Nathaniel (left) comes out on top as Workforce drifts towards the stands

  PICTURE: Edward Whitaker (racingpost.com/photos)  

Little substance to dramatic King George

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

THE King George was billedas the next Grundy versus Bustino, but the result was one of the weakest for years.

The Ascot feature started with a twist when the pacemaker Debussy refused to make pace and it ended with a bitter blow when Rewilding was fatally injured.

Throw in Workforce's wandering detour towards the stands and you're left with precious little substance to a race which normally highlights the British summer season. Race of the century it was not.

Instead of Grundy and Bustino we ended up with Nathaniel versus St Nicholas Abbey - and even that was not a straight forward match, since they went very slow early and Nathaniel got first run on the Ballydoylite.

St Nicholas Abbey is a tricky character to pin down precisely. Although he's a Group 1 winner, he arrived without any true championship level form and, after beating only the 'pacemaker', he left with none.

His wins this season came in small field races, which tested his stamina. The Coronation Cup was muddling and there remains a question mark over whether Midday went too soon - although even if she ran her race, she hardly boosted the form at the Curragh next time out.

On RPRs St Nicholas Abbey has a peak mark of 125 and he ran below that level on Saturday (120), having given the winner four lengths turning in. To his credit, he maintained that margin to the line.

The winning time on Saturday was only slightly quicker than the0-85 handicap won by Aiken, which supports the theory that Nathaniel was best placed up front.

The winner posted an RPR of 126, 4lb below the ten-year average for the race (130), which ranks among the best in the world up with the Arc(130.3) and Breeders' Cup Classic (129.4).

There is obviously very little depth to the form, with Workforce trying his best not to run forwards, and Nathaniel ranks alongside Hurricane Run as the lowest rated winner of the last decade.

That was not the winner's fault, however. He did everything asked of him and came out on top. It is just hard to rate him any higher on what he achieved on Saturday in what turned into a non-event.

Nathaniel's previous win in the King Edward VII Stakes had already been working out along similar lines to this 126-figure, with the fourth and fifth coming out and improving 6lb and 8lb when finishing first and second in a big handicap at Newmarket.

King Edward runner-up Fiorente could yet give that form a further boost at Glorious Goodwood on Tuesday when he will go off favourite for the Gordon Stakes.

Nathaniel is bred to be a top class racehorse and stallion, being by Galileo and out of Musidora winner Magnificient Style and he looks a reliable, progressive horse capable of winning further Group 1s.

However, connections may want to train their attention away from the Arc if they are to avoid the common curse of recent King George winners. Eight of the last ten failed to repeat their Ascot form elsewhere, while seven of the last ten failed to ever win again.

The Prix Niel will be a tough assignment with Fabresending both of his leading hopes there. Even though Nathaniel holds the higher rating at present, Pour Moi (123+) and Meandre (124+) are both open to further improvement and both possess an eye-watering turn of foot, which makes Nathaniel's job of winning a tricky one (tactically).

The Arc itself is shaping as being one of the strongest races of the year, so again it will be a tough ask for the King George winner, who becomes the latest in a long line of Group 1 winners to have earmarked a trip to Longchamp in October.

It may be an assignment he is up to, but King George-Arc winners are surprisingly rare and Conduit, Duke Of Marmalade, Montjeu, Daylami and Pentire have all come up short in recent years, during which time Dylan Thomas was the only horse to pull off the double in the same year.

Workforce was the highest rated horse going into the King George and he remains the highest rated horse coming out, but the way he drifted across the track did not inspire confidence as he bids to become only the second horse since Ribot to land two Arcs.

We forgave his Dante defeat after the bit slipped through his mouth and we forgave last year's dismal King George effort, after whichSir Michael Stoute guessed that he may have trained him too hard.

The latest excuse was that he returned with a cut on his leg, but we're getting to the stage now when we must consider whether all of these excuses are complete and valid.

After Saturday's display, Workforce's strike rate dropped to 50 per cent (four wins from eight starts), which simply does not tally with his ability.

Perhaps he can't handle Ascot and perhaps we can put the Dante down to a combination of inexperience and the 'bit incident'. Perhaps he is just plain unlucky or perhaps there are other causes for his occasional flat performance.

But as a punter the raw data has to overcome the rationalisations at some stage and after three below-par efforts in eight starts you would be brave to put maximum faith in him next time.

On Saturday he looked more intent on going sideways than forwards and it is not simply a case of Pythagoras to work out whether or not he would have won.

He chose not to go forward, against the leanings, steerings and left-handed whip use from Ryan Moore. It may have been caused by the pain from his cut or by some other factor, but it just leaves a niggling question mark over his resolve.

His ability is not in doubt - he is a record breaking Derby-Arc winner who made a great start to the season from an impossible position at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard and backed that up inthe Eclipse. But his increasingly patchy record and latest wild drift across the track are not the qualities one expects from a great racehorse.

The repeatability (likely length of time before or since another horse matches the achievement) of two Arc wins is around 30 years and Workforce is a general 6-1 chance to achieve that feat.

Judged on his overall record he looks more likely to retire with his current repeatability of four years (Derby and Arc winner) than to be considered a once in 30 years phenomenon.

With his next intended starts in the (generally weak) Prix Foy and the (incredibly strong) Arc, he could be set to retire with that 50 per cent record intact.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Nathaniel 126 John Gosden (GB) (King George, Ascot, 1m4f, July 23)

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