Harbinger: currently leads the world by a whopping 5lb from Quality Road

  PICTURE: Edward Whitaker/racingpostpix.com  

Harbinger on top of the world after Ascot romp

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the best performances of last week according to Racing Post Ratings

HARBINGER produced an epic display in the King George, propelling himself clearly into the world number one spot, but after such an unbelievable performance the pertinent question is: will he ever back it up?

It is not often that a spare ride results in a world leader, but that was the fortune bestowed on Olivier Peslier on Saturday, as his mount charged clear for an impressive 11-length success over two Derby winners, securing a record time, a record winning margin and a huge RPR of 135.

But, while the son of Dansili has looked incredibly progressive so far this season, there is a precedent to suggest that he has now peaked and this subject should be of paramount interest to those looking to take short prices about Sir Michael Stoute's charge for the Arc.

It would not be the first time a horse has peaked for the King George and never repeated the feat, as a look back at recent winners will prove.

And to broaden the matter further, it would not be the first time a horse has peaked in summer and had his form trail off by mid-autumn.

Anyone who follows racing day to day knows that almost every horse has a peak two or three months every season, and most are susceptible to an abrupt change (for better or worse) in their track performances around September when the weather cools.

This, and other factors, help to contribute to the now common occurrence of horses winning the King George in breathtaking style before disappointing in the Arc, something which Stoute will be desperately trying to avoid with his new world leader.

Six of the last nine King George winners never won again, while ten of the last 14 failed to ever repeat to the same level they achieved when winning the 1m4f summer showpiece.

Doyen: proved an Ascot specialist

  PICTURE: Martin Lynch  

The reasons the King George may be particularly partial to subsequent underperformance include the fact that many horses are trained to peak for that race, while the European pattern calendar may also take some of the blame, as there is no obvious middle-distance target between Ascot and Longchamp, which is two-and-a-half months later.

Ascot's unique nature may also have something to do with it, as the royal venue has gathered its fair share of course specialists down the years, including Doyen, who posted RPRs of 129 and 131 in the Hardwicke and King George in the hot summer of 2004, but failed to run above 121 on any start either before or since.

Swain is another example of a horse who saved his best for Ascot in summer, posting RPRs of 133 and 131 for his King George victories, but running consistently around the mid-120s for the rest of his career.

Such precedence may suggest that the King George winners tend to be overrated, but the form always stands up (something which will probably be true of Saturday's winner) and the inclination is to go with the 'autumn regression' theory.

This is not to belittle what Harbinger achieved on the weekend – it was simply stunning – but rather to temper end-of-season expectations to more realistic levels.

If the Arc was in three weeks time, at Ascot, then even-money would be a fair price for a Harbinger victory – even if Fame And Glory and the French boys turned up – but the race is not in three weeks time and, importantly, it is not at Ascot. 

Using Doyen as aprime example, it might just be that Harbinger loves Ascot and is in the form of his life, but neither of those elements will help him in the Arc in October, just as it has not helped many previous King George winners who finished out of the frame in France (Conduit, Duke Of Marmalade, Montjeu, Daylami, Pentire).

Swain: saved his best for Ascot too

  PICTURE: Edward Whitaker/RacingPostPix.com 

Having posted a higher RPR than any of his predecessors, he at least starts his potential decline from a higher peak, offering hope that he may be one of the rare occurrences of a horse able to maintain his advantage through to October – even if he drops to a level of, say, 128, it may still be enough to win the Arc.

But, for a colt who has been on the go since April, the chances are that the bookies will pocket as much off his hype as they did off his stablemate Workforce on the weekend.

The problem in both cases is that a performance figure is not a promise that a horse will ever repeat a certain level. It is merely an indication of what the horse achieved under a specific set of circumstances.

When you change the time of year, the track, the way the race is run, the current form of the horse/yard/jockey and the going, you drastically change what the horse is capable of.

Some horses, like Sea The Stars, are not affected by the many variables, and it is that flexibility and consistency which really defined his legacy – as opposed to judging him on one stand out performance.

In Harbinger's case, so far, the opposite is true – he has posted two stellar performances over the same course and distance one month apart and he is being judged on his peak performance.
His test will come when the variables change and there is absolutely no guarantee he will repeat his magnificent King George romp – indeed it is highly unlikely. How can he possibly follow that?

If this turns out to be an unrepeated, course-specialist performance, his win could be scaled back to around the 133/4 mark, while if he were to follow it up and the form were to receive boosts elsewhere, the best possible view (taking a straight line through the second and fourth) could see this go as high as 140.

This was the first top-level clash of the generations this season, thus making the form hard to pin down precisely, but in dispatching the Epsom and Irish Derby winners with such ease, and by pulling so far clear in such a fast time, this was clearly the performance of a legitimate world leader.

Whatever happens to the form, this display was so special it is likely to see him top the world standings at the end of the year.
It can not be stressed enough, however, that this rating is not a guarantee of future success and it will be an awful lot harder than a simple case of 'repeat will suffice' for Harbinger when and if he rocks up against the French sophomores in the Arc.

Harbinger currently leads the world by a whopping 5lb from dirt leader Quality Road (130) on RPRs.

TOP OF THE CLASS: Harbinger 135

Trainer: Sir Michael Stoute (GB)

King George, Ascot, 1m4f, July 24

D = dirt, A = all-weather, T = turf