Fantastic Frankel equals highest RPR in history

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

SO just how good is Frankel?

On Saturday he equalled Dubai Millennium as the highest rated horse in RPR history with a mark of 139+ for his Queen Elizabeth II Stakes romp.

That figure has been the benchmark since 2000 when the Godolphin colt won the Dubai World Cup by six lengths and then the Prince Of Wales's Stakes by eight.

He was a remarkable horse who showed outstanding ability on dirt and turf alike, winning nine of his ten races from 1m to 1m2f with his sole defeat coming in the 1999 Derby.

The average winning distance of his nine victories was over five lengths, with an average of 5.6 lengths over his four Group 1 successes.

Frankel's average winning distance is currently 4.5 lengths with a Group 1 average of 3.6 lengths across his five top-level wins.

Judged on his peak performance Frankel has a repeatability (lengthof time before/since another horse is capable of matching the achievement) of around 10 years, but he's got another whole season to build on that and he already ranks even higher on other repeatability measures.

He is, for instance, the first horse since Nijinsky (1969-70) to be completely dominant over his first two seasons, which gives him a repeatability of 40 years.

Nijinsky managed to lose a couple of races at the end of his three-year-old season, finishing second in the Arc and Champion Stakes after a bout of ringworm, while Frankel has remained unbeaten in two seasons.

Nijinsky however showed more flexibility than Frankel, winning over sprint trips at two and bagging the triple crown at three.

No two horses are directly comparable, but when you have to go back to Nijinsky for parallels of dominance over two seasons and to Dubai Millennium to match his ability, then we're clearly getting into blue moon territory.

His four-length win over Excelebration in the QEII on Saturday was the same margin he had over Marco Botti's colt in the Greenham at Newbury on their first start of the year.

Both horses have improved since then, winning three races each in the interim, and at Ascot the runner-up managed to finish three-and-a-half lengths clear of Prix Jacques le Marois winner Immortal Verse.

Frankel is still running off weight-for-age at the moment (3lb on Saturday), although given that three-year-olds filled the first four places it had little bearing on this result.

Next year he will answer all the remaining questions -he will run without weight for age, he will test his stamina at 1m2f and he will attempt to go unbeaten across three seasons.

He has never been beaten and has never looked like being beaten. If he continues to dominate next year superlatives will not do him justice.

It was his devastating performance in the QEII which helped make the inaugural Champions Day a success, but the real test for the Ascot showpiece will come when the original Qipco sponsorship deal expires in 2013.

The increased prize-money and perhaps the occasion helped to attract stronger and deeper fields this year to the key events of the Champion Stakes, QEII and the Sprint (formerly the Diadem).

That success was aided in part by the spectacular Frankel, who may again headline the 2012 Champions Day, but if the Champions series fails to secure such a mammoth sponsorship deal for 2013 and beyond, there is a chance the standards will slip.

When the concept of a British championship was floated many believed that, along with the Arc and the Breeders' Cup, there would be too many big end-of-season meetings.

The results on Saturday show that there is room for all parties. Indeed, the new event might even complement the French and US meetings by helping to create an end-of-season culture, meaning the best horses are all trained to peak at the same time.

The Champions Day raceswere carefully selected so that there is very little crossover with the Breeders' Cup. This was possible because of the different racing surfaces in Europe and America.

If you look at the teams Europe has sent over for the Breeders' Cup they have always done well on turf, but their only winners on conventional dirt in the last ten years (Wilko and Johannesburg) were both bred in America.

In the turf races Europe has been responsible for the winners of five Filly and Mare Turfs, five Miles and eight Turfs in the last ten years.

On top of that a further three US-trained winners of the Filly and Mare Turf and one winner of the Mile started their racing careers east of the Atlantic.

So there was room for Europe to create it's own end-of-season championships on the grass - and turf events over 6f, 1m2f and 2m were races Europe had been crying out for and ones which should have very little impact on the Breeders' Cup.

As a 1m turf race, the QEII does clash with the Breeders' Cup Mile, but Europe needs its own mile finale and one race should not cause the collapse of one meeting or the other.

It's all about which races are the meat and which the stuffing. The Breeders' Cup relies on the Classic (dirt), the Turf, the Sprint (dirt) and the Juvenile (dirt).

Champions Day will be more reliant on the Champion Stakes, QEII and their own turf Sprint, while the Arc meeting is all about the Arc.

The Champion Stakes is the race which may slip back in line with previous averages if the purse drops, but there is definitely a place for races like the Sprint and the Long Distance Cup even with reduced prize-money - although they will need to secure Group 1 status before the funding drops (if it drops).

This year the standards of the races were up. Fame And Glory won the Long Distance Cup (formerly the Jockey Club Cup) with an RPR of 114, which is par for the race, but the fact they managed to attract the winners of the Goodwood Cup and the Ascot Gold Cup was an achievement for a Group 3 event.

The Fillies' and Mares' Stakes (formerly the Pride Stakes) was also on a par with recent renewals - Dancing Rain running to 118 - but the other races were all up judged on ten-year averages.

Deacon Blues posted an RPR of 123 when winning the Sprint, which is higher than any winner of the Diadem in the last ten years.

In the Champion Stakes, Cirrus Des Aigles rated above the ten-year average of 125 with an RPR of 129. There was plenty of depth to that race, with So You Think (127) and Snow Fairy (123) posting the best second and third place RPRs for the last ten years.

Frankel obviously blitzed the ten-year average for the QEII by posting a mark of 139+, but again the placed horses showed what a great depth there was at the meeting, with the clear runner-up Excelebration posting the best second-placed effort for the last ten years with an RPR of 129.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Frankel 139+ Sir Henry Cecil (GB) (Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, Ascot, 1m, October 15)

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