No stopping Fed Express in New York final
ONLY Rafael Nadal has been able to beat Roger Federer in the final of a Grand Slam and only the brave - or indeed foolish - would back against the great man making it six titles in succession in tonight's New York showpiece.
Juan Martin Del Potro can justifiably claim to be the coming force in men's tennis after his demolition of Nadal in Sunday's delayed semi-finals, but it is a huge ask for the 20-year-old to dethrone the king of tennis in his first Major and he represents little value at 11-4.
Roger Federer - on course for a sixth straight win in New York
PICTURE: GETTY IMAGESThe fifth seed's performances to reach the final cannot be faulted and he was utterly superb in the semi-finals, however victory over a half-fit Nadal in teh Spaniard's least favourite Slam, is a million miles away from beating a fully charged Federer.
The Swiss star was absolutely purring in his three set semi-final win over Novak Djokovic on Sunday, is playing in his seventh straight Slam final and hasn't been beaten at Flushing Meadows since 2003.
Only a performance of Safin-esque proportions from Del Potro will prevent Federer from continuing his remarkable run and, while that is not imposible, it is extremely unlikely and certainly less likely than the best price of 11-4 suggests.
Safin was also 20 when he shocked the world with one of the greatest one-off displays in tennis history against Pete Sampras in 2000. A win for Del Potro would besimilarly surprising.
Backing the great man at 2-7 will not be everyone's cup of tea, but it is the value bet in the match and is the kind of price that will have the big-hitters salivating.
Those looking of for a more palatable price should switch their attention to the total aces market.
Federer's remarkable big match consistency owes plenty to his undoubted genius once the rallies have begun, but his ability on serve and return is where he really scores.
Only Fernando Gonzalez has out-aced the great man in his 19 Grand Slam finals and Coral have made a major blunder in going 5-6 each of two in their aces match bet market.
Del Potro's serve has undoubtedly improved in the last year and is now a real weapon, but he has been out-aced by Federer in four out of their six meetings and should surely be outsider.
Recommendation
R Federer most aces, 2pt 5-6 (Coral)
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