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6-1 Zach looks value to stop Stricker Deere run

By Jeremy Chapman 11:37AM 15 JUL 2012

JOHN DEERE CLASSIC - STORY OF ROUND THREE

JOURNEYMAN Troy Matteson triple-putted the last hole at Deere Run last night to open the door for Steve Stricker to drive through to his fourth straight victory in the John Deere Classic - but first the pre-tournament 7-1 favourite has to make up three shots on the 200-1 outsider.

The layers still make Matteson favourite at 13-8 but, with Stricker and chief market rival Zach Johhson right on his tail, not too many expect the leader to stay in front. All three men shot 66s on the birdie-strewn par-71 layout on which Stricker stands 83 under par for his last 14 rounds and Johnson posted his 15th straight sub-70.

Stricker, now at 2-1, dropped a shot himself at the last after a wayward drive but had preceded that error with the four consecutive birdies that lifted him into a prime challenging position for his second victory of 2012. The putting problems which had marred his summer appeared a thing of the past as he holed putt after birdie putt in another sizzling display on his favourite course.

He and 6-1 shot Johnson, the two stars of golf in America's Mid-West, will carry the crowd with them today and as Matteson, who has led from day one, says: "Nobody will be paying any attention to what I do. It's great for me if I win but if Stricker wins, it's a great story."

Johnson, second and third to Stricker at the Illinois course in two of the last three years, is a stroke behind the defending champion in a share of third place with rookie left-hander Brian Harman, a pre-tournament 150-1 shot who appears to be feeding off last week's success of another rookie lefty, Ted Potter. He got within a stroke of Matteson, a double winner of the Frys.com Open in 2006 and 2009, at one stage.

John Senden, the tall Aussie who won the 2006 John Deere, is among those at 13 under and five off the pace but even on a soft course where Matteson opened up with a 61, it's difficult to see anybody else getting past the front three in the betting.

Leaderboard: -18 Matteson, -15 Stricker, -14 Z Johnson, Harman, -13 Senden, Henry, Hurley, -12 Piercy, DiMarco, Gates, Christian, Lovemark, -11 Moore, Garrigus, Barnes, Maggert, Appleby, Brown, -10 Clark, Noh, de Jonge, Janzen, Biershank, Horschel, Compton

Best prices: 13-8 Matteson, 2 Stricker, 6 Johnson, 14 Harman, 22 Senden, 33 Henry, 50 Hurley, 66 Piercy, 80 DiMarco, Moore, Garrigus, 100 bar

TODAY'S BETTING ADVICE

Matteson, a tour regular since 2006, has the two big names on his tail but neither Stricker nor Johnson carries the fear factor of a Tiger Woods. Even if he gets beaten, Matteson will almost certainly get the last spot in the Open Championship as his two main dangers have already qualified.

Of more concern than the quality of his closest purusers is the fact that the leader is having such a poor season and, despite being 18 under par, does not really look in control of his game. He has got away with some loose driving so far but when push comes to shove on Sunday's back nine, will his luck hold?

Stricker has the advantage of playing alongside Matteson and will have a partisan crowd rooting for him as he lives only a couple of hours away but he is under his own sort of pressure as he tries to emulate Woods and become only the second player in the modern era to win four in a row on the PGA Tour.

If there is any value in the market, it surely has to be with Johnson each-way at 6-1 (they're paying a fifth the first three). He's a course specialist who has won more recently than Stricker, at Colonial at the end of May, and has been in better form with the flat stick.

Two of golf's Cinderella men, Erik Compton and Gary Christian, appeal on the twoball front, along with the gutsy little South African Tim Clark who is on the comeback trail after missing almost all of 2011 with an elbow problem.

Compton, who has had two heart transplants but finally got a full tour card after winning in Mexico on the satellite circuit last year, rates a bit of value at 23-20 against rookie Billy Horschel while Christian, an Englishman from Carshalton with a homemade swing who has made a new life for himself in Alabama and earned his first tour card just short of his 40th birthday, is a fair 21-20 chance against veteran Chris DiMarco as the former Ryder Cupper is painful to watch these days on the dance floors.

It is hard to make much money when you're 181st for driving power, 173rd for greens in regulation and 115th in putting, which is the sad state in which DiMarco finds himself. He has not had a top-ten for three years. Both men have two top-20s to their credit this year but Christian has the more ambition and is a far more recent winner, albeit at the lower level of last September's Mylan Classic on the Web.com (formerly Nationwide) Tour.

However, the day's best bet should be 5-6 chance Clark, fourth at River Highlands last month and runner-up at Deere Run on his course bow in 2007. He faces an out-of-form YE Yang, 56 over par for his last eight starts and without even a top-25 in strokeplay golf this year to his name.

Outright recommendation

Z Johnson, 2pts each-way 6-1 general

Twoballs recommendation

Clark, 3pts 5-6 Bet365 (4.45)

Compton, 1pt 23-20 Bet365 (5.05)

Christian, 1pt 21-20 Bet365 (5.45)