Bold predictions: what we might see in the bloodstock world in 2019

Racing is full of surprises and makes fools of us all most years but, undeterred, the Racing Post Bloodstock team present their predictions of what will (or at least might) happen in 2019 as we embark on what is sure to be another action-packed 12 months.

1 Superstar stallion Galileo to draw a British Classic blank

Galileo enjoyed another fine year in 2018, bettering his father's haul of worldwide Group and Grade 1 winners to set him firmly on the path towards overhauling Danehill's world record of 84, a mark it is hard to see him failing to pass.

Despite his undoubted brilliance though, and certain in the knowledge he will sire more than his fair share of top-level winners around the globe once again in 2019, it is not going to be his year when it comes to the five British Classic races.

Forever Together (Oaks) and Kew Gardens (St Leger) gave him two winners in the set last year but others will have their way this time around, with Dubawi's Too Darn Hot a Qipco 2,000 Guineas good thing.

Too Darn Hot will probably go on and win the Investec Derby too but if things do not go his way in that race, Quorto can become the Darley flagbearer's first Epsom hero. Keep an eye out too for Tankerville, by Roaring Lion's sire Kitten's Joy.

In the fillies' division, the Qipco 1,000 Guineas goes the way of American raider Newspaperofrecord, a daughter of Lope De Vega, while Camelot's Goddess will bounce back from a juvenile campaign hampered by last year's Ballydoyle bug and take the Investec Oaks for Aidan O'Brien.

Admittedly, the William Hill St Leger is where this theory could easily fall apart given Galileo's fine record in the race but I have not given up on the Frankel colt Old Glory just yet and can see him developing into a candidate for this contest as the season progresses.
Mark Scully
Group bloodstock editor

2 Telescope to sire a first-crop juvenile winner

Although his first book of mares included the dams of Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Sizing John and Cork Grand National winner Out Sam, I suspect Shade Oak Stud stallion Telescope might have a first-crop juvenile winner or two up his sleeve.

Among the mares the runaway Hardwicke Stakes scorer covered in his debut season at the Shropshire stud in 2016 was the Distinctly North mare Discoed, whose sons Je Suis Unrockstar and Pennine Warrior both scored over the minimum trip at Southwell as two-year-olds.

Telescope: no slouch as a two-year-old himselfCredit: Alan Crowhurst

Another producer of precocious sorts is the Monsieur Bond mare Fangfoss Girls, dam of the seven-time winner Roll On Rory – who opened his account in a Carlisle two-year-old maiden in May 2015 – and Pancake Day, also a winner by the time he turned three having won a sprint on the Southwell all-weather.

Hardy Blue’s colt could also fit the bill as the mare was a five-time juvenile winner, while another who catches the eye is the colt out of Sensazione World, who won three races and earned black type in Italy at two.

Telescope, an eight-year-old son of Galileo, was no slouch as a juvenile himself either, winning a Newmarket maiden that included subsequent Group 2 winner Excellent Result on just his second start.

So, should one of Telescope’s offspring show up in a two-year-old maiden in 2019, it might just pay to take notice.
Ollie O'Donoghue
Bloodstock reporter

3 Treve's first foal to make a late-season winning debut

Too Darn Hot and Quorto, the two highest rated two-year-olds of 2018, have similar pedigree profiles. Both are by Dubawi out of top-class middle-distance mares – Dar Re Mi, winner of the Yorkshire Oaks and Dubai Sheema Classic, and Volume, third in the Oaks at Epsom and the Curragh, respectively.

Arguably the most keenly anticipated juvenile of 2019 is also by Darley's flagship sire out of an outstanding female performer who excelled over 12 furlongs: the as-yet unnamed colt who is the first foal out of dual Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe heroine Treve.

Treve with her first foal, a colt by Dubawi - who turns two on January 1, 2019Credit: Haras de Bouquetot

It might be asking a bit much for Al Shaqab Racing's homebred, in training with Andre Fabre, to win at Group 1 level as Too Darn Hot and Quorto did – or indeed to score at Pattern level at all.

A more likely scenario is that Treve's son will make his debut in one of those autumn maidens at Longchamp, Saint-Cloud or Chantilly that are regularly chock-full of auspiciously bred debutants.

If he has inherited only a small portion of his parents' talent, he should win or finish placed in that and, were that to happen, then I suspect Fabre would send the colt to a conditions race either late this season or early next year with one eye on the 2020 Classic trials.

If all goes according to plan, in this space next year we could be boldly predicting that the Dubawi-Treve colt will land the Derby or Prix du Jockey Club.
Martin Stevens
Senior bloodstock journalist

4 Gutaifan to be champion first-season sire by volume

Following a year that saw the debut two-year-olds from the likes of No Nay Never, Kingman and Australia, 2019 has the potential to be another vintage season for stallions being represented by their first juveniles.

Among this year's freshman class are five Classic winners, namely Derby hero Golden Horn, 2,000 Guineas scorers Gleneagles and Night Of Thunder, runaway Poule d'Essai des Poulains victor Make Believe and Kingston Hill, who claimed the St Leger.

Muhaarar – one of the best sprinters of recent times, having landed four Group 1s in 2015 – will also supply his first runners in 2019, as will Prince of Wales's Stakes scorer Free Eagle and Outstrip, a Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf-winning son of burgeoning sire of sires Exceed And Excel.

Gutaifan: looks set to take after his sire Dark AngelCredit: Julian Herbert

However, those recruits with the right credentials will all have to go some if they are to deny Gutaifan claiming the champion first-season sire crown by number of winners.

The Yeomanstown Stud resident is a son of Dark Angel, who himself burst onto the scene by supplying 27 two-year-old winners in Britain and Ireland with his debut crop.

Like his sire, Gutaifan raced only at two, but proved himself a highly talented performer, winning the Prix Robert Papin and Flying Childers and also finishing runner-up in the Prix Morny.

Gutaifan can also boast another crucial factor required to succeed at stud: strong support from breeders. His debut crop numbers 163 foals, a figure that dwarfs the squads his rivals will be able to call upon. Moreover, there is quality as well as quantity, with his first book of mares including 23 black-type performers.

His first two-year-olds include a €360,000 half-sister to dual Group 2 winner Anda Muchacho named Love Powerful; a 225,000gns colt bought by Al Shaqab Racing at Book 1; a 200,000gns colt bought by Shadwell at Book 2; and a closely related half-sister to Battaash, who was bought by Phoenix Thoroughbreds for 180,000gns.

With Gutaifan's progeny having ended up in the yards of trainers such as Roger Varian, Richard Hannon, Richard Fahey and Hugo Palmer, a slew of winners surely awaits.
James Thomas
Deputy bloodstock editor

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