There is a problem with middle-distance racing and breeding - and it has nothing to do with fashion

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On this occasion, Jocelyn de Moubray examines the middle-distance race programme and its impact on the breeding business – subscribers can get more great insight every Monday to Friday.

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For many years there has been a problem with middle-distance racing and breeding.  

The evidence is the difficulty of attracting competitive fields for nearly every race run over further than ten furlongs – for three-year-old races at these distances, for example, the average field size in 2023 was 7.5, compared with more than 9 for races run at a mile or shorter – and of maintaining the standard of many of the 90 or so Pattern races run over these distances every year.  

The problem is not only in Britain and Ireland as the recent entries for 2025 Classic races in France showed that the numbers entered in the 1m2½f Jockey-Club and 1m4f Grand Prix de Paris have fallen by about a third since 2010. As has been the case for some time, around half of the entries for these races are trained in Britain and Ireland. 

If there is any possibility for interested parties to come together and work towards a solution, and in the best possible case it will take years to turn around this tanker which has been on the same course for years, the first step is to acknowledge that the problem has nothing whatsoever to do with fashion.  

Stallion owners and the sales companies do, of course, try to influence decisions breeders take about selection and matings, but their influence is only marginal.  

The foundation of all breeding decisions is the programme of races and the distribution of prize-money. As soon as you look at the races put on in Britain and Ireland, it becomes very clear why breeders, stallion owners, the sales companies and most of those who take part in bloodstock sales are focused on producing precocious horses likely to race over distances of a mile and shorter.

The proportion of all races restricted to two-year-olds has actually fallen in recent years, from 20 per cent in 2010 to only 17 per cent in 2023 (the most recent year I had easier access to full statistics for, though I don’t believe anything significant has changed since). 

However, the type of races is unchanged, with 82 per cent of the 1,345 two-year-old races in 2023 run over less than a mile and 52 per cent run over less than seven furlongs.  

There are many more opportunities for two-year-old sprinters than there are for those who need a mile or further to show their best.

The proportion of races restricted to three-year-olds is unchanged since 2010, with a total of 2,639 in 2023, 34 per cent of all races run in Britain and Ireland that year.  

For three-year-olds too there are far more opportunities for horses at their best over a mile or less than there are for middle-distance performers racing over further than ten furlongs.

Between races for two- and three year olds, there are around 3,700 run over a mile or less, and 440 run over further than ten furlongs.  

In the circumstances it is hardly surprising many of the best middle-distance horses are sold to Japan or retired to stud directly as jumping sires, and it is a trend determined by the programme and not by whims or fashions.  

Anybody considering breeding a horse likely to be at its best over ten furlongs is limiting its chances of winning at two or three years old to the few opportunities available, and in these races it will have to take on the progeny of some of Europe’s most expensive stallions, like Frankel, Sea The Stars and Camelot, all of whose average winning distance for three-year-olds is more than ten furlongs and who cover 150 mares or more every year.   

Camelot: top sire whose average winning distance for three-year-olds is more than ten furlongsCredit: Coolmore

For the current trend to be reversed there will need to be more opportunities for young middle-distance horses, and changes in the Pattern system on their own are not going to have any effect.  

The population of any type of horse when ranked by rating will always be a pyramid or cone shape; if you want to have sufficient high-rated horses to put on competitive Group races you need to have the base of the population at a lower level and the necessary opportunities for these horses.  

There is, of course, no point putting on more races for middle-distance three-year-olds if at the same time breeders are not trying to produce more of this type of horse.  

The current situation was created above all else by a lack of runners in these races. If breeders are going to produce more, there will have to be extra incentives as well as more races.  

Premiums, bonuses, the money the European Breeders’ Fund distributes and sponsorship from the stallion owners who would benefit from a change are all possible sources of money to finance these new opportunities devised to persuade breeders to use middle-distance stallions and mares. 

If there are going to be competitive Group 1 races for middle-distance three-year-olds, there will need to be far more than 120 maiden and conditions races every year in Britain and Ireland for three-year-olds over more than ten furlongs.  

Middle-distance racing has traditionally been the summit of European racing. If this is no longer the case in the future, there is little doubt that the spectacle of racing will be diminished but, in addition, it seems clear that the quality of British and Irish thoroughbreds will also be threatened.  

The best thoroughbreds have always been a product of a balance between different types of horses with different aptitudes, and those countries or systems who have lost this balance are not those whose horses dominate international racing today. 

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"I know Dan always thought a lot of him, but to have bred what Dan calls the best horse he’s ever had is quite an accolade," says Jackie Chugg as she chats about The New Lion in the Bloodstock Big Read.

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Pedigree pick

Very few will notice this with the Cheltenham Festival looming large, but Ryan Moore takes his first ride in either Ireland or Britain this year in the William Hill Top Price Guarantee Patton Race (8.00) at Dundalk on Friday. 

As you might expect, he partners a blue-blooded Ballydoyle runner, Mount Kilimanjaro, who was runner-up to stablemate Twain in the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint-Cloud last October. 

However, it is the Night Of Thunder newcomer, Titanium Emperor, who we are interested in. 

The three-year-old colt was bred by the Tsui family’s Sunderland Holding out of the Sea The Stars mare My Titania, a Group 3 winner herself but also the dam of Group 2 winners and Group 1-placed My Prospero and My Oberon, and Listed winner and Group 1-placed My Astra. 

Ben McElroy bought him on behalf of Amo Racing for 220,000gns at Book 1 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale, and he’s of interest on his debut for Adrian Murray in a fascinating little race well worth a two-minute diversion from trying to find the winner of the County Hurdle.

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