GRAHAM WOODS

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Momentum is key in Six Nations series of one-offs

IT’S not the first time.

Not the first time that England have flattered to deceive.

An opening Six Nations win against Wales was surely the perfect preparation for a trip to Rome, but then it was a case of one step forward, two steps back as Martin Johnson’s team came back from Italy with a scrappy 17-12 victory.

And of course, it's not the firsttime that Italy have given more than was expected.

Amid all the finger-pointing at England's shortcomings it shouldn't be forgotten that Italy have yet again covered the handicap, in this case with some ease as they could be backed with a 15-point start and England barely scored that many points.

That's two out of two on the handicap for the Azzurri this year, and 33 from 52 in their entire Six Nations history, ensuring a decent profit if you'd just backed them blindly.

Are they just consistenly underrated by bookmakers, who feel sure that punters will always come for the favourite no matter where they pitch their line?

There is undoubtedly an element of that, but it's also aconsequence of the way the game is going that a team like Italy can boast a winning record for punters despite having won only six times since joining the Six Nations in 2000.

Italy are the weakest team in the tournament but aren’t getting torn apart as they were at the start of the millennium, just as at the last World Cup the minnows weren’t being swept aside with the same ease they were in previous competitions.

I’m sure the kind ofheavy defeats we saw ten years ago were down to a lack of fitness, organisation and technical skill, all of which the players have caught up with as professional rugby has established itself and players from countries like Italy and also Argentina, have been signed by top-flight clubs in England and France.

To go from being a whipping boy to a winner is a long, long journey.

Italy are still on the opening stretch - be defensive, negative even, hard to beat. Play through the forwards, use the boot, frustrate and look for mistakes.

No wonder teams are finding it hard. Ireland weren’t that convincing in their first game, and as England’s Jonny Wilkinson said after Sunday’s match: “More and more teams are going to come away from Rome just pleased with a win.”

Of course England say they were happy with the win, but as usual it’s not good enough for the pundits who pick apart every detail of every performance.

And it’s true that the if the performance on Saturday is reproduced against Ireland or France in the coming weeks England will lose those matches.

But after ten yearsof the Six Nations, one thing that has become abundantly clear is that it is a series of one-off matches.

Momentum is a key word that so many players stress, and teams that can build it  usually win - like Ireland last year or Wales the year before. But how close did the Irish come to blowing their Grand Slam in 2009 when Stephen Jones missed a penalty for Wales in the last minute?

And how close did Wales look to winning all their matches when they were being pummelled by England in the first half of their opening game the year before?

“In any game anything can happen,” is a favourite mantra of RPSPORT colleague Kevin Pullein.

And, as always, he is right.