Buena Vista (2): needed to run to a RPR of just 122 to land the Japan Cup

  PICTURE: Masakazu Takahashi  

Danedream comes out on top despite Japan sixth

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

WARNING: This text contains imagery of Martin Pipe playing an accordion. Reader discretion is advised.

DANEDREAM could finish only sixth in the Japan Cup, but she remains the highest-rated horse coming out of Sunday's feature thanks to her record-breaking Arc win.

The German mare ran to an RPR of 128 in the Arc, while Buena Vista needed to run to just 122 to see off Tosen Jordan (126) in the Japan Cup - in the process beating Danedream by 3½ lengths.

That scenario seems counter-intuitive, but there is an explanation. If you look at the results of the Arc and the Japan Cup down theyears the French race often produces the highest-rated winner.

Reasons include the overall quality and the position of these races both geographically and in the global calendar, but the different racing styles are also a factor.

The cause of this starts with Martin Pipe and the beginning of end-to-end racing in Britain, coupled with the longer run-ins in Europe, but the effect can be seen in the cumulative beaten distances in each race.

This year there was just six lengths covering the first 12 in the Japan Cup, while Danedream beat 12th-placed Workforce by 14½ lengths in the Arc.

Last year it was a similar story. Six lengths covered the first 12 in Japan, while Workforce beat the 12th by 17-lengths in France.

It would be impossible to argue that the Arc lacked the depth of the Japan Cup, but it would be fair to consider the going (often soft in France, firm in Japan) as a part contributor to this difference in cumulative distances. The biggest factor though is how the races are run.

Handicapping is, at its most basic level, a balance of weights and beaten distances. So the bigger the distances the bigger the ratings.

An overused and slightly misleading concept of handicapping is how far the winner beat the second, but more often than not there are 'anchors' to the form further down the field. And when you compress the field, you compress the distance between the anchor and the winner.

If you double the distance between the anchor and the winner, as is often the case between the Arc and Japan Cup, you are doubling the superiority of the winner over the exposed rival.

It may help to think of the finish of each race as an accordion. The sooner they begin to really race for the finish, the further outstretched the distance between each individual becomes.

End-to-end racing means they start to race at the beginning while a slow-fast pace means they start, more often than not, at the turn for home.

If they don't start 'racing' soon enough you sometimes get a false result, where the accordion bellows are so compressed they don't even finish in the correct order of superiority.

This was to some extent true on Sunday, with Danedream undoubtedly a better horse than her position suggests, although there is also little doubt thatBuena Vista was the best horse on the day.

In last year's Japan Cup, when Buena Vista was again first past the post before being controversially disqualified, the limiters to the form included European horses like Joshua Tree and Dandino, who were way down the pecking order in tenth and eleventh (in the second half of the field/accordion) but weren't beaten all that far.

This year one of the anchors to the form was fifth-placed Win Variation (Orfevre's understudy in the Japanese three-year-old division), who was given a ride reminiscent of Mirco Demuro's on Victoire Pisa in the Dubai World Cup, by Katsumi Ando.

Win Variation raced alongside Danedream right at the back of the field in the early stages but drew a roar from the crowd when he moved up to second in mid-race.

The first five were all positioned to strike turning for home: Tosen Jordan and Trailblazer had been up there all along, Buena Vista and Jaguar Mail sped up the inside rail and Win Variation joined the van after Ando recognised he needed to be on the pace.

To The Glory raced prominently before fading to eleventh, but he still ran in line with recent efforts with an RPR of 117, tying in with this interpretation of the form.

Danedream could have done with creeping closer before the home turn and ran with credit to plug on for sixth with an RPR of 118+. Arc limiter Shareta finished just a place behind her in seventh, staying on as if she'll get further next year.

Unless a Martin Pipe-type revolutionises racing in slow-fast countries like Japan, these tight finishes and corresponding lower ratingswill continue to be the norm.

Pipe made it impossible to ignore the pacemaker in British jumps racing by sending his horses off in front and repeatedly winning. A decent early gallop was the step rival trainers had to take to stop Pipe continually winning.

British racing now requires a sustained-effort at all levels of racing on both Flat and jumps and in championship events they almost always go end-to-end.

Demuro came up with one novel way of altering the outcome of slow-fast races in Dubai and perhaps his patented mid-race move will be the next evolutionary step on the road to end-to-end racing.

Sustained effort (the extreme of which is end-to-end) is harder on the horses,meaning they need bigger spacing between races, but the results create a better depiction of the superiority between the individuals involved. This allows the winners to show more precisely just how good they are.

End-to-end does haveit's drawbacks and perhaps connections outside Britain will not want to adapt to a system which means horses finish on empty every time they visit the track.

But where the slow-fast system is dominant there will always be opportunities for bright sparks like Pipe, Demuro and Ando to play the accordion to their own tune.

In America, Wise Dan earned the highest dirt rating of the year for his win in the Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs on Friday.

It's been a very open year at the top Stateside and this late season success may put him in with a outside shot at the Horse of the Year title.

He posted an RPR of 129+ for his three-and-three-quarter length success over Mission Impazible with Flat Out back in third. That effort ranks him alongside The Factor at the top of the US list for 2011.

This Grade 1 success means he has won graded stakes on turf, dirt and Polytrack this year. He is set to return as a five-year-old and even if he doesn't take Horse of the Year this time, he currently looks the hottest US prospect for 2012.

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