GRAHAM WOODS

Weblog: Try lines - the rugby union review

Super Nations remains as tough as ever for punters

FEBRUARY is a great month to be a rugby fan. There's the promise of an exciting denouement to the season, with the Heineken Cup quarter finalists and LV Cup semi-finalists known, plus the various leagues more than halfway through and the top end of the table starting to take shape.

And of course there's the start of the Six Nations, the Super 14 and for those not too blinkered to be able to enjoy it, Super League.

Indeed, of those three it's the outset of the Super League campaign that may even excite me most. While the 15-man game will always be my favoured code, it's the domestic leagues and above all the Heineken Cup that grip me most. The Six Nations, for all its spectacle, remains one of the toughest betting heats while the Super 14 lost my interest a couple of years ago when I found that with all the rule changes I was watching a different sport. Maybe this will be the year that gets me hooked again.

Super League has all the pluses of a long season; games played in rain and sun, even snow, form and patterns you can get stuck into, team news that's changing week by week that can give essential punting pointers. The Six Nations is all over after five matches, barely time to get your betting stategy sorted.

That's not to do down the Six Nations, of course. Few other tournaments in any sport arouse the same fierce but friendly passions, and even of it all goes wrong, there's always next year, unlike the World Cup with its four-year wait.

The frustrations of betting on the tournament, though, are all too evidentas after one round of matches were little closer to being able to judge the  big sides.

The outright betting is still between France and Ireland, and while the French did at least avoid what many saw as a potential banana skin against Scotland in Edinburgh on Sunday, it's fair to say neither of the market leaders have shown their full hand yet.

Both teams started brightly enough but were pretty much going through the motions. Neither scored a try after half-time and there was a sense that it was down to more than a bit of rustiness that needed to be got out of the system.

France and Ireland meet at the Stade de France on Saturday in what many see as the title decider, and you just know there's a lot in both lockers just waiting to come out.

Ireland have a dreadful record in France, having won on just one of their last 19 visits. But stark as that figure is, it is dangerous to attach too much importance to stats like that.

Rugby is a fast-changing game and the fact that Ireland couldn't buy a win in France in the 1980s or 90s has no bearing on 2010. The Irish, after all, had never won a Grand Slam since 1948 until last year, and they have never played in Paris under Declan Kidney.

As for France, well rather than say it myself, i will refer you to the IRB's excellent statisical analaysis report of the 2009 Six Nations:

"A statistical analysis of France's matches did not associate France with any particular style of play. They did not excel in any of the core elements of the game but neither did they fail. It was also difficult, if not impossible, to extract any recurring characteristics of French play."

That last sentence is about as close as you can get to a scientific synthesis of the old cliche "it just depends which France will turn up". The rugby boffins have confirmed what the pundits have always said - Les Bleus just do it their own way.

So too, it seems, do England, and the opening ten minutes of their match against Wales on Saturday will have left their backers - myself inluded - with sagging shoulders and sinking hearts. Phase after phase of forwards carrying the ball into contact saw them being nudged back a few metres every time, the same old scenario.

They probably deserved their win against a Wales side who were spirited but missing key names, but England need to do a lot more.

The good news is that they have a crucial win under their belts and with the confidence that brings, a trip to Italy could bring another spark to their play.

Italy at least kept up their record as the most profitable side to follow on the handicap as they were beaten 29-11 by Ireland to stay within a 21-point start. The start against England looks set to be in the low teens – England's Six Nations wins in Rome from 2000 to 2008 have been by 47, 36, 41, 15 and four points.

Scotland were disappointing in defeat to France and coach Andy Robinson looks set to make changes for Saturday's visit to Wales, where they last won in 2002. Expect both teams to be fired up for this one after opening defeats.

First up on TV though on Friday it's the Cheetahs against the Bulls followed by Wigan v Hull KR. Lovely.