Figures suggest Camelot may not be a good thing

WORLD CLASS: an analysis of the international scene according to Racing Post Ratings

Camelot is odds-on for the Derby and widely fancied to become the first Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970, but the ratings tell a different story.

As an unbeaten Guineas winner, ratings alone cannot deny Camelot's followers their lofty dreams, but they don't really support his claims either.

The RPRs at this early stage of the season tell us that Camelot is narrowly the best of a muchness. There is every chance he can improve when stepped up in trip, or even win the Derby without improving a great deal.

But when odds and ratings differ so markedly it's worth taking a closer look at what exactly he has achieved and what he might be capable of.

This is one of those years when the outstanding European three-year-old colt is taking his time rising to the top. On the ratings there is no outstanding sophomore. Yet.

Last season's juveniles struggled to throw up a champion and the same crop has again highlighted an unwillingness to show their aces this year. After the British, French and Irish Guineas nothing stands out.

Camelot's narrow win in the 2,000 Guineas makes him marginally the best of his generation as things stand with an RPR of 122, but that's a low benchmark for this time of year.

On Saturday his stablemate Power confirmed the low standard of the current crop by posting an RPR of just 118 for his Irish 2,000 Guineas success.

These low ratings are not an indication that the levels are wrong. They are an indication that there is not much between the best three-year-olds at present.

Over the last eight years we haven't had this problem. After the Guineas and Irish Guineas there was always a standout leader (Haafhd, Dubawi, George Washington, Cockney Rebel, Henrythenavigator, Sea The Stars, Canford Cliffs and Frankel).

The average RPR of these top-rated horses at this same stage in the season was over 126 and every one of them was rated higher than Camelot's 122.

There are extenuating circumstances this year, with the obscenely wet April possibly playing its part in disrupting preparations. Many of the leading contenders have also had setbacks and missed the Classics; the likes of Akeed Mofeed, Most Improved, Parish Hall and Harbour Watch.

Godolphin have also been quiet, with their best contenders all starting with a backward step (Mandaean, Mighty Ambition, Lyric Of Light, Discourse), but these low early ratings do not necessarily mean the class of 2012 is a 'bad crop'.

The last time we got this far into the season without a standout sophomore was in 2003, when Refuse To Bend and Indian Haven won the Guineas and Irish Guineas with RPRs of just 118.

Even that year turned out alright in the end, though, with the late-maturing Dalakhani and Alamshar coming out of the woodwork to beat their elders in the Arc and King George.

With the 2012 Guineas runners all proving to be of a similar standard, what we're looking for this year are: horses who have contested the Classics but who can step up a lot on what they have done; lightly raced progressive types who did not run in a Guineas; or one of those sidelined horses coming back and living up to the chat.

Camelot is still unbeaten, he's only run three times and, being by Montjeu, he may be able to draw out that speed over middle distances. He fits into the first category, in having the potential to rate higher.

On Saturday he runs into a rival from the second category: a lightly raced progressive. Bonfire has a similar profile to his breeding as Camelot, being by a stamina merchant and out of a miler.

Bonfire has already proved himself over further than Camelot, having won the Dante and he is a live danger to the Ballydoyle colt's Triple Crown hopes, sitting not far behind him on RPRs with a mark of 119 for his York success.

No horses from the third category (sidelined) are involved in Saturday's Derby, but they may come into play later in the season, with Akeed Mofeed looking a potential middle-distance threat to whoever comes out best in the Derby.

Camelot could win the Derby. He's odds-on to do so. He may not be a bet at the odds, but it's worth remembering that you don't have to be a great horse to win the race - the four winners between 2003 and 2006 failed to win again.

This renewal lacks depth and there is a chance that a repeat of his Guineas RPR of 122 may be enough for a Camelot success - Sir Percy and Kris Kin having won the Derby with RPRs of just 121.

It's also worth noting that the last time there was no standout three-year-old after the Guineas (in 2003) the two key follow-on races for the Classic colts (the St James's Palace Stakes and the Derby) were won with relatively low ratings by Zafeen (123) and Kris Kin (121).

So Camelot may well win the Derby, but it is further down the line that he may not quite live up to those sky-high expectations.

In 2003, the best horses did not come from the early melee of Guineas form. They graduated from different, non-British routes, winning the Prix du Jockey Club (Dhalakhani) and the Irish Derby (Alamshar).

It may take time but unless this really is a bad crop, there will be a couple of colts rated in the high-120s before the year is out. Even if Camelot wins the Derby, he may not end up being one of them - there is nothing stopping another three-year-old improving past him in time for the Arc.

Derby winners don't often win Arcs and Camelot's price of 4-1 for a Longchamp victory seems like the price he should be if he wins on Saturday, not the price he should be now.

Based on form in the book he is way too short. In the Guineas he beat French Fifteen by a neck in a time over two seconds slower than that which saw Homecoming Queen win the 1,000 Guineas the following day. The third, fourth and fifth from the 2,000 Guineas were all well beaten next time out.

There's an argument to be made that he is too short a price for the Derby, so he is clearly too short for the Arc.

The Triple Crown presents a further set of questions. Will he see out the trip at Doncaster? Will a stronger stayer improve past him? Will he even attempt the St Leger?

There is one question which overrides the rest, however. One which may be answered on Saturday: is Camelot part of this middling early contingent, or is he the outstanding European three-year-old?

Another Ballydoyle inmate, So You Think, posted the performance of the week, running pretty much to form with an RPR of 127 for his six-length success in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on Sunday. O'Brien has pinpointed two non-Frankel races as his next intended targets, which is probably for the best.

Another star from last season was in action in France on Sunday. Cirrus Des Aigles has never been a sprinter. He's a grinder. So it was no surprise to see him lose the sprint finish to the Prix d'Ispahan.

Olivier Peslier probably thought he was sitting pretty on the lead, since most other races on the card were won from the front, but Cirrus Des Aigles lacks a sharp change of gear. Golden Lilac has a bit more speed and that made the difference.

It isn't a serious piece of form. Two and a half lengths covered the first five home. Golden Lilac isn't better than Cirrus Des Aigles at his best and Cirrus Des Aigles at his best isn't a length better than No Risk At All.

Most bookmakers gave a level-headed response to the race by leaving the winner Golden Lilac's price unchanged for the Arc. She posted a marginal career best RPR of 117+. More to come? Probably, but still a way to go.

With Frankel, Black Caviar, Cirrus Des Aigles, Hay List, Orfevre, Wise Dan, Excelebration and So You Think all on the top list it is starting to take a similar shape to last year's.

The three-year-olds will have to go some to match the old boys this year.

TOP OF THE CLASS: So You Think 127 Aidan O'Brien (Ire) (Tattersalls Gold Cup, Curragh, 1m2f, 27 May)

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