Frankel: short price to return to the Newmarket winners' enclosure in May

  PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)  

Frankel rated best juvenile of 21st century

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the best performances of last week according to Racing Post Ratings

Most had the Dewhurst pegged as a two- or three-horse race, but those with faith in Henry Cecil had it narrowed down to one.

With Cecil slapping the 'best since Wollow' tag on Frankel it was unsurprising that he was sent off a short price on Saturday, but the fact he was odds-on when up against an unbeaten nine-length Group 1 winner shows precisely the esteem in which the trainer's opinion is held.

On Saturday, Frankel matched Wollow in going four from four as a juvenile and the similarities don't end there, as both rounded their campaigns with a Group 2 and a Dewhurst and both went into the winter as favourites for the Classics.

Wollow went on to further success in his three-year-old season, bagging the Greenham, 2,000 Guineas, Eclipse, Sussex and International Stakes and it is how Frankel fares next year that will truly define his career. At a best price of 5-4 for the Guineas and 5-1 for the Derby, expectations are clearly high.

Last year World Class reasoned that punters should steer well clear of the 3-1 about St Nicholas Abbey for the 2,000 Guineas, highlighting, amongst other reasons, the abysmal record of winter favourites in the Guineas.

With St Nicholas Abbey biting the dust in sixth this year, the statistics show it is an increasingly risky business following the ante-post favourite for the opening Classic.

In the last 11 years, George Washington is the only one to go on and win at Newmarket and he was as low as 2-1 in October, therefore adding precious little to the overriding level stakes loss.

Now it is Frankel's turn to face the jinx and, even though at 5-4 he is a much shorter price than St Nicholas Abbey was at this stage, he simply looks a much more likely winner.

Unlike with StNicholas Abbey there are no realistic concerns other than the 'winter favourite' statistic. There are no worries about trip, consistency, class, ground or course and if he turns up without any major setbacks he will likely be odds-on in spring.

Since there is no return on your investment for seven months, an even-money bet makes little appeal, particularly when you consider the likes of Teofilo and New Approach failed to land the ante-post money, but if he gets there in one piece there won't be many wanting to lay him.

The Derby is a different matter. Cecil indicated he will be looking to campaign the son of Galileo over trips from a mile to 1m2f, since his dam was pure speed.

There are some indications on his dam's side that he may get further, and he managed to win over 1m in the August of his two-year-old season, but the Derby is not his main aim at present and Cecil thinks he may not stay.

Incidentally, despite his otherwise spectacular season, Wollow finished only fifth in the 1976 Derby.

The Racing Post and RPRs were not around in 1975 when Wollow was around, but compared to the top two-year-olds who have come since thenFrankel rates up with the very best.

He achieved an RPR of 127+ for his Dewhurst success, which puts him in co-third on the all-time juvenile list alongside Xaar, Seattle Rhyme and Rainbow Corner - behind Arazi (134) and Celtic Swing (133).

Since all of those came in the 90s, Frankel rates as the best European juvenile in the 21st century.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Frankel 127+

Henry Cecil (GB)

Dewhurst Stakes, Newmarket, 7f, 16 Oct

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