Weblog: The football punter
The stats are on my side. You do the mythsI’VE done some proper statistical research as we head into the knockout phase of Euro 2012 and it all adds up to a betting certainty tonight.
Germany and Greece will between them produce under 2.5 goals in Gdansk and, joy of joys, I’m getting a bit of even money about that very scenario.
The science? Okay, here goes. In the first round of group games, with all the teams brim full of tension and determined not to get chinned, five of the eight matches produced less than three goals.
In the last round of group games, with the pressure stakes cranked up a notch higher, six of the eight games produced under two-and-a-half.
Get it? As the stakes soar and the magnitude of the prize gets ever nearer, these sides all start to clam up so I’m expecting the Germans and Greeks to grind to a halt so spellbound are they by the stage of the competition at which they find themselves.
Greece’s three games have produced only six goals, Germany’s seven. It’s a no-brainer.
Oh yeah, and Mrs B has brought to my attention that in-form Sissi the tortoise, a worthy successor to Paul the Octopus, has gone for 1-0 Germany. So there.
There’s definitely a myth with the Germans that because they’ve got a load of lads from free-scoring Bayern Munich, have a right-back who plays so far upfield that he can maintain a dialogue with the stewards behind the opponents’ net and were once managed by Jurgen Klinsmann, they’re going to get loads of goals.
Well I don’t do myths. Greece will stop Germany from playing, there will be lots of diving and yellow cards, it’ll be horrible to watch and, as Sissi points out, the Germans will win 1-0.