Sarafina (far side): needs to improve again on ratings to win the Arc

  PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)  

Older horses could hold aces in Arc puzzle

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

THREE-YEAR-OLDS have been winning the battle of the generations this season, but the retirement of Pour Moi could mean the Arc is set to go to an oldie.

Sophomores like Moonlight Cloud, Frankel, Nathaniel, Dream Ahead, Immortal Verse, Blue Bunting and, on Sunday, Excelebration have ruled the roost in the top-level meetings with their elders this year, fuelling talk of a bumper crop.

Most years the Arc could be relied upon to improve that record, but the three-year-old dominance in the Arc is not as deep as their winning record suggests and without their leading player they might be set to lose their stranglehold at Longchamp next month.

Pour Moi's retirement blasted the Arc wide open and after trials weekend the picture is not a great deal clearer.

It is impossible to say whether Pour Moi would have won the Arc, although he had an awful lot going for him and in his absence nothing has managed to secure a typical winner's profile.

Andre Fabre's charge will not be the first favourite for a championship race to miss the event and in the past these things have gone one of two ways.

Sometimes a very good alternative comes along, like when world champion Manduro was injured before the 2007 Arc and Dylan Thomas stepped up.

But sometimes, as we have seen in the Kentucky Derby in recent years, when the favourite (Eskendereya, Quality Road) drops out, nothing steps upand the horses who might have filled the frame behind the favourite are left to pick up the pieces (Super Saver, Mine That Bird).

This is an especially important consideration for the Arc because while three-year-olds have a good record of winning the Longchamp feature, they are not so good at filling the frame and with the leading sophomore out of action it could indicate we're set for an older horse success.

Seven of the last eight Arcs were won by three-year-olds. Of the seven runners-up to those winners, six were older horses (Nakayama Festa, Youmzain, Youmzain, Pride, Westerner, Mubtaker) and one, perhaps unsurprisingly, was a Fabre-trained three-year-old (Cherry Mix).

Dylan Thomas was the only older horse in the last eight years to win the Arc. Another older horse (Youmzain) finished second to him and yet another (Manduro) might have beaten him.

This suggests that although the best European three-year-old can, and oftendoes, beat the leading older horses in the Arc, the second best rarely does.

If Pour Moi was set to be the best three-year-old in the Arc (and the esteem Andre Fabre held him in suggests he would have been) then with him out of the picture should we now concentrate on the older horses? Or will the three-year-old domination in 2011 continue?

On an individual level, the older horses certainly seem to have a stronger team, especially withanother of the leading French three-year-olds, Baraan, who ran an unbelievable race in the Prix du Jockey Club when staying on for third after losing 15-lengths at the start, also sidelined through injury.

That leaves Nathaniel, Reliable Man, Meandre, Sea Moon and Galikova to lead the youngsters against a team of older horses which could include Sarafina, So You Think, Workforce, Hiruno D'Amour and Snow Fairy.

Sarafina came out best of the trialists on Sunday, winning the Prix Foy with a performance which again highlighted her impressive turn of foot.

She is a worthy favourite but has not yet achieved that one stand out piece of form which would put up with previous winners of the race.

With a peak RPR of 125+ she would need to find another couple of pounds to match an average winner of the race (less her fillies allowance). That level of improvement is not out of the question, as she might have gone close in the race last year, but it does mean you're banking on improvement at 7-2.

You'd be banking on a lot more improvement if you fancied the other trial winners Reliable Man (123+) or Galikova (121+). Again, it is not unheard of, but I was not sufficiently impressed with either to take single figures ante-post.

Although Reliable Man reversed Grand Prix de Paris form with Meandre, he could only confirm his supremacy over Colombian from the Prix du Jockey Club, so this was not a great step forward. He is still lightly raced and he may well find some improvement on Arc day.

Galikova took a big step forward in the Prix Vermeille, seeing out the extra distance well to post a career best RPR of 121+, but another big step up will be required to win an Arc.

The highest figure achieved on trials day was by Hiruno D'Amour (125), who was narrowly beaten by Sarafina in the Prix Foy.

He is a much bigger price than Sarafina at around 25-1 and holds place claims judged on Sunday's effort.

There are typically two types of Arc winner: those (often older horses) who have championship form in the book and those (generally French-based) progressive three-year-olds who have targeted the race all year.

Top class performers So You Think and Workforce are in the first group and Sarafina is almost there, as she doesn't actually hold any championship form, but she almost does (don't those unlucky/nearly horses worry you, though?).

Thesecond group has lost Pour Moi and Baraan and are left headed by Nathaniel, who hasn't targeted the race all season, but is smart, and Reliable Man, who could be the best French three-year-old, although he might have been the third best but for defections..

It is a shame about Pour Moi. He promised plenty and didn't get the opportunity to shine in the race he had long targeted.

With a narrow Derby win the best piece of form he has in the book, he retires with an unknown amount in hand. Fabre said he was one of the best he ever trained.

He might have won the Arc, but getting there is half the battle.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Hiruno D'Amour 125 Mitsugu Kon (Jap) (Prix Foy, Longchamp, 1m4f, Sept 11)

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