Camelot: was the Irish Derby an ideal prep for the St Leger?

  PICTURE: Getty Images  

Camelot's haul a fair reflection of his talent

IT WAS a busy week with three of the world's top seven horses in action around the globe. Camelot lost the Triple Crown in the St Leger, Orfevre came out on top in the Arc trials and the best horse in North America, Wise Dan, handed out another drubbing at Woodbine.

CAMELOT

Whether Camelot deserved to win the Triple Crown and whether he could have done are two different matters.

As far as deserving goes, perhaps two British Classics is a fair reflection of the colt's ability; his incredibly successful season fuelled as much by lack of opposition as talent.

But judging by the way he closed the gap from four lengths to three quarters of a length a gainst Encke in the final furlong of the St Leger on Saturday (especially after a slow early pace), he clearly might have landed the Triple Crown under different circumstances.

Hindsight is easy, but foresight and planning is what wins in sport. Talent is only half the battle. The rest is in the planning: removing the unknown variables from the equation.

Camelot did not have luxury of removing the unknown variable of 'distance', since the step up in trip is the point of the Triple Crown. But connections could have closed out a few more of those variables.

If the St Leger was the be-all and end-all of his season then perhaps running him in bottomless ground in the Irish Derby on his previous start was not ideal.

And perhaps he could have had a more recent run going into the Leger - Ballydoyle horses often come on for a race - and he certainly didn't travel as fluently as he normally does in the early stages on Saturday.

That's the preparation, but there were also tactical oversights. Aidan O'Brien admits he should have run a pacemaker to ensure a decent gallop, while a look back at recent renewals would have shown son Joseph, Camelot's jockey, that it can be hard to find the gaps up the inside. Only last year Sea Moon was relegated to a staying-on third after being repeatedly blocked for a run. He later proved to be the best horse in the race.

Hindsight can be frustrating and, in a result as tight as the St Leger, there could be considered a number of variables which may have swayed the result back to Camelot.

On the whole, however, Camelot has probably received due reward for his talents. The record shows he was a Guineas winner (although the form has worked out horribly) and the record shows he lost the St Leger (although circumstances may have conspired against him).

The pain will last a while for the Ballydoyle team, but given the three-year-old talent they have at their disposal every year and that their ambition is always geared towards the Classics, they might find themselves in a position to give it another shot in 20 years' time.

Encke posted an RPR of 122 for winning the St Leger on Saturday, which ranks him alongside Pastorius as the second best three-year-old in Europe.

The best three-year-old in Europe is still Camelot, but he could post an RPR of only 121 when finishing second on the weekend, his first career defeat.

ORFEVRE

In winning a slowly run Prix Foy, Orfevre showed he was the best sprinter of the five-runner field, but the race did not tell us much about his Arc credentials.

He was beaten twice in Japan earlier in the year through reasons which have nothing to do with his ability or resolution, but granted a true pace in the Takarazuka Kinen in June he banged out a career-best RPR of 129.

It was to his credit that he won at all off the slow pace in the Foy on Sunday, since he was not able to win when things did not fall right earlier in the year.

The one thing going for this horse is his class. If you give him a decent pace to run at, he will run it quicker than anything in Japan. And, perhaps, than anything in the Arc.

Muddling races don't suit him and he ran keen for over half a mile at the weekend while Christophe Soumillon tried to settle him in last.

He was forced to work in the closing stages and, after running free early, this race should have blown away the cobwebs from his summer break.

Japanese connections are taking Arc preparation more professionally with every raid. Orfevre hasn't run in Japan since June, he flew over early, he has now won a prep in France and he has a top local jockey booked. The Japanese are closing out those unknown variables and will win the race sooner or later. This one has the class, he just needs the breaks.

Orfevre ran to just 119+ in the Foy, with Meandre running to 117+ in second. Third-placed Joshua Tree (116) finished far too close to have the form any higher.

The positives to take from the race for the winner are that he took ground out of fast-finisher Meandre after coming from last in a slow-run race and having refused to settle early. He wasn't dazzling, but only a Group 1 sprinter could dazzle in a typical Arc trial.

The Prix Niel was an even greater farce of a 'trial', run in a time over a second slower than the Foy and over six seconds slower than the Vermeille. All six runners were in a straight line at the 100m pole and the form is meaningless.

Given the slow pace and tight positioning so close to the line, it took a fair burst of speed from Saonois to scoot through and score by a length and a quarter. He earned an RPR of 114+, which is 4lb off his Prix du Jockey Club mark and tells us little extra about him.

Even though the Prix Vermeille produced much the fastest time of the three trials, it still paid to be handy and last year's Arc second Shareta stole a big lead off the front to win with an RPR of 114. Pirika (110+), in second, and Yellow And Green (108+), in fourth, made the best ground against the pace.

In the Prix du Moulin Frankie Dettori tried to control the pace on Farhh (126). It's a job the jockey absolutely excels at in France, but Moonlight Cloud (123) was just too quick in the straight and picked him off to score by a head.

WISE DAN

World Class favourite and the best horse in the US on any surface Wise Dan again showed his incredible consistency by crushing his rivals in the Woodbine Mile on Sunday.

There can't be many unbelievers left after the talented and versatile five-year-old saw off the European challenge headed by Cityscape in the same manner he demolished the US turf horses on his previous start.

He matched his best turf performance with an RPR of 127, winning by three and a quarter lengths from Hunter's Bay (118), with Cityscape (121) a further length back in third.

From the margin of his wins it might seem that he is better on turf, but he has actually achieved marginally better RPRs on both the dirt and all-weather (128). Given how easily he has won his last two on turf, however, he's probably equally effective on all surfaces.

This was his fifth RPR of 127 or better in a row and he should run to a similar mark at the Breeders' Cup, whichever race he ends up in.

The Classic may actually be weaker than the Mile this year, with so many of the best dirt horses sidelined and Excelebration (127) expected to lead a strong Euro challenge for the mile race.

The distance is the big question in the Classic. Even in a weak year, like 2011, it can be stamina (Drosselmeyer), rather than class which secures the win there.

If Wise Dan is capable of matching his best dirt/all-weather mark of 128 on the turf, he would be the highest-rated horse going into the Mile. But only narrowly.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Wise Dan 127, Charles Lopresti (US) (Woodbine Mile, Woodbine, 1m, September 16)

TOP LIST

TOP TURF PERFORMERS

TOP DIRT PERFORMERS

TOP ALL-WEATHER PERFORMERS

Comments

Log in to post comment

Show all comments