John O'Connor, Henri Devin and Ted Durcan join our bloodstock jury
Oliver St Lawrence and Gina Bryce also discuss the year ahead
What are you looking forward to most in 2020?
Gina Bryce, Sky Sports Racing presenter: I can't wait to see what crack juvenile Pinatubo will achieve. The stayers division could also really light up the 2020 season not only through the exploits of Stradivarius and his Ascot conqueror Kew Gardens but also with the added spice of the hugely impressive St Leger winner Logician in the mix and another potential pretender emerging in Technician.
Henri-Francois Devin, Chantilly trainer: I'm looking forward to training winners! I always look forward to the time of the good races in the spring and the French Guineas in particular.
Ted Durcan, Classic-winning jockey-turned agent: It would be very beneficial for everyone, if by the end of the year, we have the uncertainty of Brexit removed, once and for all, as this may help to alleviate the cautious and worrying outlook for some people. Every year I find the first three months of the Flat season both exciting and intriguing as some high profile bubbles get burst dramatically and some future stars emerge from the woodwork.
Oliver St Lawrence, bloodstock agent: Godolphin look to have a really exciting crop of two-year-olds led by Pinatubo – it will be fun to see Coolmore have the fight taken to them again in the Classics. Hopefully Roger Varian’s Rockfel Stakes winner Daahyeh can be in the mix in the fillies' division.
John O'Connor, Ballylinch Stud: Health, happiness and some success on the track.
What are you most apprehensive about in 2020?
GB: The welfare debate surrounding racing continues to rage on and, whether justified or not, continues to garner quite significant weight of public opinion across the globe. I really hope racing can find a way to effectively tackle these often hyped and inaccurate assumptions about our sport and reset the narrative to ensure its future health going forward.
HD: I'm lucky to have a nice yard, good staff and good owners so I've got no reason to feel apprehensive. I was disappointed that Maisons-Laffitte had to close for 2020 as it's an excellent track and my horses always ran well there. I'm hoping this temporary closure won't have too great an impact on the quality of French racing.
TD:The old chestnut of prize-money. How in this day and age we can still sell racing to future clients by offering returns of £3,000 and less for a winner? It is not sustainable. I feel some of the racetracks play the poor mouth once too often and contribute and commit only to what they are obliged to and we, as horsemen, accept this and are continuing to be too lenient on this matter.
OSL: Brexit still looms - the trade negotiations with the EU possibly having a big impact for all even if only for ease of horse transport. On a more personal note, I’m always anxious to see how yearling and mare purchases work out, as well as if stallion matings produce the perfect foal!
Sales seemed strong in 2019, do you think that actually was the case and if so, what was the cause?
GB: I do think the sales were strong. The market at the top end was buoyed in no small part by American investment, perhaps attributable to the increasing lack of diversity in their own bloodstock market and an expanded domestic turf programme. We are lucky to have the reputation of housing some of the best bloodstock in the world and therefore our second-hand goods are also well sought after.
HD: That was the case (particularly at the top end), although the nomination prices are very high, which means margins may be smaller than what they seem. The strong demand from the US at Book 1 had a very positive impact on the rest of the sales. Turf racing is improving over there and the weak pound to the dollar made the horses cheaper for them.
TD:Fortunately for everybody in the industry, there is always a healthy appetite for a good horse. Regrettably, it’s the polar opposite at the other end of the market which, in recent times, has been totally saturated and overpopulated.
OSL:The top was certainly ferocious, the middle was very fashionably selective and the bottom was hard to witness. With hindsight there was definitely value to be had out there; hopefully I caught some of it.
Galileo owned the 2010s, who do you think we might be talking about as the dominant sire come 2029?
GB:Kingman and No Nay Never are two of the hottest young sires we have seen for some time. The results on the track and in the sales ring have been nothing short of astounding. No Nay Never is going to be bred to some of the best Galileo mares around, which is going to be a huge aid, however Kingman just edges the vote given his potential versatility as a sire of horses that also stay well.
HD: I think we'll struggle to find as influential a stallion as Galileo. Frankel's statistics are excellent so far and Kingman looks like a dominant stallion in the near future.
TD:I will be absolutely amazed if Kingman and American Pharoah are still not making headlines ten years from now.
OSL:I was going to say Galileo’s half-brother Sea The Stars but I think Juddmonte have the answer in Kingman, who seems to really upgrade his stock. His progeny are good two-year-olds and cover the eight- to ten-furlong bracket nicely. Being free of Sadler’s Wells and Danehill lines is hugely attractive to breeders.
Who is your pick to be next year's leading first-crop two-year-old sire?
GB: I like the idea of Territories. He is a son of Invincible Spirit, who has Kingman and Cable Bay flying his flag at stud. Territories was a very good racehorse, and is from the family of Street Cry and Shamardal, two of the most influential stallions in the stud book. His progeny were well received and he has the numbers, which is all important in the quest for the first-season sire title.
HD: I think Shalaa is an obvious favourite to do well. I also liked the yearlings I saw by Territories - Invincible Spirit is obviously a good sire of sires.
TD: While I don’t think Shalaa will have the numbers on the floor to make him champion first-season sire, I was very impressed with his yearlings that I viewed this year.
OSL:I liked the Shalaas (though I failed to buy one) and he looked as if he could get some two-year-old quality stock. I tip Mehmas to have plenty of two-year-old winners (hopefully with some quality). The slightly later maturing Classic type looked to be New Bay.
Can you give us a dark horse to look out for on the track for 2020?
GB: Sticking with the Kingman theme I will nominate Oriental Mystique. She is out of Madame Chiang, who was raced by the same connections to Group 1 success, and I think this filly can go a long way to emulating her dam. She was very impressive in winning her maiden and is a gorgeous filly with size and scope. She’s one to look forward to.
HD: Sheikh Mohammed Obaid sent me a very nice yearling by Dubawi out of his Group 3-winning broodmare Nargys. We also have five or six unraced two-year-old colts and fillies that could be anything, which include a nice colt called Relocate.
TD:If I may, here's two! Highest Ground excites me enormously and I very much look forward to monitoring his year ahead. Aerclub is another horse that I will be following closely and I think he will only improve with time.
OSL:We’ve always very much liked a beautiful Le Havre filly with Roger Varian called Waliyak. She took three attempts to actually win her maiden but hopefully she can fulfil the high hopes we have for her.
JOC: I think Jim Bolger’s Fiscal Rules, who was just touched off by Wichita in a good Curragh maiden, will be a horse to follow in 2020.
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- Broken glass and burst blood vessels at a totes emosh renewal of the December Foal Sale
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- A glitch in the bloodstock matrix as Coolmore throw shade, Mangan messes with my dinner plans and a new master of sales ring satire emerges