Horse of the Year wide open after Breeders' Cup

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

The Breeders' Cup was supposed to conclude the American Horse of the Year debate but all it created was more questions.

This was never going to be a Rachel Alexandra versus Zenyatta year, but the race for the leading Eclipse Award is more open than ever after NTRA poll leader Havre De Grace finished just fourth in the Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday.

Havre De Grace wasn't the only high-profile horse to have her bubble burst this weekend, as 11 of the leading 14 contenders on last week's NTRA Horse of the Year poll were beaten at the Breeders' Cup.

The other three (Tizway, Acclamation and Cape Blanco) had already hung up their racing plates through injury.

This Breeders' Cup apocalypse has left the race to become champion of America wide open.

In Britain and Australia the challenge this year has been to find a horse able to compete with superstars Frankel and Black Caviar, but Stateside the challenge is still to determine just which horse is the best.

Whoever eventually comes out on top in the final ballot, the Horse of the Year is unlikely to be a unanimous choice and even narrowing down a shortlist looks tricky.

Here's a quick synopsis of the leading Horse of the Year contenders post-Breeders' Cup:

Caleb's Posse

Posted the highest RPR (127) at the Breeders' Cup with a four-length success in the Dirt Mile.

He has won four graded races in 2011 including two G1s, although he has been beaten five times.

Seems to have gradually improved towards the end of the year; he took the scalp of Uncle Mo in the King's Bishop in August and impressed on the day that mattered most at Churchill Downs.

If it had been the Classic he had won on Saturday he would look the leading contender. But it wasn't.

Drosselmeyer

Won the key Horse of the Year race, the Classic. He was convincing enough and though the hold up horses fared notably well, the runner-up set the pace and it looked a fair result.

He won the Belmont Stakes last year, which has worked out quite well, with Fly Down and Game On Dude in the frame, but he's been very patchy since.

Boasts just two wins from seven starts in 2011, his only other success coming in the ungraded One Count Stakes and he has been beaten in races Classic winners shouldn't normally lose.

He posted a season's best RPR of 121 when second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on his previous start, indicating he was coming back to his best, but overall he looks more 'horse of one race' than horse of the year.

Ran to an RPR of 126 in the Classic, which is the lowest winning mark in the last ten years and reflects the abnormally high attrition rate in the US 1m2f division this year.

Havre De Grace

Clear top of the NTRA poll last week and even after defeat in the Classic she remains a strong contender for the title.

She is one of only three horses to have won three Grade 1s in the States this season, the others being Cape Blanco and Acclamation. She also won two G3s and is widely acknowledged as the best distaffer in the country.

Her rivalry with Blind Luck provided the narrative for the first half of the US season in the absence of any standout performers in the older males or Classic divisions. She came out best at the weights with Blind Luck on both meetings in 2011.

She went on to beat the boys in the Woodward, becoming only the second filly ever to do so after Rachel Alexandra.

Then she defeated Royal Delta (who went on to win the Ladies' Classic) by eight-and-a-quarter lengths, which shows how much she had in hand of the girls.

But should a defeat in the Classic dent her claims? It was a brave move to take on the boys in the Classic when she might have had a gimme in the Ladies' Classic.

If she had run in and won the Ladies' Classic there wouldn't be many doubting her claims for the HOTY title. But now?

As I pointed out last week, the title normally goes to the best horse in the 1m2f division, but doesn't theClassic result prove that she isn't that horse? Or was this a blip in an otherwise brilliant season?

Goldikova

Great show of longevity to cross continents and win an end-of-season championship race three years running.

Could finish only third on her fourth attempt at the Mile, though she did fare best of those who raced up with the pace, with the first and second coming from the rear.

Had she won the Mile she would have had a real shot at the HOTY title in this open year, but defeat means she has not won at all in the States this year so she is highly unlikely to follow in Zenyatta's hoofprints by winning the Eclipse Award after a farewell defeat.

The Factor

Highly talented colt who was on fire early in the year, but bombed out in his last two starts.

His six-and-a-quarter length win over Caleb's Posse and Archarcharch in the Rebel Stakes is starting to look really good and he was equally impressive on the Polytrack at Del Mar on his return from injury.

Even if excuses can be made for his recent defeats he was already hard sell for HOTY before the Breeders' Cup and finishing eighth of nine in the Dirt Mile hardly helped his cause.

On his day he might be the best of this smart group of three-year-olds (the others being Uncle Mo and Caleb's Posse) but he hasn't yet proved that beyond doubt – and Saturday was not his day.

Uncle Mo

Somewhat surprising to look back on Uncle Mo's record in graded races this season and see that he won just one from four attempts.

That was a Grade 2 and, although it was admirable for him to return with any sort of win after his illness, it simply can't be enough for the title.

Some think he might have won the Dirt Mile over the shorter trip, although his gallop reports were far from glowing last week and with Caleb's Posse pretty impressive in that race, it's a hard argument to make.

Tizway

Third in the NTRA poll before this weekend and with poll-leaders Havre De Grace and Flat Out defeated in the Classic surely his chances just improved?

Better than ever this year and convincing winner of two Grade 1s, including a three-length victory over Flat Out, which made him the leading older miler in the country.

