Zenyatta (center) splits Gripsholm Castle (left) and Pretty Katherine (right) during the Santa Margarita Invitational Stakes at Santa Anita

  PICTURE: AP Photo Benoit  

Zenyatta - still a force
to be reckoned with

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the best performances of last week according to Racing Post Ratings

TOP OF THE CLASS: Zenyatta 124

Trainer: John Shirreffs (US)

Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap, Santa Anita, 1m1f, March 13

ZENYATTA and Rachel Alexandra, the best horses in America last year, made their much-awaited reappearances on Saturday, but while one showed she is still a force to be reckoned with, the other left a nagging doubt over her retained ability.

It was not an entirely unforeseen set of events. Two consecutive headlines on the Daily Racing Form website last week read: 'Zenyatta may be better than last season' and 'Rachel may need this one', but their performances on the day were worlds apart.

With the anticipated match-up in the Apple Blossom Invitational little more than three weeks away, there can be no doubt which of these superstars should be favourite for the $5 million clash at Oaklawn Park - if, indeed, it goes ahead at all.

Make no mistake, Rachel Alexandra's defeat was a major upset. Even though her preparations had not gone quite as expected, she faced just one real stakes-performer in a field of five and that one was a massive 19lb inferior on adjusted RPRs.

It was that one, Zenyatta's stablemate Zardana, who prevailed, leaving last year's leading dirt/AW horse three-quarters-of-a-length away in second with a 12-month-low RPR of 110.

Although the feeling of disappointment was tangible, connections of the favourite dismissed this result. Trainer Steve Asmussen put her poor showing down to "a lack of fitness" and jockey Calvin Borel said: "she needed the race, that's all."

They could well be right, as she had certainly not been working like her old self in the build-up to the race, while it is also likely that John Shirreffs would have had Zardana at fever-pitch in an attempt to soften-up the horse of the year before her date with Zenyatta.

But is that a complete explanation for her defeat, or could it be that Rachel Alexandra is simply not as good as she was?

It is not like she had it easy taking on the colts three times last season and she was given a rare old roasting by Borel to hold off the late challenge of Macho Again in the Woodward Stakes on her final start. Her owner Jess Jackson later admitted that he sensed she had been a little tired that day, even before the race, which was her eighth in the space of seven months.

On Saturday, she was entitled to be a touch ring rusty. Itwas her first run in six months and connections had warned she may need the run, but her lacklustre performance hints that there could be more to it than just needing the race. It may be that the series of spectacular exertions which saw her deservedly land the Eclipse Award in 2009 have taken their toll.

Let's hope that is not the case. Let's hope that this was just a blip and that she will be as good as ever when she is fully wound-up.
Let's hope she is still capable of beating next-time-out Grade 1 winners by 30 lengths, like she did in the Mother Goose, or of beating the best colts of her generation by six, as she did in the Haskell.

Let's hope she will come on a bundle for Saturday's run and return fit as a fiddle for the match-up everyone in racing has been looking forward to and let's hope she can make a race of it with Zenyatta. There's always hope.

But if there is any part of the great filly's game that was left onthe track during her outstanding 2009 campaign, it will be hard for her to bounce back against the scintillating six-year-old who simply dazzled at Santa Anita on Saturday.

Zenyatta is an enigma, and a bookies nightmare. Bookmakersearn a living from horses not running to form; from trading on the intricate web of variables which allow the even the best horses to lose, but Zenyatta is not privvy to those laws. There seems to be no variable which can get her beat.

A perfect 15 from 15 record is a rare thing in this game. Wikipedia lists just five horses with a better undefeated record and one of those is Eclipse, who clocked-up 18 back in the 18th century. The modern day era has seen nothing of the sort.
It seems that the Eclipse Award that connections have felt robbed of for the past two years could now be well within her grasp - hell, four more wins and they might have to change the name of the award.

Her latest success in the Santa Margarita Invitational was much akin to all of her others. She executed her trademark stretch-run to record a nonchalant victory under a big weight with her ever-confident rider Mike Smith looking as if he had just spotted Medusa in the crowd.

Despite meeting trouble in the straight, she cruised through to the front in good time and Smith could afford to ease her down near the line for a length-and-a-quarter score over Dance To My Tune (103). The form looks pretty solid in behind and, with ease factored in, Zenyatta is good value for an RPR of 124+.

She now heads to the Apple Blossom and, Rachel Alexandra or no Rachel Alexandra, the Californian will be the one to beat.

In the three-year-old division, Lookin At Lucky made a successful return to action when taking the Rebel Stakes by a head from old adversary Noble's Promise.

Although an RPR of 118+ doesn't rank as his best performance, it was a pleasing dirt debut from the son of Smart Strike, who showed real courage to knuckle down for the win after clipping heels with the runner-up and stumbling in the back stretch.

He is likely to build on this and should take the beating wherever he goes next. Bob Baffert has his eye on either the Wood Memorial or the Arkansas Derby as a final prep before the Kentucky Derby.