Buyers out to solve the sales equivalent of a Rubik’s Cube at the Tattersalls Craven Breeze-Up

Buying racehorses is a puzzle. And when it comes to finding future talent, the yearling sales is a bit like attempting a 1,000-piece jigsaw blindfolded. There are so many unknowns that even if you somehow manage to identify all the necessary pieces, getting them in order is a whole other matter.  

However, at the breeze-ups, so much more is revealed. That is not to say finding a good horse in this market is easy. But this is less 1,000-piece jigsaw blindfolded, and more like tackling a Rubik’s Cube wearing oven gloves. Identifying the right moves is that bit more straightforward, even if making them still proves something of a challenge. 

There is, of course, a certain irony to this analogy, as the breeze-ups actually present potential purchasers with far more factors – or pieces of the puzzle, if you like – to analyse. 

Although still something of a contentious issue, granular sectional times are now virtually ubiquitous. There is also stride length to consider as well as stride frequency, acceleration, deceleration, action, attitude, wind and willingness, to highlight but a few. The deeper you dig, the more there is to learn. 

While the imponderables abound at the yearling sales, the evidence available at the breeze-ups offers buyers greater clarity. These factors may not tell you everything, and they certainly don’t provide any guarantees on the racecourse, but these are important hoops for a young horse to jump through. 

And, moreover, so many of these factors are more quantifiable than the evidence on offer at the yearling sales. An eye for a horse, whatever that means anyway, is just as important as an eye for a spreadsheet (whatever that means), it seems. 

And as time goes on, the methods of analysing these data points are becoming ever more tried and tested. This has proved a blessing and a curse. 

When vendors bring what buyers perceive to be the right article to market, there is a fat margin for profit. Purchasers understandably feel the additional layers of data are removing the guesswork and increasing their chances of buying a fast horse. The odds are more in their favour. 

This greater degree of certainty – or at least diminished uncertainty – invariably leads to more competitive tension in the ring. That is to say, the price ceiling for the prospects that show up well on all the relevant markers and metrics has been raised significantly. 

But buying horses at public auction is just as much an exercise in negative prediction. The old adage goes: breeze well, sell well. By extension, horses who are perceived to breeze poorly tend to sell accordingly. 

Harnessing data may have increased buyers’ confidence for some, but it has narrowed the parameters of what the market deems acceptable. Polarisation is likely to be among the watchwords throughout the breeze-up season, and is precisely what Eddie O’Leary, whose Lynn Lodge Stud offers six lots at this year’s Craven Sale, reached for when asked for his predictions for the two days ahead. 

“It’s like everything else, if you breeze, you vet and you have the physical, if you jump through all three hoops, the market will be very good,” he said. “But, like most things are in this industry, it’ll be polarised. There are a lot of people here though and we’ve been very busy after the breeze, so I’m hopeful.” 

Although buyers and sellers may have differing opinions on the value of using data to buy flesh and blood, they tend to be united in their optimism. 

And conditions during last year’s yearling sales meant pinhookers needed to be at their most optimistic, as prices, especially at the autumn sales, proved particularly buoyant. Detailed analysis of the pinhook prices reveals vendors have invested well in excess of £8,000,000 in yearling receipts to bring the Craven catalogue to market. 

And this sizeable sum does not take into account the considerable costs – nevermind the blood, sweat and tears – involved in bringing a horse from the yearling stage to the start of its two-year-old season. Make no mistake, this is no small undertaking. 

The strength of the market at last year’s yearling sales was, in no small part, down to Amo Racing’s remarkable recruitment drive. Whether that intensity of trade can be maintained into the breeze-ups remains to be seen, but vendors likely breathed a sigh of relief when they clocked Amo principal Kia Joorabchian and his team among those doing their due diligence at Park Paddocks on Monday afternoon. 

Joorabchian was far from alone, as plenty of other prospective purchasers were on the ground, including talent spotters from the likes of Coolmore, Godolphin and the emerging Wathnan Racing operation. One observer said footfall on the Rowley Mile during the breeze was “as busy as I’ve ever seen it.” 

And buyers have at least five good reasons to be optimistic about the Craven. The last four editions have produced five Group 1-winning graduates, including top-class two-year-olds Native Trail and Vandeek, as well as last year’s Futurity Trophy scorer Hotazhell. 

Hotazhell: winner of last season's Futurity Trophy Stakes was bought at the Craven sale for 200,000gnsCredit: CAROLINE NORRIS

The other two Group 1 winners, Believing and Cachet, were  bought by Highclere Agency, and both cost less than the average price at their respective sales. Believing was secured for 115,000gns in 2022, while Cachet fetched 60,000gns 12 months earlier. Although Believing did not carry the Highclere silks to victory in this year’s Al Quoz Sprint, her sale to Coolmore for 3,000,000gns probably went some way to softening the blow. 

Highclere’s Jake Warren was among those combing the grounds on Monday afternoon, and took a brief pause from his inspections to explain how he dovetails data with a more traditional approach. 

“We look at the times, but we by no means have it as our central mechanism for buying,” he said. “I was brought up on physicals, so we consider the overall make and shape compared to the pedigree, then factor in the times to a degree. Sometimes the times and the data can lead you down the wrong path, so we try to keep all the variables open and not be too dependent on any one thing.” 

He added: “I really like to see what I call a progressive time; a horse that is getting faster as it’s going, relative to the distance. I like to see them finishing strongly and watch the gallop out beyond the timing gates, that’s something we keep an eye on.” 

Warren also expanded on the purchase of Believing, and how factors that cannot be measured on a spreadsheet remain a vital piece of the breeze-up puzzle. 

“Believing was carrying some condition when we bought her, I’m sure Mick Fitzpatrick [Kilminfoyle House Stud] won’t mind me saying,” he said. “She was a chunky filly with a fair bit of condition, and we had that on our mind as well as her time, which was middling but acceptable. 

“She’s also by a stallion [Mehmas] who’s become incredibly successful. He's a fast stallion and she’s out of a Kodiac mare, and all of those things combined gave us the confidence to go for it. To be able to compare the horse visually, and compare that with its time, you can see things like the ones who are carrying a bit of condition, and those are important factors for us.”

We will likely see some buyers lean into the technological angle at this year’s breeze-up sales, including those who go on to spend significant money. There will also be those who rely more heavily on the longer-established methods, while some, like Warren, will tread a line between the two approaches. Only time will tell who got it right, so let the games begin. 

Tattersalls Craven Breeze-Up Sale factfile

Where Tattersalls, Newmarket

When Selling begins after racing on Tuesday and Wednesday at 5.45

Last year’s stats From 147 offered lots, 106 sold (72 per cent) for turnover of 14,584,500gns (down five per cent year-on-year), an average of 137,590gns (up 13 per cent) and a median of 80,000gns

Notable graduates Believing (sold by Kilminfoyle House Stud, bought by Highclere Agency for 115,000gns); Cachet (sold by Hyde Park Stud, bought by Highclere Agency for 60,000gns); Hotazhell (sold by Lackendarra Stables, bought by Silverton Hill for 200,000gns); Native Trail (sold by Oak Tree Farm, bought by Godolphin for 210,000gns); Vandeek (sold by Glending Stables, bought by Stroud Coleman Bloodstock for 625,000gns)

Read more

‘It’s not a vanity project – if it goes badly wrong it’s going to hit us hard’ – Station Yard out to build on stunning breeze-up debut 

Pythia Sports leading the data drive for new breeze-up sale purchases 

'A tremendous horse in all aspects' - Mineshaft pensioned from stud duty aged 26 

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