposite may well be true for potential purchasers, as not only can they buy racehorses at reduced prices, but the delayed sales season means more training costs have already been accounted for.

He said: "These horses are also much further down the road so not only are they nearer running, they're probably better prepared to run well as they've built up more months worth of fitness, and training fees for that have already been paid for. This should definitely be seen as a positive for those considering racehorse ownership."

It is often said that those within the bloodstock industry possess the kind of tenacity that will prove essential in weathering the Covid-19 storm, with breeders, pinhookers and end-users tending to be nothing if not determined to keep on producing and purchasing stock.

For his part, Cullinan was remaining positive despite having endured his own troubled beginning to the breeze-up season. He said: "The underlying issue is Covid-19. If that is dealt with properly then anything is possible. As that situation improves, hopefully the climate for purchasing horses will improve in tandem."

The next auctions are the Goffs UK and Arqana Breeze-Up Sales, which take place in Doncaster on Wednesday.

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