Black Caviar: could easily arrive in Europe unbeaten in 21 races next year

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Caviar looks to Europeas home challenge fades

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Black Caviar doesn't have much left to beat in Australia but Peter Moody has outlined a European campaign which may test the Aussie star next year.

With connections of Sepoy (127) unwilling to run him against the unbeaten mare this season and Hay List (127) out until next year, the remainder of 2011 should be as easy for Black Caviar as her last two starts have been.

Everybody knows the best sprint talent comes from down under and that she is unlikely to face a tougher opponent than Hay List in Europe, but there are other barriers to overcome when you ship halfway round the world.

With her remaining Australian campaign set to include the Patinack (Nov 5), Winterbottom (Nov 19), Australia (Jan 27), Orr (Feb 11), Futurity (Feb 25) and the T J Smith (Apr 14), she could ship over for Royal Ascot unbeaten in 21 starts.

Historical comparisons of the great mare are difficult, given that it is only really since Choisir came to Royal Ascot in 2003 that the world realised the Aussies produced the best sprinters on the planet.

Racing has become a lot more global since then and we've had plenty of opportunity to assess the collateral form between Australia and the rest of the world.

Since 2003 we have had Royal Ascot winners like Takeover Target,Scenic Blast, Miss Andretti and Starspangledbanner and Aussie-breds who ruled the world from Hong Kong like Sacred Kingdom, Absolute Champion and Silent Witness.

What we do know is that since racing went global, Black Caviar is the best sprinter that the best sprinting nation has produced.

Given their recent record she didn't need to leave her home nation to prove that, but travelling is on the agenda next year and Moody has suggested that if she remains unbeaten through to April she may have a prolonged stay in Europe.

Aussies have had great success at Royal Ascot in the past, but because Black Caviar ain't your average Aussie, Moody has put forward a campaign which would surpass that of previous tourists to Europe.

Moody told the Racing Post he was considering the Golden Jubilee, July Cup and Prix de la Foret in 2012 - the easy option would have been King's Stand and straight back home.

She is a superiorindividual, so she should be tested, but the events Moody has highlighted have proved tricky for Australian raiders in the past and they haven't always gone as the form book would suggest.

In 2003 Choisirlanded both the King's Stand and Golden Jubilee for Australia but since then the sprinting giants have fared a lot better in the shorter of the Royal Ascot sprints.

In the King's Stand they have had three winners and three placers in the last six renewals, while in the Golden Jubilee Australians have failed to win in eight attempts since Choisir, although ex-Aussie Starspangledbanner did win for Aidan O'Brien in 2010.

Those Aussies beaten in the Golden Jubilee include Miss Andretti (2007), Takeover Target (2006, 2007, 2008) and the Peter Moody-trained Magnus (2007).

Admittedly that trio all ran in the King's Stand Stakes the same year, which might have had an impact on their performances. Let's not forget Black Caviar is a far better horse than the previous Golden Jubilee challengers, but the 6f feature can still be a funny race to predict.

This year the first two home were sent off at 25-1 and neither have before, during or since rated in the 120s on RPRs.

In 2009 Ascot-specialist Art Connoisseur won at 20-1 (33-1 shot in third, Sacred Kingdom fifth) and he was beaten out of sight in all five of his other starts that year. More huge-priced horsesboth won and made the frame in 2008 and 2006 when Takeover Target was beaten.

Perhaps these strange results suggest the 6f at Ascot is an unusual test, or perhaps it suggests that if the Aussies of the past had bypassed the King's Stand they might have had an open goal in the 6f race. Maybe the Aussies are due a winner.

One thing is for sure, if the form of next year's race is as weak as recent renewals, Black Caviar at her best would absolutely demolish them.

The average winning RPR of the last five years is 122. When you add-in the fillies allowance it would give her a cushion of 14lb, which equates to about four-and-a-half lengths.

Because it is later in the calendar, and Australians have usually been on the go since January, the July Cup has often proved a trickier assignment than Royal Ascot.

This year Star Witness could finish only tenth after placing in both the major sprints at Ascot. Starspangledbanner again bucked the trend for Aidan O'Brien by winning the July Cup in 2010, but in the years before that horses like Exceed And Excel, Takeover Target, Scenic Blast and Bentley Biscuit all failed to finish better than seventh.

Again, in Black Caviar we are talking not just about an Aussie but a super-Aussie, so perhaps history is not the best guide, but by that stage of the season, and having travelled 10,000 miles, there's a chance she may not be at her very best.

The Prix de la Foret would be an entirely different test again. A French seven furlongs may not test her stamina as much as a race over that trip in Britain might (due to racing styles: slow-fast versus sustained-effort), but your talking about getting even deeper into the season for that race (October) and the ground could be very soft.

Her European campaign will not be so much about testing her against better horses, but against a range of different race styles and conditions - and conditions can beat a horse just as easily as another horse.

The great mare stole the show on Cox Plate day at Moonee Valley on Saturday in what was just a Group 2 event with practically no opposition (three, overmatched).

Her attendant fans didn't care about the opposition. Why would they? The magic of Black Caviar is that she can turn up against anything and win. They were there to be part of the Black Caviar experience, to witness one of her magnificent unbroken sequence of victories.

The same was true of Zenyatta when she ran against her gal pals in the older mares division in America. She was never going to get beaten in one of those hotch-potch group races, but people flocked to see her dance before the races and to win on the line.

Black Caviar has picked up that mantle now and, perhaps even more so than Frankel, she will carry the crowd to wherever Moody decides to race her.

After winning the 2010 Schweppes Stakes, Black Caviar jumped to the top of the world sprint rankings (as reported in World Class 25 Oct 2010) and since then the mare has won a further eight races, every time producing an RPR of 129 or better.

The last turf sprinter to post an RPR of 129 was Sacred Kingdom back in 2007, and the great mare has now achieved that figure - or higher - on nine consecutive starts.

On Saturday she pulled six-lengths clear of the small field to register a mark of 130+, which means she has now broken Dayjur's RPR record for number of performances worth 130 or more.

She now has six, which makes her the most prolific elite-level (130+) performer in RPR history.

Another budding global star was in winning action at Kyoto on Sunday, as Orfevre landed the Japanese triple crown with an easy success in the Kikuka Sho over 1m7f.

The striking chestnut is the clear best three-year-old in the country and he looked as good as ever when kicking clear of the 18-runner field to score by an eased down two-and-a-half lengths.

He posted a mark of 125+ for this success, but should be capable of better when chucked in against his elders or some top international competition.

Win Variation highlighted the lack of depth in the Japan three-year-old division by finishing second to Orfevre for the third time in as many starts.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Black Caviar 130+ Peter Moody (Aus) (Schweppes Stakes, Moonee Valley, 6f, Oct 22)

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