Inglis Classic sale hints at market correction but trade remains strong

This year’s Inglis Classic may have shown signs of a market correction against the dizzying Covid-induced heights of 2022 but the auction house’s opening yearling sale of the season still maintained a strong benchmark to post more than A$61 million (£35m/€40m) in trade, the second highest turnover in the auction’s history.

Twenty-three horses sold for A$300,000 or more this year, just two fewer than last year, but it was the middle to lower end of the market which saw demand fall more in line with 2021 levels of appetite to spend by buyers.

The 2023 Book 1 average closed at A$103,041 last night while the median was at A$80,000 with 552 Book 1 horses changing hands. The aggregate was A$56,878,500 with the majority of vendors reacting to the changing market, ensuring a healthy clearance rate of 86 per cent.

The Highway Session also turned over more than A$4.5 million.

The year-on-year decline, strongly forecast in the lead-up to this week’s three-day sale by Inglis Bloodstock chief executive Sebastian Hutch, is demonstrated by the level of participation from those who 'spec' yearlings to have on the shelf, so to speak, to on-sell to existing and new clients.

For example, trainers Mark and Levi Kavanagh, Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, syndicator Darby Racing, Annabel Neasham and Bjorn Baker bought 47 yearlings combined at last year’s Classic sale for a spend of A$6.3 million.

At this week’s corresponding sale the cohort purchased a combined 24 yearlings from the Book 1 sale for an aggregate of A$2,972,500.

Darby Racing, which sourced Group 1-winning fillies Yankee Rose and She Will Reign from Classic sales in 2015 and 2016, bought six yearlings at last month’s Magic Millions sale and half that number at this year’s Inglis Riverside sale.

Syndicator Scott Darby, who sells mainly to “mums and dads and small business owners”, said he and his team decided to take a circumspect approach at this year’s yearling sales given the wider economic outlook.

He spent A$1.14 million at last year’s Classic and this year outlaid A$210,000.

“I think everyone’s a little bit cautious at the moment, just with these [rising] interest rates,” Darby said. 

“When school went back, we noticed there was a real standstill in selling and that came right on the door of Inglis Classic. 

“We were always going to be a little bit quieter here, but we weren’t sure how quiet, and we also believe that the old Classic where we had all our success is now more the HTBA May Sale these days.

“When we were having our success here the average was around A$30,000 to A$40,000 and A$50,000 and last year it was A$120,000-plus.”

He said Darby Racing’s client base had been hit by the Reserve Bank’s decision to continually increase interest rates, which had seen the level of enquiry “dry up”. 

“But we have got to work through that, we still have a business to run, so we have to sell shares in horses and win races,” Darby said. 

“There’s still plenty of prize-money on offer and you have to remain positive, but we are just acting with a bit of caution.”

While some buyers may have kept their powder dry and their hands in their pockets, agent Justin Bahen said the competition on the horses he and Newcastle-based trainer Kris Lees liked was as strong as ever.

The duo purchased three yearlings on the final day of the Classic sale, a Spirit Of Boom colt for A$200,000, a Super Seth colt for A$170,000 and a son of I Am Invincible for A$400,000, the highest-priced lot in the final session.

The most expensive of the two was the Yarraman Park-consigned colt by its reigning champion sire and the second foal of the European-bred, US stakes-placed mare Navajo Dreamer.

Bahen said barely a major metropolitan meeting goes by without I Am Invincible siring a winner of a major race and that his price tag “was where we thought we’d have to be as far as the spend was”.

“I thought he might’ve ended up at a Magic Millions sale, but he’s ended up here where he stands out,” the Melbourne-based agent said. 

“In and around that money, I thought he was good buying for an I Am Invincible and a colt like him. He’s sharp, but he might also take a little bit longer than normal. That said, I am happy to have a good horse at any age.”

As for the market, Bahen said: “I think it’s been strong enough. I found it difficult on the ones I’ve tried to buy. We’ve got three now.”

The third of Bahen’s purchases was a A$310,000 Trapeze Artist colt who was also signed for by Baystone Farm’s Dean Harvey on Monday.

Yulong was active at the Classic for the first time in four years, spending A$1.36 million on six yearlings, Mick Price and Mick Kent Jnr bought five for A$1.09 million, while the leading buyer was another international investor in Bon Ho’s Legend Racing who spent A$1.53 million on seven yearlings.

Silverdale Farm was third leading vendor by average (three or more lots sold) at A$186,875, just behind Kingstar Farm, which sold ten lots at A$187,200 each, and Tyreel Stud, which sold all six yearlings offered at an average of A$187,200. 

Newgate Farm was the leading vendor by aggregate, selling 29 yearlings for a total of A$3,746,000, while Sledmere Stud sold 31 yearlings for A$3,257,500. 

Inglis Bloodstock chief executive Sebastian Hutch said this week’s sale exceeded the company’s expectations, but he stopped short of suggesting the trend of the Classic sale would follow suit at the upcoming yearling sales, including the Premier and Easter sales.

“We have come out of a sale, conducted in difficult enough circumstances, and we are very pleased,” Hutch said. 

“The reality is, the context of all of these sales will be given by subsequent sales and it is very hard to give a singular judgement because we never know how the balance of the sales are going to play out. 

“There has been evidence of an area of selectivity to the market that hasn’t been present to the same extent for the last number of years. 

“The nature of the market is changing all the time, we have spoken about it a lot that the digital sales have had a fairly significant effect on certain parts of the yearling market and particularly that value end with people shopping at that end have such an access to a broader level of stock and that does affect their demand for yearlings.”

The hard work for Inglis has only just started, with Hutch and his bloodstock team’s focus switching to the Premier sale.

“It’s the beginning of a number of significant sales for us. We’ve got Premier in a couple of weeks and that is a very important sale for us, with a brilliant catalogue and that has a fantastic reputation as a source of great horses and then obviously Easter is a few weeks after that,” he said. 

“These are massive sales in the context of the calendar and they will give context of how the market is shaping up. There is very evidently still money in the market, it might be a case of vendors having to work a bit harder to get their horses sold but ultimately the rewards are there.”

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