Had been fancied in the betting for the Classic, but injured before getting chance to prove he was just as effective over 1m2f.

Only one run since May. Shame he got injured.

Acclamation

One of three horses who managed to win three Grade 1s in America this year. He also won two Grade 2s, which completed a sequence of five straight wins before injury curtailed his season.

He won G1s on turf and Polytrack and ranks as the leading US-based turf performer on RPRs with a mark of 125.

There is no one standout success whichmakes him an obvious Horse of the Year, but all of these contenders to the crown have some negative on their record. It's just a case of weighing it all up.

Rapid Redux

Not a top class performer, but with the assistance of clever race-planning he has managed to win 19-races in a row, matching the modern-day US record achieved by Zenyatta and Peppers Pride.

One of the NTRA voters selected him as his number one choice in the HOTY poll last week. That vote probably still stands and after an inconclusive Breeders' Cup perhaps he might get some company.

My Miss Aurelia

Set to finish the year as champion juvenile filly with a four-from-four winning record. Her wins included a Grade 2, the Grade 1 Frizzette and the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

She's a dominant, clear-cut champion within her division, but is the division important enough to grant her the outright title?

She was co-18th on the NTRA poll going into the Breeders' Cup and she should certainly build on that. The question is: by how much?

Conclusion

You can probably rule out The Factor, Uncle Mo and Goldikova from the above list, but any of the other seven could win it.

Indeed, so might any number of others, with horse like Cape Blanco, Royal Delta, Animal Kingdom, Amazombie, Hansen or Union Rags all worthy of consideration in such an open year.

Flat Out's trainer Scooter Dickey told the DRF he doesn't think there is a Horse of the Year.

I think there are a couple of very worthy divisional champions in the above list, like Acclamation and My Miss Aurelia, but they just happen to be champions of less appealing divisions.

Maybe this year those divisions will get a shot at the outright title or maybe Havre De Grace will cling onto her lead after connections took the brave route.

Maybe I'll stick to the brief for once.

The best performance of last week came, unsurprisingly, in Australia, where Black Caviar racked up win number 16 in the easiest of fashion with an RPR of 129+.

There was also a strong performance from Americain (127), who now ranks as the best stayer of 2011 after finishing a close fourth under top weight in the Melbourne Cup.

Overall World Top Ten

	Name (country trained)	Race	Rating
1	Frankel (GB)	QEII Stakes	139T
2	Black Caviar (Aus)	Newmarket Hcap	133T
3	Canford Cliffs (GB)	Queen Anne	130T
	Rewilding (GB)	Prince Of Wales's	130T
	Cirrus Des Aigles (FR)	Champion Stakes	130T
6	Dream Ahead (GB)	Prix de la Foret	129T
	Excelebration (GB)	QEII Stakes	129T
	So You Think (Ire)	Eclipse	129T
	The Factor (US)	Pat O'Brien	129A
10	Danedream (Ger)	Arc	128T
	Workforce (GB)	Eclipse	128T

Top Turf Performers

	Name (country trained)	Race	Rating
1	Frankel (GB)	QEII Stakes	139
2	Black Caviar (Aus)	Newmarket Hcap	133
3	Canford Cliffs (GB)	Queen Anne	130
	Rewilding (GB)	Prince Of Wales's	130
	Cirrus Des Aigles (FR)	Champion Stakes	130
6	Dream Ahead (GB)	Prix de la Foret	129
	Excelebration (GB)	QEII Stakes	129
	So You Think (Ire)	Eclipse	129
10	Workforce (GB)	Eclipse	128
	Danedream (Ger)	Arc	128

Top Dirt Performers

	Name (country trained)	Race	Rating
1	Uncle Mo (US)	Kelso Hcap	127
	Caleb's Posse (US)	BC Dirt Mile	127
	The Factor (US)	Rebel Stakes	127
2	Animal Kingdom (US)	Kentucky Derby	126
	Drosselmeyer (US)	BC Classic	126
3	Big Drama (US)	Mr Prospector Stakes	125
	Flat Out (US)	Jockey Club Gold Cup	125
	Havre De Grace (US)	Beldame	125
	Tizway (US)	Whitney Hcap	125
7	Coil (US)	Goodwood	123
	Game On Dude (US)	Goodwood	123
	Royal Delta (US)	BC Ladies' Classic	123
	Trappe Shot (US)	True North Hcap	123
	Smart Falcon (Jap)	Teio Sho	123

Top AW Performers

	Name (country trained)	Race	Rating
1	The Factor (US)	Pat O'Brien	129
2	Smiling Tiger (US)	Triple Bend Hcap	126
	Rocket Man (Sing)	Golden Shaheen	126
4	Acclamation (US)	Pacific Classic	125
	Twirling Candy (US)	Hollywood Gold Cup	125
6	Twice Over (GB)	Al Maktoum Challenge R3	123
7	Game On Dude (US)	Hollywood Gold Cup	122
	Sidney's Candy (US)	Mervyn Leroy Hcap	122
9	Crown Of Thorns (US)	Mervyn Leroy/Pat O'Brien	121
	Euroears (US)	Bing Crosby	121