‘No matter how much data is available, horsemanship will always remain a vital component’ - Billy Jackson-Stops in the breeze-up Q&A hot seat

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With the European two-year-old sales season fast approaching, we've hit up a host of leading industry names in our Behind the Breeze-Up Scene Q&A series. In the fifth and final instalment, Billy Jackson-Stops, the agent responsible for unearthing last year’s Dewhurst Stakes hero Gewan, fields our questions.

1. Which of this year’s breeze-up sales are you most looking forward to?

The Craven and Arqana are always the ones I look forward to most, as they tend to have the best horses.

2. Which of this year’s first-season sires do you think will show up well at this year’s breeze-ups, and is there an under the radar name you’ll be keeping an eye on? 

You would expect Minzaal, Caturra and Persian Force to produce very capable breeze-up types, being by Mehmas, whose progeny have consistently breezed effectively. There didn’t seem to be much discussion around Naval Crown during the yearling and foal sales, but both of his runners to date have gone very well. There’s also been some positive talk among breeze-up consignors, so he looks like one who could come in under the radar.

3. Put these factors in order of importance when assessing a two-year-old's breeze: two-furlong time, stride length, style of breeze, pedigree 

Two-furlong time: time is obviously very important, relative to pedigree, and is a decisive indicator of whether a horse may have ability; Pedigree: pedigree is important for every horse. There are always anomalies, but what’s on paper is generally a good guide to what might be in front of you; Style of breeze; you want to see a willing horse that tries. If a horse records a good time but does so with its head up or hanging, that’s obviously a red flag; Stride length: this needs to be considered alongside cadence and then matched to pedigree to be truly meaningful.

Billy Jackson-Stops: "Naval Crown looks like one who could come in under the radar."Credit: Alisha Meeder

4. To what extent do you think data shapes the modern-day breeze-up market? 

Fairly significantly. There are now a lot of people working in the background using AI and other data tools to assist with pedigree analysis, biometrics and various other components. Some owners are buying yearlings and breezers based on data models they’ve built. However, no matter how much data is available, I think horsemanship will always remain a vital component in buying winners.

5. What kind of market conditions are you expecting at this year’s breeze-up sales? Do you think the conflict in the Middle East will have a significant bearing? 

The breeze-up sales have improved year on year, and that’s been reflected in the growing size of the buying bench. I’d like to think that continues this year. However, considering how many owners from the Middle East have bought at these sales in recent years, you would have to think the conflict will have some effect on the market. 

If gaps do appear, I suspect there’ll be plenty of people who see an opportunity and try to fill the void.

6. Who from the breeze-up world do you most admire? 

The Breeze-Up Consignors Association team ran an advert recently featuring five Classic winners sold at the breeze-up sales, and four of the five were sold by Norman Williamson. You have to admire him for that.

Gewan winning the Group 1 Dewhurst StakesCredit: Alan Crowhurst (Getty Images)

7. What’s your favourite breeze-up sale memory? 

What was a fond memory of buying Gewan last year has recently become a very sad memory with the news of his passing. My thoughts go out to his owners and the entire team at Kingclere, who had done such a wonderful job with him. That was a blow to everyone.

8. The one that got away?

One that sticks in my memory because it was so early in my career and I was desperate to buy a decent horse was Zabeel Champion. Nick Bell and I were trying to cobble together a group to buy him after he had breezed at the lower end of the Craven Sale. He made 20,000gns and we stretched to around 15,000gns, but Mark Johnston bought him. He went on to be rated 104 on the Flat and later changed hands for a large sum [185,000gns] to go jumping.

9. If you could change one thing to improve the breeze-up sales season, what would it be? 

It would be helpful to know rider weights, or alternatively to have all horses breeze off level weights.

Richard Brown: a master of the breeze-up gameCredit: Laura Green

10. If you had to let another agent buy you a breezer, who would you choose? 

Richard Brown: he cut his teeth in the breeze-up market and has found countless Group 1 winners there.

11. Who would play you in a film about your life? 

Jack Black.

12. Who would your three ideal post-sales dinner guests be and which restaurant would you eat at?

Toto Wolff – having succeeded in business and then taken a Formula 1 team to the top, he’d be fascinating to talk to. Ronan O’Gara – with 128 international appearances and having led La Rochelle to European Cup success, I’d love to hear his thoughts on building a successful team culture. Dave Brailsford – He led Team Sky to six Tour de France victories and headed Team GB Cycling; it would be interesting to hear how they’ve used data in cycling. Socius in Burnham Market would be the restaurant.

Catch up on our other Behind the Breeze-Up Scene Q&As: 

'The major buyers are all very much data-driven' - Matt Coleman 

‘I look for statistical outliers when stride, time and pedigree don’t align as expected’ - Jamie Piggott 

‘Buying Cachet will always be my favourite memory…even if I broke the pedigree rule’ - Jake Warren 

'Most of us can spot the obvious horses but we don’t necessarily have the budget' - Mark McStay