The Factor: bombed out recently but had previously looked a star

  PICTURE: Alex Evers/EquiSport Photos  

Quiet season in the US could impact on 2012

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

Trying to decide between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta left 2009 US Horse of the Year voters with a real conundrum.

This year they had a different problem. Instead of two serious challengers to the throne, in 2011 there was none.

The season started out well enough. Zenyatta, Blame, Lookin At Lucky and Quality Road had all retired, but three-year-olds The Factor and Uncle Mo offered plenty of early hope.

By April, however, they had both been sidelined and nothing in the intervening months managed to make up into a worthy Eclipse Horse of the Year.

With 2011 behind us, the question now becomes: how will this quiet season affect next year?

The carryover is an important factor in the strength of any horse population. Outside America, almost all of the leading lights are staying in training next term.

In Japan, triple-crowner Orfevre will train on at four, in Europe there will be Frankel, Excelebration, Snow Fairy, Danedream, So You Think and Cirrus Des Aigles.

From Australia, we will see more of Black Caviar, Sepoy, Hay List and Atlantic Jewel. But what of the US carryover?

Uncle Mo, Drosselmeyer and Tizway have all been retired but there are a few on the top list who are set to stay in training.

The most impressive winner at the Breeders' Cup was Caleb's Posse (127) and he will be back for more in 2012, along with the leading dirt performer by RPRs, Wise Dan (129), and Horse of the Year favourite Havre De Grace (125).

That trio suggest there should be plenty of high-end quality next season, particularly as they ended the seasonon an upward curve.

Havre De Grace showed improved form throughout 2011 until running fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic, while Wise Dan and Caleb's Posse both posted career best RPRs on their final starts.

They may not have done enough throughout the campaign to quite live up to past Horse of the Year winners, but they showed enough on their recent starts to suggest next year's older horse division will be as strong as ever.

The divisionwill be ably supported next term by the likes of The Factor, Animal Kingdom and Royal Delta.

We will find out more about The Factor on Boxing Day, when he tackles the Malibu Stakes. He bombed out in his last two races but before that had looked a real star.

If he fails to fire again on the weekend it would be optimistic to expect him to get back to his best next year, but if he wins well perhaps we can forgive those two sub-par efforts.

The Americans could actually get next year off to a flyer, since Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom is already training on Tapeta in preparation for the Dubai World Cup in March.

Things didn't go to plan for him this season, but he had valid excuses when defeated in the Preakness and Belmont and was injured thereafter, so he could still be anything.

Breeders' Cup winner Royal Delta is also pointing at the Dubai World Cup, which means the US challenge for the Dubai feature should be the strongest it has been since the race was switched to Tapeta in 2010.

In the two-year-old division there is further hope for next year, with the unbeaten My Miss Aurelia lookingparticularly special this term, while Union Rags also looked top dollar before his narrow, round-the-houses defeat in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

The Cashcall Futurity is often a good pointer for the coming sophomore crop and Saturday's winner Liaison could be another one to follow next term.

Six of the last eight renewals of the end-of-season feature have thrown up a Grade 1 winning three-year-old and those trained by Bob Baffert have been even more special.

Baffert's five previous winners of the race went on to huge success. There was Real Quiet (Kentucky Derby, Preakness), Point Given (Preakness, Belmont), Captain Steve (Dubai World Cup), Lookin At Lucky (Preakness, Haskell) and Pioneerof The Nile (Santa Anita Derby, 2^nd Kentucky Derby).

A Baffert winner of the Futurity was just what the US carryover needed and if Liaison is anything like the last bunch he will clearly star in 2012. He posted an RPR of 118 on the weekend, which is on a par with recent winners.

Second home was Rousing Sermon, who kept on fast and late to secure an RPR of 117. Runners-up in this race have often gone on to Grade 1 success and Jerry Hollendorfer's charge could be set to add to that tally.

The biggest RPR of the week came in Japan, where leading juvenile Alfredo posted a 121+ after bursting clear of the pack to score by a cosy two-lengths.

He'snow unbeaten in three and ranks as the highest rated two-year-old in the world on RPRs, ahead of Dabirsim, Hansen, My Miss Aurelia and Union Rags, all on 120.

Talk about carryover. This fella was impressive and he looks an exciting recruit for next season.

The Asahi Hai Futurity is often a hit or miss affair regarding future stars, although Dream Journey and Rose Kingdom both went on to Grade 1 success.

Alfredo is the highest-rated winner of Japan's premier juvenile race in the last ten years, so he should go down as one of the hits.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Alfredo 121+ Takahisa Tezuka (Jap) (Asahi Hai Futurity, Nakayama, 1m, Dec 18)

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